Gabor Horvath: Europe’s economic weight requires a responding military component
12.03.2024
Gabor Horvath
Is Europe ready for changes in its security situation in the event of Donald Trump’s potential return to power, the Newssky’s correspondent asked Gabor Horvath, deputy editor-in-chief of the Hungarian newspaper Népszava, to comment.
In case Donald Trump wins the US elections in November, it is obvious that Europe will have no choice but to prepare for war with Russia on its own. Trump’s first presidency should have led to this conclusion, as it showed that American isolationism regained strength and US involvement in a future major conflict can’t be taken for granted. Looking back, it took the enormous efforts of two former presidents, Woodrow Wilson, and Franklin D. Roosevelt, to bring the United States to the rescue of Europe in both previous world wars. What seems to be so obvious today was far from being that at the time of those decisions.
What do you think changed with the collapse of the USSR?
Later, during the Cold War, the United States was deeply interested in Europe’s security, but things changed again with the demise of the Soviet Union: the global ideological threat was removed. It was only a matter of time before isolationism returned.
Is Trump a phenomenon?
Trump is not as much the cause of the phenomena as the mere vessel of the reemerging – and seemingly practical – philosophy impregnating part of the American elites for significant periods of history. Europe faces the same dilemma even if Joe Biden beats Trump for the second time. No one can be sure when Washington will turn its back on Europe to pursue its interests somewhere else, like Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
Is the emergence of joint European armed forces possible?
Big ships are slow to change course, but in the case of European defines, the process takes ridiculously long. Some six decades ago, it was French President Charles de Gaulle who first tried to overcome forces of inertia, and the idea of a joint European defense force has been floating around ever since. There is no alternative to it, but it’s far from being an easy step. The enormity of the problem starts with the financial aspect: in 2023, the U.S. committed to defense an estimated 860 billion dollars, or about 68% of the combined total of all NATO allies. Even if only a small part of it served the security of Europe, it is obvious that there is simply no quick replacement.
The leadership, for sure, is held by London, Paris, and Berlin?
But there are two other nuclear powers and numerous capable armed forces in the alliance to immediately come up with a significant force of deterrence if there is a political will. The Eastern flank is all in – maybe except for two militarily insignificant members, Hungary and probably Slovakia. The two major countries in the region, Poland, and Romania, have their reasons for entering the deal; there is little doubt that the UK, France, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Germany will take the lead, with Italy and Spain in tow. For Finland, Sweden, and Norway, it will be a no-brainer to chip in.
The major obstacle on the road to fast action could ironically be the U.S. unwillingness to relinquish its leverage in European matters. But whoever comes to power in Washington, Europe’s economic weight requires a responding military component. To create one, the countries will have to move towards a closer political union, which, once again, will be met with anger by Viktor Orbán. The results of the elections to the European Parliament will give us a hint if federalism, or the Europe of nation-states, gets a new impulse.
For reference:
Isolationism is a term used to refer to a political philosophy advocating a national foreign policy that opposes involvement in the political affairs, and especially the wars, of other countries. Thus, isolationism fundamentally advocates neutrality and opposes entanglement in military alliances and mutual defense pacts.
Maryna Kovalchuk, Newssky’s correspondent (Slovakia, Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland), head of the V5 Media project, and deputy editor-in-chief, contributed.
