Zelenskyy warned: it will be very difficult until September
11.04.2026Shadow over the summer: why the President is talking about the worst
When the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy utters the words “it will be very difficult for us until September,” this is not just a statement – it is an alarm signal that sounds against the background of the roar of distant guns and the rustle of news feeds. Imagine a hot summer, where instead of relaxing at sea, there is tension on the fronts, where every day can become a turning point. This phrase, uttered during a press conference, makes the heart sink: is a real storm waiting for us before the autumn calm? We will delve into the context of these words, analyze the reasons for the alarm and see what experts and allies say. Because the truth, like war, does not tolerate illusions.
Context of the statement: what exactly did Zelensky say?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made this statement on July 24, 2024, while talking to reporters after a meeting with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw. "It will be very difficult for us until September," he said, emphasizing the criticality of the coming months.1. According to him, the situation on the front remains extremely tense, and resources are limited. This is not the first such assessment from the head of state: he has previously repeatedly spoken about the lack of weapons and the need for increased support from the West.
Zelensky detailed that the key problem is delays in the supply of weapons from partners. “We are waiting for solutions that can change the situation, but time is running out,” he noted. This statement was made against the backdrop of recent fighting in the Donetsk region, where Russian forces are trying to break through the defenses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Pokrovsk and Chasovye Yar. According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in just 24 hours on July 23, the enemy carried out more than 1200 attacks, focusing the main blow on key areas2.
Analyzing the President's words, we see not pessimism, but a realistic assessment. Until September is the period when new aid packages from the US and the EU are expected, but so far the summer seems to be the hottest in the literal and figurative sense. Zelensky also mentioned diplomatic efforts: negotiations with Tusk concerned not only weapons, but also energy security and sanctions against the aggressor.
Frontline reality: why summer becomes a test
The situation on the front line is key to understanding Zelensky's words. According to British intelligence, as of late July 2024, Russian forces had stepped up their offensive in several areas, using reserves accumulated in the spring. In the Pokrovsky direction, the enemy threw up to 25 soldiers into battle, trying to surround Ukrainian positions.3The Armed Forces of Ukraine hold the line, but at the cost of enormous efforts: losses on both sides reach hundreds per day.
Open source intelligence (OSINT) analysis shows an increase in Russia’s use of Shahed suicide drones, with more than 500 in July, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). These attacks are wearing down air defenses, especially at night. In the Kharkiv region, where fighting has recently intensified, Ukrainian forces have counterattacked, but the enemy is using “meat assault” tactics – massed infantry attacks under artillery cover.
By September, according to forecasts from experts at the Atlantic Council, Russia could mobilize another 100 people if Putin issues a new decree. Ukraine, in turn, is preparing for rotations and strengthening reserves, but the lack of ammunition is a chronic problem. According to the commander of the Armed Forces Support Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Ilya Revchuk, stocks of 155-mm shells are being depleted faster than new supplies are arriving4.
Interesting fact: satellite images from Maxar for July 22 show a concentration of Russian equipment near Toretsk – over 200 units of armored vehicles. This indicates preparations for a major operation that could stretch into the fall.
International support: delays costing lives
Zelensky directly linked the difficulty of the period to delays in aid. In the US, Congress approved a $61 billion package in April, but the first F-16s arrived only in July - six from Denmark and the Netherlands. According to the Pentagon, another 40 fighters are expected by September, but pilot training is ongoing.5.
Europe is taking a more active role: the UK has delivered 30 Challenger tanks and Storm Shadow missiles, and Germany has delivered IRIS-T air defense systems. But despite this, The New York Times writes about a "bottleneck" in logistics: American factories produce only 28 thousand shells per month instead of the required 100 thousand6US President Joe Biden signed a decree on new sanctions against Russia on July 23, but they do not stop drone production in Tatarstan.
Diplomatic dimension: At the NATO summit in Washington on July 9-11, leaders pledged 40 billion euros in aid, but the distribution is uneven. Turkey is blocking some supplies through the Black Sea, and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban continues to sabotage. Zelensky in Warsaw thanked Poland for $4 billion in aid from 2022, including Leopard tanks and artillery systems7.
RAND Corporation forecasts: if delays continue, the Ukrainian Armed Forces could lose 10–15% of their positions in the east by September. But there is also a positive: Israel secretly passed intelligence on Iranian drones to the Russian Federation.
Economic pressure: how war exhausts the rear
Not only the front, but also the rear is under attack. Inflation in Ukraine reached 5,2% in June 2024, according to the State Statistics Service, due to rising energy prices. Russian strikes on the power system - more than 50 in July - left millions of households without electricity8The Ministry of Economy forecasts GDP growth of 3,5% per year, but this is subject to stable aid.
Mobilization affects the labor market: shortage of 200 thousand workers in industry. Farmers in the south lose crops due to minefields - grain exports fell by 20% compared to last year, USDA reports9But there are successes: Naftogaz has restored gas production by 15%, and the IT sector generates 7% of GDP.
The heating season will be critical by September. The EU has allocated 1,5 billion euros for the restoration of thermal power plants, but work is progressing slowly. Economists from the Kyiv School of Economics warn that without $50 billion in frozen Russian assets, the budget deficit will reach $25 billion.
Strategic forecasts: what to expect in the fall
Experts agree: September could be a turning point. ISW predicts that Russia will run out of momentum for the offensive due to logistical problems - shortages of tires and chips due to sanctions. Ukraine prepares counteroffensive in Zaporizhia, using ATACMS missiles to strike the rear10.
Political factor: US elections in November. If Trump wins, aid could be cut, as he promised. Biden announced another $2,3 billion on August 1. In Europe, there are elections in Germany, where the Greens are pressuring Scholz for more Taurus missiles.
Analysis of open sources shows: Russia has lost 750 personnel since 2022, according to the Main Intelligence Directorate. Morale is falling - desertion has increased by 30%. Ukraine, despite fatigue, is holding on: volunteers have raised 20 billion hryvnias for the war.
Voice of the People: How Ukrainians Perceive Anxiety
A poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology on July 20: 68% of Ukrainians believe in victory, but 52% feel tired of war. The hashtag #DoVeresnya is gaining momentum on social networks - people share stories from the front, calling for unity11.
The story of a fighter from the 47th brigade: "It's hard, but we're holding on. In September, we believe in F-16s and shells." Such voices are inspiring. The President emphasizes in his Telegram messages: "We will not give up."
Sources
- Ukrainian Pravda: Zelenskyy about the difficult period until September
- General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Operational summary
- ISW: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
- ArmyInform: Interview with Revchuk
- Pentagon: Aid to Ukraine
- The New York Times: Artillery shortages
- Polish Government: Assistance to Ukraine
- State Statistics Service of Ukraine: Inflation
- USDA: Grain Report
- ISW: Predictions
- KIIS: Survey
