Gabor Horvath: Unfortunately, this war is going to last

Gabor Horvath

As is already known, Ukraine and the United States have supposedly reached an agreement on a ceasefire in the Ukrainian-Russian war. Would Putin agree to the demands, and what will happen next? Gabor Horvath, a deputy editor-in-chief of a Hungarian newspaper Népszava, commented.

I guess President Putin has already answered the first part of your question, so let’s better focus on the possible scenarios.

What could happen in the foreseeable future?

At this stage of the war, neither side is ready for major concessions. President Trump had to use all the tools available to him to pressure President Zelensky into a formal ceasefire offer, and Kyiv continues to insist on security guarantees, which make the whole proposal unacceptable to Moscow. Putin’s goal has not changed: he, at a minimum, wants to install a puppet regime in Ukraine and subdue Europe in the process. Both sides are highly motivated, making Trump’s current effort doomed at birth. The only new element emerging is a theoretical territorial deal returning the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to Ukraine in exchange for the heavily Russian-populated Donbas. But that has been dependent on Zelenskyy’s nod, and he categorically denied any possibility of accepting Russian territorial claims. In any case, Trump has publicly spoken about the probably continuous secret negotiations and mentioned the power plant as a clash point.

How long is this war going to last?

For now, and in the foreseeable future, the war is going to continue. With US military aid returning to its former levels or even increasing, the Ukrainian army should be capable of slowing down or stopping Russia from encroaching. The European Union and some outside NATO members, like the UK, Canada, and Norway, are ready to increase military and other aid to Ukraine while speeding up their defense projects. The war of attrition will further deplete not only the Ukrainian manpower but also the Russian human, military, and economic resources. If, let’s say, a year from now the military situation will resemble the one we observe today, it would become widely obvious that Putin would have suffered a practical defeat. That would be the time for real talks to start. Among others, a European peacekeeping force would suddenly seem much more acceptable to the Kremlin than it is today.

What do you think about Donald Trump’s second presidency?

It would result in a different picture if the US returns to denying Ukraine the weapons and intelligence data necessary for a successful defense. The European support in this case would not be enough to force Russia into a meaningful compromise, but it would still be enough to keep Ukraine in the game. One can easily see the war drag on for more than one year. Also, as of now, much of the American public is behind supporting Ukraine while Trump’s economic and other policies start to lose credibility at home. In the US, in 20 months there will come the midterm elections. Even before that, the weeks and months leading up to the primaries and the campaign will be no time for spectacular American defeat and Russian victory. So, Ukraine must weather about a year before Trump would be forced to side with Ukraine and turn against Putin.

Trump is right when he speaks of the high human toll of the war. Young people keep dying by the thousands. Unfortunately, there is simply no feasible scenario to stop the bloodshed and at least freeze the conflict until Russia.

Deputy Editor-in-Chief (Central Europe and Canada) and Project Manager at V5 Media, Maryna Kovalchuk, contributed.

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