Gabor Horvath: Ukraine has little to fear from the results of the elections to the EP
13.06.2024
Gabor Horvath
Given the trend of the growing popularity of radical right-wing parties on the continent, how do you see our future after the elections? Gabor Horvath, deputy editor-in-chief of the Hungarian newspaper Népsava, explained his vision to the Newssky.
Let’s start with whether these elections will affect Ukraine’s issues in Europe.
Ukraine has little to fear from the results of the elections to the European Parliament (EP). The Russian threat is not ideological or political but straightforward and existential, so the defense from it and the support for Ukraine depend less on the election results than on Europe’s military capabilities and industrial power. In the new European Parliament, the center-right European Peoples Party and the center-left Socialists will surely remain the main forces, and they will be joined by the Greens and the Liberals in their resolve to help Ukraine win, or at least to keep on fighting until Russia realizes its horrible losses and seeks a realistic end to the war.
What might the new European Parliament be like?
At this stage in the European Union, only Hungary’s Viktor Orbán is on the side of Vladimir Putin, but he’s far from being strong enough to move the needle of the common compass toward Moscow.
As you know, new political forces are emerging in Hungary…
The latest polls in Hungary show a quickly emerging new party, stunning both the ruling Fidesz Party and its traditionally weak opposition. The name of the party will sound familiar to Ukrainian ears: the river Tisza connects the two countries, and the Tisza Party (Tisztelet és Szabadság Párt – Party of Respect and Freedom) is fully expected to finish a strong second and to support the common European goals. Anyway, Hungary has only 21 mandates in the European Parliament, of which Fidesz can hope for a maximum of 11, and the far-right Mi Hazánk—Our Homeland—Party for one. These parties will have difficulty entering any strong fraction of the EP, first and foremost because of their pro-Russian attitude.
What is important for Ukraine?
For Ukraine—and Europe and Moscow—the most important elections this year will be held on the other end of the Pond. A potential victory by Donald Trump would create a new situation in which the EU countries would be forced to make crucial decisions of their own. Even in this scenario, one could hardly imagine that the Baltic, Benelux, and Scandinavian countries—Poland, Germany, France, and Romania—would abandon Ukraine. Their combined industrial power would be sufficient to prevent an outright Russian victory, but the long-term balance of military power would almost certainly shift away from the defenders, and a friend in the White House would boost the Kremlin’s fighting spirit. The opposite is true in the case of a continuing Biden presidency, whereas Putin would have to adjust his plans to the fact that the US and its close allies like Canada, the UK, or South Korea will only increase their long-term military assistance to Ukraine.
How are our Chinese and Indian friends feeling?
Undoubtedly, the attention of Beijing and New Delhi is focused on the US elections, and their results will have an impact on the policy of the South.
Not so in the case of the European elections. In the EU, the expected internal power struggles and the coming Hungarian presidency will probably have a short-term negative effect on Ukraine, but it would be so whatever the election’s results.
Maryna Kovalchuk, deputy editor-in-chief (Central Europe and Canada) and head of the V5 Media project, contributed.
