"Putin wants to bring back the USSR": Merz warns that Russia will not stop at Ukraine

Warning from Berlin: Why Merz's words about "restoring the USSR" force Europe to look beyond the Ukrainian front

A formula has appeared in the German political lexicon, which for Ukraine sounds like a long-known truth, but for part of Europe it has still been an uncomfortable topic: "Putin wants to restore the old Soviet Union within its borders." This was directly stated by German Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz, emphasizing that the fall of Ukraine will not be the finale for the Kremlin, but only a stage on the way to changing borders across the continent.^{1 2}Against this background, Merz called on Europeans to stop entertaining the illusion that Russia will stop at the current war, and to prepare for a long defense – both political and military.^{2 3}.

What exactly did Merz say: "if Ukraine falls, he won't stop"

Speaking at the CSU congress in Munich, Friedrich Merz said: Vladimir Putin is interested in "fundamentally changing the borders in Europe and restoring the old Soviet Union within its former borders."^{1 2}According to the Chancellor, this is not emotional hyperbole, but a conclusion from official Russian doctrines, speeches and strategic documents, which directly describe the post-Soviet space as a sphere of Moscow's "legitimate interests".^{2 7}"If Ukraine falls, he will not stop. Anyone who still thinks that this will be enough for Putin should carefully reread his strategies and speeches," Merz emphasized.^{1 2}.

He separately noted that this goal comes in one package with a military threat to countries that were previously part of the Soviet empire or were in its orbit of influence.^{2 3}. In fact, we are talking about a wide arc from the Baltics and Poland to Moldova, the countries of the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Such a formulation from the mouth of the current German Chancellor not only records the assessment of the threat, but also sets the framework for the defense policy of Germany and the EU for the coming years^{3 8}.

Context of the statement: from the TF1 interview to the speech in Munich

This is not the first time Merz has displayed offensive rhetoric towards the Kremlin. Back in late August, in an interview with French TV channels LCI/TF1, he said that "when you listen to Putin, you understand: he wants to restore the former Soviet Union in a territorial dimension," and called for stronger Franco-German cooperation as the "engine of Europe" in countering these plans.⁴At the same time, Merz warned that the war in Ukraine could last “many months” and that Putin was not showing any real willingness to compromise.⁴.

Even earlier, during a visit to the Navy headquarters in Rostock and aboard the frigate Bavaria in the Baltic Sea, he called the threat from Russia "real" and stressed that the Russian army "tests NATO's defense readiness and capabilities" in the region every day.^{5 8}These fragments form a coherent picture: in Merz's rhetoric, Russia appears not as a local aggressor against Ukraine, but as a long-term revisionist player trying to regain its imperial status.

The Kremlin's reaction: demonstrative denial and familiar arguments

Dmitry Peskov quickly responded to Merz's words. The Kremlin spokesman called the German Chancellor's statements "untrue" and repeated the already well-established formula: "President Putin does not want the restoration of the USSR, because it is impossible, and he himself has said this many times."^{6 9}According to Peskov, such statements demonstrate "disrespect for Russia's partners" within the CIS and other integration associations, since, in his opinion, they reduce regional cooperation to "imperial logic."^{7 6}.

The Russian side also rejected Merz's accusations of intentions to attack NATO, calling talk of a possible strike on the Alliance "nonsense" and "an attempt at incitement."^{6 9}. However, these denials do not align well with the real behavior of the Russian Federation: from full-scale aggression against Ukraine to systematic violations of the airspace of neighboring countries, sabotage of critical infrastructure facilities, and open support for anti-European parties in a number of EU countries.^{8 10}.

Why this is a landmark statement for Germany

For Berlin, Merz's words are an important marker of a turning point in its approach to Russia. For years, Germany has adhered to the concept of "change through trade" (Wandel durch Handel), building gas pipeline projects and tying its own industry to Russian energy resources.¹⁰. After 2022, this model effectively collapsed, but the inertia of some political elites continued to push Germany towards compromises for a long time. Now the current Chancellor publicly speaks of Putin as a leader who wants to “redraw the map of Europe” and restore Soviet borders.^{2 3}.

