Shmyhal warned: complex outage schedules will be in effect on Tuesday and Wednesday due to frost

When the temperature drops and the Russian strikes on the energy sector have not yet paid off with a full-fledged repair, the country's main resource suddenly becomes not only electricity, but also trust - that schedules will be honest, hospitals will not be left in the dark, and every hour of light will be distributed truly fairly.

Shmyhal's statement: what awaits Ukrainians on Tuesday and Wednesday

Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal warned that on Tuesday and Wednesday, February 10-11, due to severe frosts, Ukraine's power system will operate according to "complex outage schedules," similar to those that have already been in effect in previous days.^{6 8 11} In an address published on Telegram and quoted by Ukrainian media, he stressed that repair work at generation and distribution facilities continues around the clock, but low temperatures significantly increase electricity consumption and exacerbate capacity shortages.^{6 8} According to the minister, even with some support for the system by solar generation during the day, it will not be possible to avoid stricter restrictions during peak load hours.^{6 8} .

Shmyhal stressed that the government is reviewing the list of critical infrastructure facilities that have a priority right to electricity supply^{6 8} . The absolute priority, as he emphasized, is given to hospitals, water utilities and social facilities - these institutions should be guaranteed to remain with electricity, while other structures will be transferred to autonomous generation as much as possible in order to free up more electricity for the population.^{6 8} Separately, the minister promised to strengthen control over the fair distribution of electricity so that no region or community finds itself in knowingly worse conditions.^{6 11} .

Why do frosts hit the power system so hard?

Frost itself does not destroy infrastructure, but it dramatically changes the balance of supply and demand in the energy system. According to Shmyhal, even after the most severe blows of 2022–2024, the energy sector entered separate winter periods with limited reserves of strength: many substations and thermal power plants operate “at the limit”, and generation does not have time to fully recover between attacks^{3 9} When severe frosts are added to this picture, consumption increases across the country - from electric heaters in homes to additional load on heating systems that operate on worn-out equipment.^{3 9} .

Analysts who evaluated Shmyhal's new anti-crisis plan to overcome the consequences of blackouts emphasize that the weather itself only "highlights" the system's weaknesses, which existed even before the shocks and frosts.¹² Individual substations and distribution networks were repaired “in operational mode” for years, without a full modernization of the equipment, and the successful passage of the previous winter was partly explained by milder temperatures, rather than a full restoration of the power system.¹² Now that the cold and the attacks have coincided, the reserve of strength is being depleted faster, and the state is forced to manage consumption more strictly.

Repairs continue around the clock: where the situation is most difficult

According to the Ministry of Energy, since the beginning of the year, the Ukrainian power system has already experienced several episodes, which the minister called "the most difficult days since the nationwide blackout of November 2022."⁴ The most difficult situation traditionally persists in Kyiv, Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions, where large industrial and residential demand is concentrated, and networks have repeatedly become targets of missile and drone strikes.^{4 9} In the capital alone, according to Shmyhal, 165 repair crews worked during one day, and in some regions additional teams from Naftogaz and private companies are joining the restoration of electricity and heat.^{4 11} .

In parallel, the government is trying to increase domestic generation where possible: in the Kyiv region, for example, in January, several cogeneration plants with a total capacity of about 4,5 MW were put into operation, and several more are preparing for launch.⁷ Although these figures do not cover the nationwide deficit, they allow stabilizing the situation in individual network nodes and reducing the duration of outages for some consumers.⁷ At the same time, Shmyhal admits: without significantly increasing support from partners with equipment and investments in network modernization, it will be difficult to completely eliminate the risks of complex schedules in the coming months.^{7 9} .

"Complex schedules" in practice: who is protected first

Announcing the complex schedules for February 10–11, the minister separately emphasized: hospitals, water utilities, and social institutions remain objects of absolute priority.^{6 8} This means that, if possible, they should receive power constantly or with minimal interruptions, and if this is not possible, they should be the first to be provided with generators, fuel and additional energy sources.^{6 8} The government plans to transfer other state and municipal institutions to autonomous generation in order to free up more electricity for household consumers who do not have their own backup sources.^{6 11} .

