Last 39 seconds. How Poland and NATO will overcome reputational losses

It was reported in Warsaw: NATO is discussing the shooting down of Russian missiles, пишет Vladyslav Girman, an observer of the international policy department of "DS".

Illustrative photo

Russia is demonstratively trying to humiliate Poland in the political and media plane, using its own missile to violate our neighbor's airspace in the Oserduwa region of the Lublin Voivodeship for 24 seconds on March 39.

In connection with this, on the same day, the ambassador of the Russian Federation Sergey Andreev was summoned to the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, but he ignored the call "on the carpet" because, they say, official Warsaw did not provide sufficient evidence regarding the missile. Therefore, Andreev decided that he could "not visit the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland", which violated the Vienna Convention, which clearly regulates the duties and norms of behavior of foreign diplomatic missions.

And this was done absolutely in the spirit of the so-called Russian diplomacy, the personification of which for more than two decades has been the head of the Foreign Ministry, Sergey Lavrov, and together with him various nebenzas who, like their president, use more street "bydlomacy" than diplomacy. Such as it should be and is in civilized countries.

In this particular case, another demonstration by the Russians of their own "cattle" was aimed exclusively at the media humiliation of Poland. And it should be recognized that they managed to damage the reputation of Poland. Even against the backdrop of farmers blocking the Ukrainian border (at the same time, in honor of Easter, they unblocked the checkpoint on the border with the Russian Federation in Grzehotki).

How did they react in Warsaw?

Due to the approach of Russian missiles to the Ukrainian-Polish border on March 24, as during the preliminary strikes, Polish F-16s took to the air. However, they did not intercept the Russian X-101/555.

Later, the representative of the operational command of the Polish Armed Forces, Lieutenant Colonel Jacek Horyszewski, explained this by the certainty that the Russian missile would leave the country's airspace (which happened).

Defense Minister Vladyslav Kosyniak-Kamysh assured that the missile would have been shot down if there were signs that its target was on the territory of Poland.

Later, the chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces, Weslaw Kukula, put forward several versions of the violation of the country's airspace - the deliberate programming of such a route (that is, a provocation) or as a result of the deviation of a Russian missile, known for its inaccuracy, from the course due to an error.

As for why the aircraft did not shoot it down, Kukula gave another reason: "Such targets on the border of two countries are difficult in terms of the dilemma - to shoot down or not. Because the consequences of destruction on our side may lead to unintended effects on the other side. And it can be the same when Ukraine shoots such a missile. Such a missile can fall on the territory of Poland and cause certain consequences."

In an interview with RMF FM, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Andrzej Schein noted that Russia knew that "if the missile flew further into the depths of Poland, it would be shot down."

At the same time, it should be noted that Krzysztof Bosak, the vice-speaker of the Sejm and the leader of the pro-Russian "Confederation", declared that the Polish air defense/anti-missile defense system was not ready to repel such attacks.

And this is at a time when Poland, where Patriot is based, is indeed increasing defense spending at a record pace, preparing for possible aggression from Russia. In 2024, in particular, Poland will spend 4,2% of GDP on defense, or 159 billion zlotys (almost $40 billion) and sign more than 150 contracts for the purchase of weapons, equipment and shells, with an emphasis on air defense/anti-missile systems, armored forces, missile forces and artillery, as well as the Air Force and the Navy

The third rocket

Despite this, Poland is not yet ready to eliminate targets violating its airspace. Including because of the desire not to provoke an escalation in relations with Russia, whose troops are trying to seize Ukraine for the third time.

In this context, by the way, the example of Turkish-Russian relations was given. In an interview with TOK FM, ex-deputy commander of the NATO Strategic Forces, retired general Mechyslav Benek recalled the incident with the destruction of the Russian Su-24 by Turkey in 2015, which violated its airspace. According to Benek, this event led to a "very deep crisis" in relations between Turkey and Russia. But it is worth noting: yes, there was a crisis and tension, but the Russian Federation did not go to war with a NATO member country. Putin then imposed sanctions, but very quickly came to an agreement with his Turkish colleague Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Of course, the current situation has significant differences, namely, it contains numerous fears and forecasts of Russia's readiness to fight with NATO in addition to Ukraine. Even if it is assumed that the Kremlin is really ready for another suicidal "mission", is it rational to allow him to test NATO's strength in the manner inherent in the Russian Federation and check its readiness for retaliatory actions?

Moreover, the flight of a Russian missile over Oserdów is already the third incident of a foreign missile appearing in Polish airspace since the Russian Federation's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

As a reminder, on November 15, 2022, a tragedy occurred in the village of Pshevudov — two people died due to a falling rocket. There were long disputes about it: whether it is a Russian or a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile launched to shoot down a Russian one. But Warsaw identified it as Ukrainian on the basis of an examination of the wreckage, the results of which were not published, and in January 2024 it suspended the investigation "due to the lack of any cooperation from Ukraine to explain this tragedy."

The incident occurred near the border with Ukraine. Just like March 24 of this year.

However, there is another case with a Russian X-55 with a concrete warhead, which fell near Bygdosh on December 16, 2022 (it was found only in April 2023) — approximately 400 km from the nearest point on the Ukrainian border. And, as Rzeczpospolita wrote, the mark on the monitors was analyzed for about 8-10 minutes by the Polish radars, which sometimes disappeared and then appeared again. In other words, the Polish military had been watching for up to 10 minutes some suspicious object flying to the north of the country during Russia's next massive missile attack on Ukraine. By the way, the standard equipment of the Kh-55 is a nuclear warhead.

However, they do not yet remember the X-55 in the forest near the village of Zamosc, because these 39 seconds and the antics of the Russian ambassador Andreev are enough to harm the image of Poland and force the authorities to correct the media picture.

Therefore, in the above-mentioned interview, Mr. Sheina also reported that NATO, with which Warsaw has already discussed the incident over Oserduvy, is now still considering the option of shooting down Russian missiles if they are headed towards the territory of the Alliance countries. Although, at the same time, he again noted that first it is necessary to obtain the consent of Ukraine to shoot down missiles outside the territory of the North Atlantic Treaty. In short, Ukraine is extreme again, because it still has not given permission to shoot down Russian missiles in the Polish sky.

Read also on Newsky "Don't drown your voice in oil. Why does the USA ask Ukraine not to destroy Russian refineries?" and look at Boring Pence YouTube channel.

To always be up to date, subscribe to TG channel Newsky. We also recommend the current discussion of friends of Ukraine in North America on Rashkin Report YouTube channel.