Oleksandr Duleba: While populists become more active, their support in Europe does not increase
08.09.2023
Oleksandr Duleba
Recently, we have seen how populists have become more active all over the world, and in particular in the EU countries. Oleksandr Duleba, a senior researcher at the Slovak Association of Foreign Affairs in Bratislava, told Newssky what the near future is for the European Union and whether the Union can withstand the onslaught of populists.
The trend of political populism has been growing since the financial crisis. This is the price to pay for politics and political culture in many European countries. First, the financial crisis, then the COVID-19 pandemic, then the energy crisis, and then the consequences of Russia’s war against Ukraine. That is, the number of people who are disappointed and who have a certain frustration is increasing. The quality of life has deteriorated. I’ve noticed that supporters of right-wing extremist parties as well as left-wing extremist parties in Slovakia were at a level of 10 percent before the crisis, and now this number has doubled. It’s palpable.
There exist 20 percent of citizens who are supporters of the anti-system. They give preference to those political parties and their leaders who go against the current rules. This tendency can also be traced with relevance to the attitude of Slovak men and women toward the Russian-Ukrainian war and its understanding. They have this attitude: “This war is not ours; we urgently need peace.” It seems to them that their frustration and their new problems are the result of this war. Therefore, they prefer those politicians who say that they are changing Slovakia’s policy regarding the war in Ukraine.
As for Slovakia, today 47 percent of the population clearly understands who the aggressor is, who the victim is, and who should be helped. That is, 47 percent understand, 20 percent support the anti-system, and another 30 percent do not know and do not have a position, so they can change their opinion of all myths. In 2020, Igor Matovich won the election on the basis of populism, and all political technologies agreed that he won on the basis of a video that supported 25 percent of his 8–10 percent. It was a video in which, three days before the election, he showed the villa of the finance minister of the previous government, Fico, and emphasized that it was Slovak state property and that it should be regulated as state property. This video struck a chord with the 30 percent of Slovaks who were undecided and made them turn on Matovich.
That’s why the structure of political Slovakia is as follows: 47 percent know what is black and what is white; there are 20 percent anti-systemic; and 30 percent are those who always fall on the hook of populists who affect their emotional state. In Germany, by the way, there are currently 21 percents of anti-systemic supporters of the AFD party. That is, even in the last country in Europe, there are such general trends. For example, if, by the day of the elections in Slovakia, the armed forces of Ukraine reach the Sea of Azov, it will impress up to 30 percent of voters, who are not been determined, then this will help the parties that support Ukraine win the elections.
Therefore, systemic governance reforms are necessary in order for society to modernize and develop. It is good that, apart from Hungary, there are no monopoly parties in Europe. For example, such a phenomenon as the appearance of Trump is also a product of the financial crisis. In all European countries, there are as many as 20 percent of frustrated people who believe that their political system does not reach them; they feel bad about it, they think that the system of government in their country is autocratic, and they need a wise king to solve all their problems; they do not want to take responsibility for their lives. Such are Putin in Russia, Orbán in Hungary, and Erdoğan in Turkey. There are no more of them. That is, there is only one Orbán in Europe, but he is not an alternative for the future; he is nothing, a wave… I am sure that the percentage of such people is not increasing. After all, despite all the calamities (financial crisis, pandemic, war in Ukraine), there are no more of them. I am not pessimistic about the future of Europe, Slovakia, or Ukraine!
Maryna Kovalchuk, Newssky’s own correspondent (Slovakia, Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland), head of the V5 Media project, and deputy editor-in-chief, contrubuted.
