Trump and Taiwan: weapons as a bargaining chip

In May 2026, the words of the American president once again forced the island democracy to reconsider its defense plans and economic strategies.

When Donald Trump, in a May interview with Fox News, called arms sales to Taiwan “a great bargaining chip” in negotiations with Beijing, the island immediately recalled the worst-case scenarios. Taiwan, which has relied on American security guarantees for decades, suddenly found itself facing the prospect that its defense capabilities could become a bargaining chip. This is not just another statement - it is a signal that forces a rethink of the entire architecture of relations between Washington, Taipei and Beijing.

The statement that shook the region

In an interview that came just after Trump's visit to China, the US president bluntly stated that the $14 billion arms package, which has been delayed for several months, "depends on China." He emphasized that it is "a lot of weapons" and a great bargaining chip. Beijing has long considered Taiwan its province and does not rule out a forceful scenario. Now, Washington seems ready to use defense aid as a bargaining chip.

In May 2026, analysts at the International Crisis Group noted that such statements were fueling Taiwanese fears that the island might find itself not at the negotiating table, but on it. Taiwan had already received approval for a separate $11 billion package in December 2025, but Beijing responded with large-scale military exercises around the island.

Chips, investments and new realities

In addition to weapons, Trump once again raised the topic of Taiwanese semiconductors. He called on leading companies, including TSMC, to move production to the United States, calling it “the best thing to do.” Taiwan currently controls more than 90% of the world’s production of cutting-edge chips used in artificial intelligence, smartphones, and military equipment.

As of May 2026, TSMC had already invested $165 billion in factories in Arizona. The Taiwanese government has pledged a total of $250 billion in investment in the US semiconductor industry as part of a new trade deal with Washington. However, the US president’s claim that Taiwan “stole” technology a decade ago has sparked renewed criticism on the island.

Lai Chin-te's position and Taipei's reaction

Taiwan's President Lai Chin-te, who has been in office for two years, has yet to visit the US mainland. Trump hinted in the same interview that the island's current leadership "wants independence" and is counting on American support. The Taiwanese presidential office responded with restraint: "The consistent US policy towards Taiwan remains unchanged." Official Taipei stressed that the Republic of China is a sovereign democratic state, and arms sales are regulated by American law.

Atlantic Council analysts noted in May 2026 that Trump's rhetoric is as transactional as possible, but real security policy has not yet undergone radical changes. Taiwan is closely monitoring every word, because not only defense capabilities but also the economic stability of the entire region depend on it.

Geopolitical context of May 2026

After his May summit with Xi Jinping, Trump did not change his official language on Taiwan, but he did use some of the Chinese rhetoric. Beijing traditionally calls Lai an “independence advocate” who could lead to war. In May 2026, China continues to conduct regular military exercises near the island, and Russia, whose President Vladimir Putin is planning a visit to Beijing, has shown support for the Chinese position.

The United States remains Taiwan's largest arms supplier. At the same time, Washington is increasingly promoting its own semiconductor industry to reduce its dependence on Asian manufacturers. Taiwan, in turn, is trying to diversify its risks by developing partnerships with Japan, South Korea and the EU.

What's next: scenarios and expectations

Taiwan is expecting new decisions on arms supplies in the coming months. If Washington does indeed start using them as a bargaining chip, the island will be forced to accelerate its own defense programs and seek alternative sources of technology. Experts believe that the key factor will remain not rhetoric, but concrete actions by the US administration.

Taiwan's economy, heavily dependent on chip exports, is already adapting to the new conditions. Companies are increasing overseas investment and the government is strengthening national security programs. In May 2026, the island is demonstrating a calm but determined willingness to defend its sovereignty regardless of external claims.