Pavel Havlicek: Ukraine’s NATO Drive Fortifies the CEE Position on Russia, Prague is in the Club

07.11.2022 0 By NS.Writer

Pavel Havlicek

Against the background of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of the secession of the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories to Russia and the successful offensive actions of the defenders of Ukraine at the front, Kyiv, however, made two high-profile decisions almost simultaneously. It is about officially sending Ukraine’s application for NATO membership to Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s approval of the NSDC’s decision on the impossibility of any negotiations with Vladimir Putin. Are such steps correct, and is there hope for success? Newssky has asked Pavel Havlicek, who is a Research Fellow at the Association for International Affairs in Prague, to comment.

From my point of view, this is a very logical course of action from the side of the Ukrainian government, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyi. They respond to the urgent need to react to the ongoing Russian aggression, as well as defining future security guarantees that Ukraine needs to overcome the Russian aggression and to prevent it in the future. These are important strategic and political decisions that are aimed at clearly outlining the position of Ukraine vis-à-vis the Western community and showing the way forward in the next strategic steps of the government.

Indeed, especially the motion of Mr. Zelenskyi to embark on the fast-track application into NATO is clashing with the political reality inside the Alliance and the pronounced lack of interest in the step right now. However, it is a legitimate request for the country in Europe following the promise of NATO made in 2008 that Ukraine and Georgia will become members of the Alliance one day.

By its unwillingness to negotiate with Vladimir Putin, Ukraine is aiming at two things. First, it is the specific refusal to negotiate with the war criminal sending a clear message to Moscow as well as to the Russian elite that the President is no longer a legitimate representative for the discussion on the future settlement of the bilateral conflict.

Second, it is also a signal that Ukraine is sending to the West that any kind of negotiations over the head of Ukraine and with the current Russian regime is not acceptable. This is significant since it boosts the logic shared also by the CEE countries that it needs to be Ukraine to decide about the features of the future negotiation and peaceful settlement of the dispute.

How did the promotion to NATO take place in Czech Republic, what was the most difficult, and how did you cope with it?

Czechia has traditionally been one of the countries supporting the EU and NATO accession of both Ukraine and Georgia (in the case of the EU also including Moldova).

This was once again confirmed by the recent common negotiation between the Czech and Ukrainian governments in Kyiv, which confirmed this position and further bolstered it based on the Transatlantic orientation of Ukraine and the Czech support for it, which materialized in the common memorandum.

Therefore, Czechia has joined the club of countries that have previously endorsed this course of action, even if there is no consensus on the issue inside of NATO right now.

At the same time, Czechia can draw from its own experience of joining NATO in 1999 in the first wave of CEE countries, which was allowed by another context in the world, notably weak Russia as well as strong leadership by the United State and the US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, who originated from Prague.

Nevertheless, the current context is much different and challenging for Ukraine, also due to the ongoing war and geography, which foresees that only after the end of the Russian war against Ukraine major (geo)political steps and integration towards the EU and NATO can really take place.

Mr Havlicek’s primary research interests involve Eastern Partnership, Ukraine and Russia, democratization, strategic communication, and countering disinformation