Pavel Havlicek: I am rather optimistic about the EU Ukraine and Moldova enlargement, but there is a long way ahead

Pavel Havlicek

It is likely that the EU will open negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova on joining the Union in December. A Newssky’s correspondent asked Pavel Havlicek, who is a Research Fellow at the Research Center in Prague, to share his vision of the process.

My belief and current reading of the situation is that there will be a green light from the European member states on the political level during the European Council session in December. However, it will take some more time before the countries actually open the accession talks due to the technical character of the process as well as making the most of the conditionality to push some unpopular changes both in Ukraine and Moldova since they are so much already deep in the process, and they are expected to act on this based on the pressure from their societies.

Hence, I am rather optimistic about the process but also see the long way ahead that is to be expected on the side of Ukraine and Moldova. Which should really prepare their societies for several years of hard work before things actually start coming together and get them closer to the European Union.

That is why I can imagine that there will be strong pressure to find some kind of in-between solution, which would also deliver on the process. And to the associated countries’ societies should see the concrete benefits of the process sooner than within numerous years (from 2030 onwards).

Finally, there is more and more pressure on the EU and its member states to stay true to its promises and expectations from the associated countries, including to deliver on bilateral as well as multilateral commitments, which were in the past undermined by the behavior of individual members, including Greece, France, or Bulgaria, which kept blocking closer integration of individual Western Balkan countries inside the EU structures. This will need to change to motivate both sides to deliver and make the enlargement policy a more efficient tool of the EU’s foreign policy.”

Maryna Kovalchuk, Newssky’s own correspondent (Slovakia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland), head of the V5 Media project, contributed.

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