Matouš Horčička: Central and Eastern Europe will feel the consequences of the escalation in the Middle East later
18.10.2023
Matouš Horčička
The oil market is likely to react.
How can the escalation in the Middle East and the crisis in the US Republican Party affect the situation in Europe, particularly in its central-eastern part? Matouš Horčička, who is a Research Fellow of the ASSOCIATION FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS in Prague has shared thoughts with the Newssky.
The issues within the US Republican Party and the US House of Representatives might have much more profound impacts on the situation in Central-Eastern Europe (CEE). In their turn, the current developments in the Middle East also can — at least at this moment. This is mainly due to the limits of the US support to Ukraine, especially Republican representatives’ unwillingness to approve the military aid package as a part of the US budget. Also, the military aid package approval, if any, depends on the speed at which the HoR can elect a new speaker. This process may further postpone the arrival of potential military aid to Ukraine. Nevertheless, the worst possible result of the Republican Party crisis in the longer time horizon would be an extension of the influence of Donald Trump and his supporters on the Republican Party and its political willingness to reach some agreement with the Democrats on the issues affecting Central-Eastern Europe like military aid to Ukraine, but also the US military presence in the NATO’s eastern wing.
Regarding the escalation in the Middle East, I think that any bigger impacts on the CEE will be seen later by the further development of the situation. Nevertheless, what we can see already now, the conflict stirs some anti-Israeli or anti-Palestinian sentiment. In the CEE, it is mainly anti-Palestinian since countries such as Czechia are very pro-Israeli, but for example, in many Arab immigrant neighborhoods in French cities or Berlin there definitely would be a lot of anti-Israeli sentiment, which can result in some violent clashes between the supporters’ groups. In Europe, especially in the West, there also is a heightened security risk due to an increased possibility of acts of terror.
In a general geopolitical perspective though, in my opinion, it mainly depends on how the Arab countries such as Qatar or Saudi Arabia react to the Israeli land invasion of Gaza and the following bloodshed. There might be some oil/gas export restrictions and, therefore, according to market responses in the oil trade which absolutely can impact the CEE. Moreover, if groups such as Hezbollah with obvious direct links to Iran get involved in the conflict, there might be further escalation including not just Israelis and Palestinians, but also Iranians, which might lead to further diplomatic problems and a diversion of the world’s focus from events happening in Ukraine. Nevertheless, this is not the case, yet.
Maryna Kovalchuk, Newssky’s own correspondent (Slovakia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland), head of the V5 Media project, and deputy editor-in-chief, contributed.