This is not only about the technical reconfiguration of networks, but also about a management decision: the state is actually changing priorities, obliging some institutions to adapt to life on generators and not to claim "continuous" access to grid electricity during peak hours.^{6 11} This is a complex political signal, but in a time of war and resource scarcity, it is designed to show that people and basic services are at the center of energy policy, not the comfort of bureaucracy or secondary facilities.

Fairness of schedules: how the government promises "level playing field"

One of the most sensitive aspects of winter blackouts is traditionally the question of fairness: why in some areas there is almost constant light, while in others people sit in the dark for 12-16 hours a day. Shmyhal directly acknowledged this problem in his statement and promised to strengthen control over the even distribution of electricity between regions and consumers^{6 11} According to him, the state's task is to ensure "equal conditions for all consumers" so that the deficit does not turn into a privilege for some and a punishment for others.^{6 11} .

This involves several practical steps: stricter reporting by regional energy authorities on adherence to schedules, the use of centralized load monitoring systems, and the involvement of the National Energy Regulatory Commission and other regulators in verifying how planned outages are actually carried out.¹¹ For the government, this is also a political challenge: after two winters of blackouts, public patience for the "manual mode" of disconnections has significantly decreased, and every imbalance instantly becomes a topic for public criticism.

Support for partners: why Shmyhal talks about systemic EU assistance

Speaking at international forums, Denys Shmyhal constantly links the internal schedules of outages with the external dimension — assistance from partners in restoring and modernizing the energy system. In meetings with European commissioners, he emphasizes that Russia deliberately strikes at the energy infrastructure precisely during severe frosts, while Ukraine is doing everything possible to restore electricity and heat to people's homes as quickly as possible.⁹ The EU, for its part, promises to continue systemic support for the Ukrainian energy sector — from the supply of transformers and generators to financing programs for “smart grids” and decentralized generation.⁹ .

Such steps are not only about technology, but also about the future of Ukraine's energy sector after the war. Experts emphasize that if the current crisis is used as an opportunity, Ukraine can emerge from it with a more flexible system - with a stronger role for distributed generation, modernized networks and better crisis response protocols.^{9 12} But we still have to live to see this horizon — and for millions of Ukrainians, the coming Tuesday and Wednesday mean a very specific question: how many hours of light will there be in their apartment and whether the laptop battery will last until the next outage.

Sources

1. TSN.ua (English/Ukrainian): news item "Power outage schedules may worsen, Shmyhal says" with explanations regarding the generation deficit and the risk of more severe outages.
2. UNN: report on Shmyhal's statement regarding a possible deterioration of schedules amid a deficit in the energy system.
3. UNN Slider: analytics of "Shmyhal's Energy Plan", expert assessments of the weaknesses of the energy system and the role of frost as a factor exposing problems.
4. Anadolu Agency: material about the "hardest day" for Ukraine's energy system since the 2022 blackout, the situation in Kyiv and the regions.
5. Korrespondent.net: news "Shmyhal announced complex outage schedules" with quotes about the impact of low temperatures and solar generation.
6. UP: publication "Shmyhal: Due to frost, Tuesday and Wednesday will be held in complex schedules" with a full quote from the statement in Telegram.
7. Ministry of Energy of Ukraine: release on the staff meeting chaired by Shmyhal, the launch of cogeneration plants and additional capacity in the Kyiv region.
8. RBC-Ukraine: article "There will be less light. Ukrainians warned about difficult schedules" with details about the dates of February 10–11 and energy supply priorities.
9. Ministry of Energy / European Commission: news about Shmyhal's meeting with the European Commissioner and the EU's promise to continue systemic support for Ukraine's energy sector.
10. Enovosty / other Ukrainian media: Shmyhal's explanation about the minimum 18 hours of electricity per day for houses without heat supply and work with partners on equipment.
11. UNN / NEURC comments: mentions of strengthening control over the fair distribution of electricity and compliance with outage schedules.
12. UNN Slider: Experts conclude that consumption restrictions are inevitable even without extreme frosts, due to the structural vulnerability of infrastructure.