Strike on the occupiers' oil depot and refinery: how the September 5 attack struck at the heart of the Russian energy industry

Attack details: goals, scenarios, results

On the night of September 5, the forces of unmanned systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched simultaneous strikes on two critical infrastructure nodes of the aggressor - the Ryazan Oil Refinery (Russia, one of the four largest in the country, over 17 million tons of oil per year) and an oil depot in temporarily occupied Luhansk.^{1 2 3 4} Both objects were attacked by drones of the “Zhalo Ptakhiv” units of the SBS and the cooperating group of the SSO and GUR of the Ministry of Defense.³

After a precise hit, a large-scale fire broke out on the territory of the Ryazan Oil Refinery, fuel began to leak, and the Russian emergency services were unable to contain the flames for four hours.^{2 5} The Elou AT-6 unit, a key technological module for refining petroleum products, exploded.²

In Luhansk, spills into diesel and gasoline tanks also led to significant fires and reports of multiple detonations.^{1 6}

What really happened: chronology and comments from the parties

Russian official sources initially tried to downplay the consequences: the governor of the Ryazan region, Pavel Malkov, announced the “shooting down of eight drones” and “no casualties.”² However, photos and videos of the fire, as well as satellite images, have shown the scale of the destruction.^{2 5} Independent Russian Telegram channels and Astra resources reported that repair work is continuing with a significant delay.^{2 7}

On the Ukrainian side, the strike was confirmed by the commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces, Robert "Magyar" Brody: the goal is to deplete the enemy's energy infrastructure and make it impossible to quickly restore it without Western technologies.^{3 8}

The Luhansk city administration reported explosions in the area of ​​60 Rudniyeva Street. This facility has already been hit in previous strikes, but this time the destruction of the tanks is also confirmed by satellite images.^{1 6}

Analytics: strategic effect of attacks on Russian refineries

Reuters and The Economist experts have estimated that at least 17–20% of Russia's oil refining capacity will be temporarily out of action due to a wave of drone attacks in 2024–2025.^{7 8 9} This is more than a million barrels of daily production, or tens of billions of dollars in losses for a budget dependent on oil exports.^{5 7}

In an interview with Politico, analysts expressed the opinion that a series of such strikes could force the Russian leadership to sit down at the negotiating table due to the economic catastrophe and the growing shortage of petroleum products in the regions of the Russian Federation.⁷

A similar approach — energy pressure on the aggressor — is reinforced by restrictions on the supply of Western equipment for repairs, which are practically stopped due to sanctions.^{8 9}

Geography and history of strikes: how massively were Russian refineries attacked?

According to the Telegraph and open source analytical resources, as of August–September 2025, attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine covered at least 10 large refineries and over 20 oil storage/transportation facilities.^{9 10} The Ryazan refinery alone has been hit three times since January 2025. Novokuibyshev, Volgograd, Kaluga, Saratov, and five other important complexes have suffered from hits in the past six months.^{10 11}

According to estimates by the Ukrainian military, the Russian oil refining industry lost about 2025% of its capacity after the 21 strikes.⁹

Economic impact: less fuel, rising prices

After a wave of attacks on strategic refineries and oil depots, Russian regions are recording problems with fuel: in a number of regions, queues are growing, prices are rising by 12–18%.^{5 12} The shadow trade in gasoline and diesel in the temporarily occupied territories is increasing, and the Federal Reserve is forced to spend its reserves to maintain prices.

Cases of technical accidents at remaining facilities are increasing due to a lack of components and a personnel crisis amid mobilization and sanctions.^{9 13}

International reaction: market, experts, sanctions

Reuters, Bloomberg, and other leading financial publications note that these strikes led to a short-term increase in global prices for oil and petroleum products, especially for traders in Eastern Europe and Baltic ports.^{7 9} The UN and the G7 countries refrained from harsh comments, but official Washington stated Ukraine's right to "independently configure responses to aggression."

The EU expresses concern about the safety of civilian facilities, but at the same time emphasizes that the impact of the destruction of the refinery will weaken the Russian war economy and force the Kremlin to change tactics.^{7 13}

Military assessment and lessons for offense and defense

The Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces are increasingly using intelligence data and modern technologies, cooperating with local underground organizations in the occupied territories in a futuristic manner.^{3 6} “This is an example of situational synergy,” said one of the speakers of the National Security Council.⁸

The new generation of drones has a range of over 800 km and the ability to carry intelligent warheads.^{8 10} Bottom line: the strategy of targeted attacks on the Russian energy infrastructure is becoming one of the defining elements of the third year of the war.^{8 9 10}

Conclusion: The economics of shocks and the strength of signals

September 5, 2025 is another date in the great energy war. For Russia, it is the “night of long fires,” and for Ukraine, it is a symbol of the ability to strike at the enemy’s most vulnerable points even at a depth of hundreds of kilometers.^{2 8 9}

One attack will not break the war, but a series of them will rapidly bring the crisis of the Russian material and technical base closer and open up new opportunities for political pressure on the Kremlin. The only question is whether the Russian system can withstand a year of weekly losses of billions of dollars, while Europe and Ukraine demonstrate a new level of drone strategy already in September.^{9 12 13}