Gabor Horvath: Ukrainians should remember that the start of the negotiations is not the end of the story
08.12.2023
Gabor Horvath
Lately, we have been witnessing sabotage among member states, because in some of them the influence of Russia, which manipulates nationalist parties, is growing. Is the EU capable of solving this problem: the Newssky correspondent asked Gabor Horvath, the deputy editor-in-chief of the Hungarian newspaper Népszava.
Last Friday, in his weekly radio show, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán detailed his plan to delay the start of negotiations about Ukraine’s accession to the European Union. Instead of beginning the accession process, he offered a Strategic Partnership Agreement after which, based on the experience, five or ten years from now the EU should revisit the issue. According to him, the start of the accession negotiations is surely not in the interest of Hungary, and he threatened to oppose it if it’s brought up at the next EU summit. He also cited the circumstance that part of Ukraine is under Russian occupation, so «one can’t be sure about Ukraine’s territory».
Simultaneously, the government’s international spokesman, Zoltán Kovacs, on Saturday reacted angrily to the news that former president Petro Poroshenko was stopped from crossing the Ukrainian border on his way to meet with Orbán. According to Kovacs, Hungary doesn’t wish to assist President Zelenskyy’s attempts at political showdowns. His post on X (formerly known as Twitter) argued that the internal fights underline the fact that Ukraine is not ready for the accession negotiations.
As if this wasn’t enough, in Budapest there are rumors, that the image of Volodymyr Zelenskyy almost made it to the thousands of billboards now covering the country. Six months before the elections to the European Parliament and seven months before assuming the EU’s rotating presidency, the Hungarian government started a campaign against Brussels and the «you know who-s» with the slogan «Don’t dance according to their whistle!». According to legend, Zelenskyy’s portrait was removed at the last minute from the gallery of people Hungarians should not listen to. The two remaining faces are of European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and Alex Soros, son of and heir to billionaire George Soros
Orbán’s stance is clear: Ukraine should give up part of its land and gain Russia’s approval before even thinking about the accession. He’s trying to push through this idea without denying the theoretical possibility of a future membership: but by raising impossible practical obstacles. Ukraine needs moral (and other) support now, not five or ten years later. It is general knowledge that the country in its current state doesn’t and simply can’t fulfill all the EU requirements. However, the start of the accession negotiations could give Kyiv a push and could shore up popular support for the resistance against imperial Russia.
Orbán’s delaying tactic is a sign of weakness. He’s in difficult negotiations to free at least some frozen EU funds, which he requires badly as Hungary’s economy is not in good shape. He is also in conflict with the American administration of Joe Biden, whose ambassador is very active in the social media. Hungary can’t attack directly, a position Germany, France, Italy, and Poland all agree upon, still Orbán, for some reason, must show his loyalty towards Vladimir Putin again and again.
In conclusion: a Hungarian veto against the beginning of the talks with Ukraine would be seen as a point of no return. A final break not with the EU bureaucracy in Brussels, but foremost with Germany and Poland. It’s not going to be easy to find a face-saving solution but knowing the skills of Orbán and the sheer strength of the other players, they will probably come up with something. It’s more probable than not, that there will be a start of some process not called accession negotiations or, if it will be called that, they will find a way for Hungary to oppose it without a veto. Whatever happens, Ukrainians should remember that the start of the negotiations is not the end of the story. In the case of Turkey, it’s been 18 years and there is no progress to be proud of.
Maryna Kovalchuk, Newssky’s correspondent (Slovakia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland), head of the V5 Media project, and deputy editor-in-chief, spoke.
