David Stulik: Ukraine’s chances of becoming a member of NATO are greater than those of present-day Georgia

David Stulik

One of the goals of Lithuania’s participation in the NATO summit in Vilnius in July 2023 was to invite Ukraine to join the Alliance. Back in 2008, at the summit in Bucharest, NATO countries recorded the prospect of membership of Ukraine and Georgia. Newssky asked David Stulik, a senior political analyst at the European Center for Security Policy in Prague, to comment on the outlook for both countries.

I think the summit in Vilnius accentuates the declaration that the door to the Alliance is open for Georgia and Ukraine. And this should cement the promise that one day these countries will gain membership in the Alliance. Instead, NATO members perfectly understand that it is necessary to strengthen ties, first, between Ukraine and NATO, but on the other hand, they will not actively move forward regarding the admission of Ukraine to NATO, because the war continues on the territory of Ukraine. After all, you can’t so easily take a country into a war as a member of NATO, because then it would mean that this war formally extends to the entire Alliance.

In my opinion, certain mechanisms will be found to satisfy Ukrainian ambitions, to meet all expectations regarding security guarantees, it will be 100% emphasized that military support for Ukraine will remain one of the very important ways of supporting Ukraine. This will probably be such a maximum. Because large countries as the United States realize that Ukraine cannot accede NATO now. I think the opinion will be accentuated that when the war ends, the door will be opened for Ukraine to join NATO.

Regarding Georgia, of course, the situation is different, but Georgia also does not control all its territory, and military actions on the territory of Georgia are possible in the future. If Georgia were a member of NATO, it would also mean that NATO would be drawn into this war. Many NATO members simply do not want this. Regarding Georgia, there is a significant caveat regarding the attitude of the political elites of Georgia, the current government towards basic values on which Western democratic countries stand, and this will also hinder Georgia’s approach to membership.

Therefore, I would not combine Georgia and Ukraine into one group, because currently, the situations in these two countries are different. Ukraine’s chances of gaining NATO membership after victory are greater than today’s Georgia. This is my opinion.

Українською

Maryna Kovalchuk, Newssky’s own correspondent (Slovakia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland), head of the V5 Media project, contributed