Gabor Horvath: President Zelensky has played his cards well

24.07.2023 0 By Writer.NS

Gabor Horvath

The results of the summit in Vilnius were perceived differently by different people. Gabor Horvath, deputy editor-in-chief of the Hungarian newspaper Népszava, has shared his view, upon whether the result is good for Ukraine, and what Ukraine should do to become a member of the Alliance, with the Newssky.

Some Hungarians are still upset because the US didn’t intervene militarily in 1956 to save our freedom from the Soviet Union. They are not right, and neither are those who currently think that the West should go to war with Russia. Such a war would bring unbearable suffering for all, the West, Russia, Ukraine and many other countries — and not just due to the obvious nuclear threat. The world economy would crumble, tens of million would starve, much of Ukraine and the border region of Russia would be abandoned for years. In case of such a conflict, democracy would lose its appeal for generations to come, Trump- and Orbán-like populists would reign without leaving the slightest slimmer of hope for those believing in liberalism, human rights and freedom.

These consequences would obliterate any possible positive military outcome. Not mentioning what would happen to Russia under open military rule and what it would mean to its neighbors even if its military power is reduced. By remaining in the middle of the road, the recent NATO summit in Vilnius took the proper decision by keeping the door open for a Ukrainian accession, but postponing it until after the war is over and a peace treaty is signed with Russia. Now, that prospect seems to be in the far future, but it gives Ukraine the hope necessary to keep on fighting and maintains pressure on Moscow to search for peaceful solutions to its security concerns. If the encroaching of NATO was Putin’s worst nightmare, by now he can sleep calmly: it happened and the Earth did not stop spinning.

President Zelensky had a week hand but played his cards well. From Vilnius he took home the firm commitment of NATO not to let Ukraine down. I don’t think he could have hoped for more to start with, but by publicly expressing his – real or pretended — frustration, he took the initiative and didn’t let the organization to triangle and issue vague promises. Kyiv would continue to receive all sort of open and covert support and Vilnius would not turn out to be Budapest-2.

This was the good news. The bad one is that Ukrainian will continue to bear the lion share of the burden of the war and shed their blood on the front lines. Also, it seems unlikely that Russia will suffer such a military defeat that besides returning of all the occupied lands it will immediately accept the idea of the permanent loss of Ukraine. For Moscow as it is, it will be way too easy to keep alive a low intensity military conflict in order to make practically impossible for Ukraine the full membership in NATO, involving the famous Article 5. Of collective defense.

Thus, the mission of Zelensky or any future president of Ukraine tends to nearly impossible: beat Russia militarily and simultaneously, convince the Kremlin that Ukraine does not represent an existential danger. Ukrainians should not give up their goals and dreams but better be aware of the difficult and long road ahead.

Their final freedom will probably come only when Russia transforms into a free and more or less democratic country. Knowing its history, the short term chances might be slim, but Ukraine and the Ukrainians might act as catalysts and help to fasten the process. This is in the common interest of all parties, including Russians and the West.

One more thing: under the current circumstances’ membership in the EU might be easier to achieve. For that, Ukraine should continue its democratic transition even in wartime. Only its success will justify the final sacrifice of its so many sons and daughters.

Українською