Dániel Bartha: Ukraine’s EU Accession Currently Looks Easier than NATO Entry
21.10.2022
Dániel Bartha
Against the background of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of the “joining” of the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories to Russia and the successful offensive actions of the defenders of Ukraine at the front. Kyiv made two high-profile decisions almost simultaneously. It is about officially sending Ukraine’s application for NATO membership to Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s approval of the NSDC’s decision on the impossibility of any negotiations with Vladimir Putin.Do you think this is correct? President of the Center for Euro-Atlantic Integration and Democracy Dániel Bartha (Budapest) commented for the Newssky:
Although from a moral perspective these steps can be fully supported, they mainly have a political and symbolic relevance at this point. While some member states would support a special accession mechanism to NATO, the majority is more cautious. Without peace and territorial integrity, challenged membership would mean invoking Article 5 and getting actively involved in the war with our military. Obviously, the majority would never support that.
This brings us to the second point. At this point to have a peace agreement with Russia, even if Ukraine wins militarily, you must negotiate with Putin. While I fully respect the decision not to negotiate with him, the simplest transition of these two decisions is that although Ukraine applies for membership, they consider the process to start after the war. Even then, there will be several obstacles related to requirements for democratic principles and rule of law. For the moment nobody cares about these questions but previously many countries, including Hungary, raised some issues. In the Hungarian case, it was minority rights. I believe this will have to be solved as well to go forward with any process.
How did the promotion to NATO take place in Hungary, what was the most difficult, and how did you cope with it?
It was a different political situation when we wanted to guarantee our safety by joining the Western bloc. We sent our application right after the Soviet Union and Warsaw pact was dissolved. At that time, the common understanding was that no EU membership is possible until NATO membership. The war in Yugoslavia strengthened the feeling that we need to guarantee our security.
In Ukraine’s case, I think the situation is different in the sense that from a political perspective in the present state of the war EU accession seems to be an easier a less risky question. However, the main difference between the two processes is also the complexity, as was seen in the recent accession process of Finland and Sweden. The NATO accession process would most likely take in a fully peaceful situation of 4–5 years while the realistic minimal length of the EU accession with the present requirements is about 10–15, but in case of any deceleration in the legislative process, 20–25 is more likely. That is why Ukrainian politicians should be more cautious about promises. I don’t see yet that the EU will radically change the membership process.
Maryna Kovalchuk, Newssky, contributed
