Gabor Horvath: Europe has faced serious dilemmas and must make sudden changes

Gabor Horvath

Considering the trade war declared by the American president against the entire world, Gabor Horvath, the deputy editor-in-chief of the Hungarian newspaper Nepzsava, shared his thoughts on the future of democracy with the NewsSky correspondent.

What could be the consequences of Trump’s trade war for Europe?

It is difficult to see the long-term consequences of Donald Trump’s trade war, as his position and causation are changing. Most people are long-lost at what is on and what is off. Had he stuck with his originally announced tariffs on steel, aluminum, cars, alcoholic beverages, etc., Europe would have faced serious dilemmas and been forced to make sudden changes. The most important would have been to decide whether to reorient itself away from the USA and closer to potential new partnerships with China, India, etc. The EU-US goods trade last year was around 976 billion USD, of which about 370 billion USD were US exports. Of course, there aren’t counting services, where the US has a significant advantage. Such volumes can’t be redirected fast without restructuring the industry and causing great disturbance to the member states.

The EU and the USA were in negotiations about free trade between 2013 and 2018, but during his first term, President Trump withdrew from the proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). The EU, and, oddly but not inexplicably, Elon Musk would gladly return to the negotiating table and discuss a zero-tariff policy. Still, the White House gave no sign of picking up the idea.

Does the EU have the desire and ability to replace the US with other countries as a trading partner?

The time is close when the EU must decide whether it tries to outlast Trump’s second presidency and hopes for the best from 2028 or prepares itself for a long and cold winter in trade relations. In any case, the EU remains a strong promoter of free trade and continues to negotiate such agreements with several countries, from Jamaica and Fiji, through Zimbabwe to Canada. With the United States voluntarily taking a long step back from international trade, the EU will have many more incentives and options to replace the US in some of its traditional commercial relationships.

I see no replacement for the mentioned countries in the trade relations with the EU. Their economies are much weaker than those of the major EU powers and don’t necessarily complement each other.

What can we expect from Slovakia and Hungary?

In the case of Hungary and Slovakia, first, they should give up their EU membership, and such a misguided step would immediately destroy their respective economies and bring on the collapse of their current governments. As for the Hungarian PM, Viktor Orbán, in a recent “town hall meeting” casually mentioned the option of exiting the EU – and then listed several reasons why not to do it right now. To cut a long story short, it is advantageous for Hungary to stay. He didn’t talk about it, but according to the latest poll, 79 percent of Hungarians support EU membership, and only 16 percent want out. Orbán is a gambler, but he’s not stupid.

Deputy Editor-in-Chief (Central Europe and Canada) and Project Manager at V5 Media, Maryna Kovalchuk, contributed.