This has practical consequences. Merz links his assessment to concrete steps: a call for "massive investment in our own defense capabilities," for preserving NATO and strengthening EU unity, and for continuing large-scale aid to Ukraine.^{2 5}In other words, Germany is increasingly moving away from the image of an “economic power with political restraint” to the role of one of the key pillars of European security – at least in the rhetoric of the current government.

Who does Merz consider the Kremlin's next targets?

Although the Chancellor did not directly name specific countries in the aforementioned speech, the spectrum of possible "next targets" of the Kremlin has long been outlined in analysts and statements by Western leaders. Among the most vulnerable are Moldova with its unrecognized Transnistria, where Russian troops are still stationed, as well as the Baltic states and Poland, which have already been hit by hybrid strikes - from cyberattacks to airspace violations and infrastructure sabotage.^{8 10}German media remind us: when Merz says that Russia is “testing the limits,” he means these very cases.⁸.

The list of potentially vulnerable countries also includes Georgia and other states in the South Caucasus, which have already felt the force of the Russian “peacekeeping” contingent, and the countries of Central Asia, where Moscow continues to try to maintain a military-political presence.^{3 10}This picture is not new for Ukraine: as has been repeatedly said in Kyiv, the idea that the war will end “on the Dnieper” contradicts the very logic of Russian revanchism.

Ukrainian dimension: Budanov and others have been talking about this for a long time

The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, Kirill Budanov, emphasized back in February: Russia sees itself as an empire, so it “will not stop” and will strive to absorb Ukraine by all available methods – military, political, and internally destabilizing.⁴These assessments of Ukrainian intelligence in the West were initially perceived as the “voice of an interested party,” but are now increasingly heard in the words of European leaders – from Merz to the presidents of Poland and the Baltic states.^{8 10}.

Advisor to the President's Office Mykhailo Podolyak said bluntly in September: Putin's goal is not only control over Ukrainian territory, but also the dismantling of Ukrainian statehood as such, which prevents the restoration of the imperial "corridor" to Europe.¹¹In this perspective, Merz's thesis about the "restoration of the USSR" actually translates Ukrainian warnings into language understandable to Western voters: either Russia is stopped at the Dnieper, or the next battles will take place closer to the Vistula and Narva.

Why does the Kremlin say that "the USSR cannot be restored"?

Peskov and other representatives of the Russian government regularly repeat that "it is impossible to restore the USSR," appealing to the obvious fact of the collapse of the empire in 1991.^{6 7}However, this is not about the literal reconstruction of the union republics under the red flag, but about the restoration of control over the same geopolitical space - through military presence, dependent regimes, economic pressure and "integration" in the format of the EAEU, the CSTO or other structures.^{3 10}Putin himself has repeatedly called the collapse of the USSR “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century” and has publicly questioned the legitimacy of the borders of post-Soviet states.

Therefore, the discussion between Berlin and the Kremlin is more about terms than reality. For Merz, “restoring the USSR” means returning Russia to the role of the center of gravity for the former republics by force; for Peskov, it is a convenient image that can be dismissed as “impossible” so as not to directly acknowledge imperial ambitions.^{6 7}But against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, the occupation of parts of Georgia and Moldova, and hybrid pressure on the Baltics, the Kremlin's arguments look less and less convincing.

European defense response: what Merz proposes

In his speeches, Merz combines warnings about the Russian threat with a concrete agenda. Key elements he lists include: unwavering support for Ukraine, preserving EU unity, close ties with the UK, preserving NATO "as long as possible" and large-scale investment in Germany's own defense capabilities.^{2 5}This means both an increase in the defense budget and the deployment of new air defense systems, the development of the fleet, and a strengthening of the Bundeswehr's presence on the eastern flank of the Alliance.

