Is Trump saving or destroying? How Washington's decisions are killing the Russian economy — and why it might be a coincidence

The world continues to catch its breath with each new statement about sanctions or economic pressure on Russia, but the reality is more complicated: even if Donald Trump does not seek to personally destroy the Russian economy, his policy actually plays the role of an “unexpected sword” for Russian industry, the market, and budgetary stability. What has changed in the geopolitical game this year? Why are even “neutral” American steps vertically knocking down the Russian economy? How is Ukraine reacting to this and what should we expect next? Details, analytics, new world assessments — and the challenges that lie behind the dry statistics of the reports.

The explosive fall of the ruble: a chronicle of the exchange rate “catastrophe”

The beginning of August was marked by another collapse of the Russian currency: the ruble broke through the 100₽ mark for the first time in a year to the dollar and does not stop even against the backdrop of emergency interventions by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation¹. Financiers note: one of the main reasons is the new US restrictions and sanctions aimed at Russian banks, exporters and logistics companies. Most importantly, even steps that are not announced as “strikes on Moscow” have a persistent negative effect on the market¹.

Economists explain: markets react not only to formal laws, but also to the tone of the White House and statements about possible “tough controls on capital.” Trump, even if he publicly avoids aggressive situational decisions, de facto creates an atmosphere of threat for Russian investments.¹

The policy of “random destruction”: sanctions and intercontinental competition

According to leading analysts, Washington's paradoxical strategy is that the harshness of American rhetoric is so toxic to Russian business that even "semi-peaceful" signals drive companies out of the market.¹ Investors do not have stable windows, because sanctions are often imposed in a targeted manner, but painfully for specific sectors - from energy to IT.

The latest August restrictions have hit Russia's transport, agricultural and oil sectors hard. The loss of contracts, shortages of components, lack of maritime insurance - all this is spreading in waves even if Washington does not declare a direct "economic blow".¹.

Most of all, they are looking for a "black move" - they are introducing indirect sanctions against transit, blocking the export of technologies, and disrupting production chains for defense and energy enterprises.¹

Russia's reaction: budget chaos and attacks on "Western agents"

The main challenge for Moscow is unpredictability. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has changed its GDP forecast three times in the past three months, and the government has estimated a budget deficit of more than 10% for 2025.¹Russian media accuse Western governments of “hybrid economic warfare,” and state-owned corporations are massively transferring contracts to yuan and rupees.

Key Kremlin figures are publicly trying to “calm” business and society, promising radical measures: from import substitution to forced internal integration. But even these anti-crisis scenarios are situational, and systemic stability is not visible on the horizon.¹

Ukraine under sanctions: benefits and risks for Kyiv

Experts state: the weakening of the Russian economy opens up new opportunities for Ukraine — investments, exports, cooperation with the EU and US markets. State advisors emphasize: “While Russian companies are forced to flee the global market, Ukrainian business gains access to new contracts, technologies, and partnerships.”

And at the same time, the risks are significant - Russian aggression has not disappeared, and the growing unemployment rate and shortage of budget resources in Russia may lead to even greater radicalization of the authorities and unpredictable geopolitical steps.¹

How the world is reacting: global trends and the “domino effect”

International credit agencies are already downgrading Russia’s ratings to “speculative level.” Virtually all key markets—from the EU to Japan—have restricted not only investments but even bank accounts for Russian clients. This is forcing Russian businesses to seek bypass routes through Africa, the Middle East, India, and China—but the effectiveness of such diversification is low.¹

Analysts predict that Russian markets themselves, faced with prolonged sanctions, could fall into the "pincers" of stagnation for years - while for the West this is a chance to finally cut off Russia from its technological and financial potential.¹

Expert opinion: Trump's policy - logic or coincidence?

Political scientist Andriy Zagorodny, the author of a resonant assessment for “Espresso”, notes: “It’s not a fact that Trump personally wants this — it’s more important for him not to take a step for which he will later have to answer. But the system of decisions that arises in Washington as a reaction to the war, Putin’s actions, and geopolitical threats, without unnecessary pathos, is lazily but consistently destroying the budgets of the Russian Federation.”¹

Zagorodny emphasizes: the US has been pursuing a policy of “invisible strike” for many years, which sometimes brings results even more powerful than ideologically motivated sanctions: “The word may be softer than the sword, but it destroys more.”

The conclusion of a “sharp analyst”: the world is at a crossroads, Russia is trapped

Today, in the global economy, the US is not so much attacking as creating an atmosphere of strategic uncertainty for the Kremlin. Even Trump's "accidental" policies are leading to financial tectonic shifts in Russia: markets are stalling, budgets are melting, social tensions are rising. Ukraine has a chance to use the "window of opportunity", but it must remain alert to changes that will become even more rapid in the event of a new wave of political turbulence.

The main thing is a cool head, a strategy of action, and careful control over risks. Because despite everything, the new reality carries both opportunities and threats - history is continuing right now.

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