Gábor Horváth: the core of Europe seems to be stable for now
01.09.2023
Gábor Horváth
Recently, we see how populists have become more active all over the world, and in particular in the EU countries. Gábor Horváth, deputy editor-in-chief of the Hungarian newspaper Népszava, told Newssky what the nearest prospect is for the European Union and whether it will withstand the onslaught of populists.
The present, 27-member European Union is very different from the original 6-member European Coal and Steel Community, and we’re not in 1951, when memories of the world war were merely six years old. So it is only natural that politics in the member countries might hugely differ from each other, while extreme ideas and dangerous populism seem less scary. In 78 years, we have almost totally lost direct human connection to the prewar era and its deadly populist tendencies, just like we might lose immunity from the flu unless we get reminder shots. The 2008 economic crisis shook the European Union. Its internal solidarity came under question as Greece needed to be saved from bankruptcy; the divide between the «frugal» north and «lazy» south became obvious, while new members on the eastern flank jealously bickered about their promised funds. In a few years, the majority of the United Kingdom voted for Brexit, and Donald Trump was elected President of the United States. With Viktor Orbán and Jaroslaw Kaczynski at the helm of their respective countries, and with the rise of AFD in Germany, Vox in Spain, Marine Le Pen’s party in France, and Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers in Italy, it seemed that far-right populism was the thing of the day. Then the reminder of the flu shot came in the face of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. With new priorities becoming just too obvious, Europe’s immune system kicked in. Mainstream parties formed viable coalitions, and voters started to show more responsibility, even if they didn’t necessarily feel special sympathy towards their actual governments. Historians reminded us of the European Union’s past, which was extremely rich in both crises and their solutions through compromise and cooperation. The EU is slow and sometimes just way too difficult, but in the end, it proved to be an effective manager of problems. There is no reason to think that populists can run over its built-in defenses at a time when, in the East, Russia is trying to achieve its geopolitical goals by brute military force. At times of war, there is usually not much tolerance for those remaining on the fence. Meloni and Kaczynski seem to understand this, leaving Orbán alone in his swim against the current. While AFD gained some room and Vox came dangerously close to becoming the junior partner in the next Spanish government, the core of Europe seems to be stable for now. The coming elections in Poland will give us a sign that we can breathe with some relief, but even if PiS remains in charge, Warsaw will probably continue to stay loyal to at least some of the EU’s founding principles. That leaves Orbán alone out there, looking for his future in the Russian wilderness. But he is only a side motive in the overall picture: the future of the European Union promises to be wild but worth the ride.
Maryna Kovalchuk, Newssky’s own correspondent (Slovakia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland), head of the V5 Media project, contributed