Separately, Merz emphasizes the need to restore or partially return compulsory military service for certain categories of the population - a discussion that seemed unthinkable for German society a few years ago.^{5 8}. All this confirms: Berlin no longer sees war as a “distant” problem. Words about defense, deterrence, and alliance commitments are reappearing in the German political lexicon – and this is a direct consequence of the feeling that Putin really will not stop at Ukraine.

What Merz's statement means for Ukraine

For Kyiv, the German Chancellor's words have several levels of significance. First, it is confirmation that one of the key EU countries officially recognizes that Russia's war is not a local conflict, but an attempt to change the entire security system in Europe, returning it to the status of "spheres of influence."^{2 3}This perspective simplifies the argument of Ukrainian diplomats in Berlin and Brussels: aid to Ukraine is provided not as a gesture of solidarity, but as an investment in the security of the EU itself.

Second, Merz’s statement strengthens Kyiv’s position in discussions about long-term security guarantees – from NATO integration to bilateral defense agreements. If the German Chancellor publicly says that Russia will not stop, then it is logical that Ukraine should not be a “buffer”, but part of Europe’s defense belt.^{5 8}Third, it is a signal to the Kremlin: attempts to split the West by playing on German fears and economic interests are not yet working as planned.

Will this change the skeptics in the EU?

Even against the backdrop of Merz's tough statements, there are still politicians in the European Union who believe in the possibility of "agreement" with the Kremlin by limiting support for Ukraine and making concessions on sanctions or security issues. However, the more clearly the big players - Germany, France, Poland - speak about the imperial nature of Russia's plans, the more difficult it becomes to argue for "neutrality" or a return to business with Moscow.^{3 10}The discussion about frozen Russian assets, about joint defense projects, and about NATO expansion is already taking place in the shadow of these warnings.

It is important for Ukraine that Merz's rhetoric and similar statements do not remain just words. Their logical continuation should be the acceleration of arms deliveries, clear long-term financial support plans, decisions on the use of Russian assets for the benefit of Ukraine's reconstruction, and institutional steps on the path to the EU and NATO. If Europe truly believes that "Putin will not stop at Ukraine," then the only response to this should be the readiness not to stop ourselves - in supporting, defending, and rethinking our own security.

Sources

1. Anadolu / AA: German chancellor accuses Russian president of wanting 'to restore old Soviet Union' – Friedrich Merz's speech on restoring the borders of the USSR.
2. Yeni Şafak: German chancellor Merz: Putin aims to restore Soviet Union borders – analysis of Merz's speech at the CSU congress in Munich.
3. AA / AAWSAT: Merz's comments on changing borders in Europe and the need to defend against Russian doctrines regarding NATO.
4. UNN: Putin wants to restore the Soviet Union – Merz – Merz's interview with the French media TF1/LCI, mention of the territorial ambitions of the Russian Federation and the words of Kirill Budanov.
5. AA: German chancellor warns of Russian threat during Baltic Sea visit – Merz's statement about the "real threat" from Russia in the Baltic region.
6. Reuters / Anadolu / Arab News: Kremlin denies Putin wants to restore USSR, cites "impossibility" of restoring the Union, Dmitry Peskov's reaction.
7. Caliber.Az: Kremlin spokesperson: Putin not seeking to revive Soviet Union – Peskov's extended comments on the "falsehood" of Merz's statements.
8. DW / iamexpat: Merz warns Putin is 'testing the limits' – assessment of Russian provocations against NATO countries and strengthening of Germany's defense plans.
9. Investing.com and other international media: analysis of the Kremlin's objections to the "restoration of the USSR" and the reaction to accusations of a threat to NATO.
10. European and Ukrainian analytical resources: an overview of Russia's long-term goals in the post-Soviet space and the risks for Moldova, the Baltics, Poland, and other states.
11. Official resources of Ukraine (OP, GUR MO): statements by Mykhailo Podoliak and Kyrylo Budanov about the imperial goals of the Russian Federation and Russia's unwillingness to stop at Ukraine.