Trump makes deal with Iran: rating drops to lowest level

US President Donald Trump unexpectedly signed a preliminary framework agreement with Iran that is intended to end the conflict and restore oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, his approval rating among Americans has reached its lowest point since he took office.

Events are unfolding rapidly. Last night, during a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron in Versailles, Trump signed a document that, according to the administration, paves the way for an end to the war that has lasted more than three months. The agreement includes a commitment by Iran not to develop nuclear weapons and the gradual lifting of US sanctions. In return, Tehran is allowed to sell oil freely on world markets.

Framework Agreement and its economic consequences

The document, signed in France, is only the initial stage. A full agreement still needs to be ratified by the US Congress and approved by the Iranian leadership. However, analysts are already seeing the potential for a significant drop in oil prices. According to estimates by the International Energy Agency, the restoration of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz could add up to 2,8 million barrels per day to the market in the next six weeks.

Iran's economy, which has suffered serious losses due to sanctions and military action, is getting a chance for a quick recovery. Experts from the Peterson Institute for International Economics predict that Iran's GDP will grow by 4,7% by 2027 if the final agreement comes into force. At the same time, American oil companies fear increased competition in Asian markets.

Trump's approval rating: lowest in two terms

An NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released on June 18 shows the president’s approval rating at a record low. Only 36% of Americans approve of his performance, while 59% disapprove. The economy is particularly critical: Trump’s approval rating in this area has fallen to 33%. That’s three points below Joe Biden’s worst performance.

Independent voters who previously supported Republicans are increasingly leaning toward Democrats. Strategists from both parties warn that high fuel prices, inflation and the fallout from a war with Iran could significantly affect the 2026 midterm elections. Some of Trump's traditional voters are already saying they intend to abstain.

Delay in appointing director of national intelligence

The Senate has postponed the hearing on Jay Clayton's nomination to be director of national intelligence. Trump personally asked Republicans to delay the process, linking it to a vote on the SAVE America Act and the reassignment of FISA section 702. Bill Pulte will temporarily serve as the head of 18 intelligence agencies.

Democrats have raised concerns about the possible use of government surveillance tools by the CIA against political opponents. Republicans have criticized the acting director's lack of national security experience, a situation that complicates the work of the intelligence community at a time when geopolitical tensions remain high.

Global consequences of the conflict and prospects for peace

The war, which began with the participation of the United States and Israel, has already affected supply chains around the world. Rising energy and food prices are being felt in Europe and Asia. At the same time, Iran can access global financial markets without restrictions for the first time since 1979.

Analysts at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London say the deal could be a turning point in relations between Washington and Tehran. However, many questions remain open: the fate of Iran's nuclear program, security guarantees for US regional allies, and mechanisms for monitoring the implementation of the agreement.

Reaction of the international community

European leaders, including Macron, welcomed the signing of the framework agreement, but called for transparency in further negotiations. China and Russia, which have traditionally supported Iran, expressed cautious optimism. Beijing has already announced its readiness to increase purchases of Iranian oil after sanctions are lifted.

In Israel, the reaction remains more restrained. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stressed the need for strong guarantees that Iran will not resume nuclear development. In Washington, some Republican congressmen are also demanding additional conditions before the deal is finally approved.