Gregory Mesezhnikov: The European integration project is the best thing the world has ever seen

Is Europe ready for changes in its security situation with a potential return of Donald Trump to power, – the Newssky correspondent has asked Gregory Mesezhnikov, president of the Institute of Civil Affairs in Slovakia, to comment.

The US presidential election may become a key development, not only between neighboring countries and international organizations but also a key moment in the development of all humanity.

The results of these elections will determine whether the world will continue to develop according to the patterns and patterns that have continued since the end of the Second World War. Despite certain wars, confrontations, a bipolar world, contradictions between individual states, the world managed to prevent catastrophes.

I would like to believe that regardless of the results of the American elections, there will be no catastrophes, but in the event of Donald Trump’s victory, the world will become more complicated, which will not be easy to disentangle given the already enshrined principles and norms in the international system, such as international law.

Military doctrines of the powers…

Also in its official structure, called the UN, which remains to be the worldwide global organization.

Its effectiveness is questionable…

And so it is, but at the same time it creates certain limits. So, it seems to me that, given Trump’s actions during his first presidency, his words and actions since the end of his presidency, he can become an ally of the forces that seek a complete overhaul of all the rules.

If we look at the international arena, we will understand that such forces are concentrated in the international pariah states (exiles) – with authoritarian or totalitarian regimes that oppress their own peoples and try to change the picture of the world through their military and geopolitical expansion. Such states support all dictatorial regimes.

One of these countries, Russia, is waging a war against Ukraine, and in the end, it pulls in other participants in such a shameful international support the Russian Federation, to some extent. Russia broke all the rules (written and unwritten), besides, it also seized a piece of the neighboring country, formally annexed it, despite the fact that it does not control the seized territory.

So, if Donald Trump wins this race, in my opinion, he will be inclined towards pariahs, in particular with the Russian Federation, he can conclude some agreements or protocols on coexistence, with the recognition of some special role that does not correspond to the current norms. This prospect causes the greatest concern, because in all the time since 2014, when Trump was not even the president of the United States, then during the years of his presidency, when the Russian Federation followed the shameful path of the occupier, Donald Trump has never once spoken critically of Russia or Putin .

Yes, he even had a meeting with Putin in Helsinki.

Yes, the impression of that meeting remained terrible. Against the background of Putin, Trump looked like a weak person (although at the time of the meeting, Trump was the leader of the most powerful state and at the same time the free world). So Trump’s victory may affect the overall picture of the world. It is likely that pariah states will try to increase their influence on civilization.

Do you remember his statements about NATO?

During his presidency, Trump repeatedly questioned the need for North Atlantic cooperation, complained to NATO member countries that they do not invest enough money in defense. He said something like – they don’t pay us for defense. This is delusional! States invest resources in their defense, invest a lot, at least 2 percent of GDP, and these funds are not provided by the United States.

It should be noted that over the past few years, most NATO members give two percent of GDP, including Poland and even more.

One of the likely scenarios in the case of Trump’s presidency is that he will try to isolate himself from Europe, he does not like Europe, he has a superior attitude towards the EU in general.

In fact, despite a number of remarks and questions, the project of European integration is the best thing that happened in the world. If he tries to distance himself from Europe, according to John Bolton, Trump will withdraw the US from NATO. If this happens, the entire system of North Atlantic security, its obligations, will be destroyed, and Europe will have to concentrate on security and defense alone. Despite my skepticism, I have some optimism about such a situation that some kind of European security organization will be created that will be able to replace NATO if necessary, American troops will be withdrawn, and European states will have to rally and regroup into such a regional security organization.

A good indication of such a perspective is the current behavior of Europe in relation to Ukraine.

So, given the certain decline of the USA in this regard, on the Mexican narrative of the Republicans, Europe promptly allocated financial support to Ukraine, thanks to which the Ukrainian state will stand.

Regarding armaments…Currently, Europe does not have sufficient arms, although it is constantly working on it. At the same time, US arsenals have considerable volumes. And in case of providing arms to Ukraine, the power of the USA will not decrease. That is, it is currently impossible to replace the USA as a supplier.

However, an initiative was recently drawn up. In particular, the Czech authorities found a lot of ammunition for Ukraine in some country (they don’t say in which country). Currently, the financing of this option is being resolved, I am sure that the money will be found.

The advanced part of the European establishment is aware of everything, as well as responsibility. Recently, Mark Rutte (prime minister of the Netherlands) said in good humor that it is time to stop whining, complaining – what will happen when Trump comes to power. We have to prepare for it. Fortunately, there is already an understanding of the moment.

Radek Sikorski (Poland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs) generally said what could happen in Europe if the US stopped helping. He does not rule out a possible clash with Russia. Meanwhile, Putin threatens with a nuclear bomb. In view of this, Sikorski does not reject the placement of nuclear weapons in Poland. Europe understood that appeasing the aggressor does not work. An aggressor understands only force.

From 1949 to the present day, transatlantic cooperation has succeeded in stopping the spread of communism and other infections in the world, restraining aggressive forces, in particular the Soviet Union. Without NATO, this would be impossible.

This is a kind of cold shower for those Euro-hypocrites who criticized America, were always unhappy, but if America leaves Europe, they will cry that they have been left alone.

I hope that the fainting will be in time.

Trump sympathizes with dictators, he shook the shoulder of Kim Jong-un, speaks positively of Comrade Xi, only with Iran he has not done well yet. Trump dreams of the disappearance of parliamentarianism and courts. Fortunately, this is not possible in the United States. After all, each state is like a separate state. Instead, these are still conversations, and we believe that after the American elections, the world order will remain as usual.

Maryna Kovalchuk, Newssky’s correspondent (Slovakia, Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland), head of the V5 Media project, and deputy editor-in-chief, contributed.

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