Horváth Gábor: Start of the journey is a cause for celebration
27.11.2023
Horváth Gábor
It is likely that the EU will start negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova on joining the Union in December. How, in his opinion, this process is taking place, the Newssky correspondent asked Horváth Gábor, the deputy editor-in-chief of the Hungarian newspaper Népszava.
Every journey starts with the first step. The start of the negotiations on Ukraine’s and Moldova’s accession to the European Union, when it happens, is going to be a significant, even historic event for both countries: but only the start of a very long, winding, and possibly never-ending road. Just ask Turkey about it. For the time being a more symbolic step than a practical one, it’s still a welcome sign of Europe’s intentions to acquire new allies and extend a helping hand to new nations. Also, a very bad news for Moscow, it would increase from three to five the number of the former republics of the Soviet Union opting out from the Russian sphere of influence for good.
I wrote that when it happens, because for the time being there is a definitive veto threat from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, and we can’t be sure if it’s only bargaining tactics or a subservient gesture to show his final loyalty to the Russian president Vladimir Putin. If the first, it can and will be overcome by the EU’s majority led by Germany, France, and the new government of Poland. If the latter, it could be the last straw breaking the camel’s back, meaning the start of an all-out political conflict between Hungary and the other 26 members of the union.
Lastly, but perhaps not insignificantly, the EU’s current commissionaire of enlargement and neighborhoods policy is a Hungarian, Olivér Várhelyi, nominated by and until now perfectly loyal to Orbán. He can possibly slow the process down right at its beginning. A delay this year would mean that the Hungarian presidency of the EU in the second part of 2024 would be able to exercise a further negative impact on the negotiations.
The enlargement of the European Union eastwards requires political will and stamina to overcome the inevitable difficulties lying ahead. The political, legal, and economic changes necessary for the accession will prove to be very demanding and sometimes outright painful for the two designated members. So, they will need not just a strong desire, but also patience and fighting spirit. The latter will be especially useful to combat the inevitable animosity of Russia. Even if the accession happens years from now, after the current war ends, Moscow will do everything it can to thwart the plans of Kyiv and Chișinău. This includes attempts to overthrow legitimate governments, efforts to create social disturbances: or even starting new armed conflicts. The European Union, on the other hand, will be interested in playing alone with Ukraine and Moldova and facilitating their reforms as forcefully as possible. The enlargement would strengthen the security of the union, even if in the foreseeable decades it would take extraordinary financial sacrifice from the current member countries. Thanks to the example set in the last 13 years by the Orbán government, the EU will want irrevocable constitutional guarantees against future backslides and changes of heart. Some might consider this too much, even an encroachment on the sovereignty of the designated members, but there is nothing that could be done about it. This will be the price to be paid in exchange for the many advantages coming with the future membership.
Having said all that, the start of the journey is a cause for celebration. Ukrainians and Moldovans alike should take encouragement from it and do what they can to ensure a better life for themselves, their children, and their grandchildren. Finally, this is what moves the world forward.
Maryna Kovalchuk, Newssky’s own correspondent (Slovakia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland), head of the V5 Media project, and deputy editor-in-chief, spoke.
