Beauty and emptiness. What will China and the USA reconcile on, and why will Taiwan wait

The background of the upcoming visit of Xi Jinping to Moscow allows us to think about the contours of a possible compromise between China and the West, пишет journalist-observer of "DS" Sergey Ilchenko.

Yevgeny Prigogine

In China, the transfer of Xi Jinping's power has ended, so the second term has ended: on March 10, Xi was elected President of the People's Republic of China for the third time. This is a completely different position, not duplicating the post of General Secretary of the Communist Party. Yes, both positions can be combined by one person, and You have already combined them for two terms in a row. But they can be combined in different ways.

Transfer of Xi Jinping

In other words, Xi's transfer of power was predetermined in fact, but not in form, and was not a pure formality, since the second and third terms of the Chinese leader are different eras. With different goals, instruments and personnel policy. With different Xi Jinpings, if we talk about him as a functionary within the framework of the system, and not as a private person who nobody cares about. The difference is easy to spot: if in the joint statement of Xi Jinping-2 and Putin before the start of the invasion of Ukraine, following the results of the meeting in Beijing before the opening of the Olympics on February 04.02.22, 2022, the parties declared support for multipolarity, then at the 3th Congress of the Communist Party of China in October 24.02, Xi Jinping, entering the process of transition to the era of Xi-XNUMX, said that he sees the future as bipolar. Russia was no longer included in the number of Poles, and Putin's opinion was no longer of interest to Sy after February XNUMX.

However, the transformation of Xi Jinping from Sy-2 to Sy-3, from October to March, was not at all an intra-Chinese process under the hardware carpet. On the contrary, it was held very openly, for those to whom it is in rank. It was clarified during Xi's international contacts, including contacts with US President Biden and EU leaders. And he stopped meeting with Putin. After 24.02.22, the rank and level of competence of the Kremlin dictator in the eyes of Xi Jinping dropped sharply.

Transfer Prigozhin

Meanwhile, in Russia, the head of PMC "Wagner" Evgeny Prigozhin announced his intention to run for president of Ukraine in 2024. Of course, the figures of Si and Prigozhin are incomparable in scale, but both are parts of the puzzle that we are now trying to put together.

So, Prigozhin announced his claims to the Ukrainian presidency and his intention to compete in the elections with Zelensky and Poroshenko. With this statement, he, in his usual foolish manner, when everything can be reduced to an unsuccessful joke of a stupid mercenary, trolled the Kremlin, reminded him of the inability to change anything in Ukraine with the help of brute force. Prigozhin himself, if you recall his early statements, "has his own plan," but "the time to speak about it has not yet come."

Developing the topic of participation in the Ukrainian elections, Prigozhin promised that, if he won them, "everything will be fine, shells will not be needed." "We won't need projectiles" is an obvious remake of Zelensky's slogan in the 2019 elections: they say, "we just need to stop shooting," and it's just as obvious trolling by the Ukrainian leadership.

Of course, PMC "Wagner" is a terrorist organization, and Prigozhin himself is a war criminal and one of the future defendants at the International Tribunal for Russia. But only if he survives, he won't hide somewhere in the African hinterland or become an extremely useful son of a bitch. The latter option is more interesting than lying in a black bag or feeding malaria mosquitoes, and Prigozhin, as a practical man, should aspire to it.

Why does Prigozhin promote himself in Russia, and, in part, outside of Russia, at the level of the ordinary citizen, that "stupid people" who will not go anywhere and will not change at all under any power? Obviously, in connection with his plans, he needs support and sympathy, first of all, in the grassroots, and not at the hardware level. At the Russian apparatus level, such an outrage can only earn Prigozhin new enemies, of which there are already plenty. But why is Prigozhin so popular?

Some commentators say that Prigozhin wants to lose handsomely to Putin in the presidential elections of 2024, at the level of 17% to 27%, and thus increase his political weight. Let's assume that this is so, but then where will he go with such a weight? Others assume that Prigozhin began preparing for the Duma elections in 2026. One does not exclude the other, but why should he?

A three-year long run for a chair in the General Assembly? Too complicated, and again, why? Prigozhin's ambitions are so serious that he did not want to realize them as part of the LDPR. Although he could have made his way to the No. 1 position in the party, he pushed boring Leonid Slutsky, or shared power with him. Slutsky was uncomfortable on the first line, had he received the necessary guarantees, he would easily have gone to the second ranks, engaged in internal party affairs, and allowed Prigozhin to shine in the rays of public glory. Such a tandem would be beneficial to both of them, and Prigozhin, playing in pairs, would gradually overshadow Zhirynovsky. After all, the late son of a lawyer had neither PMC nor African gold, uranium and diamonds — but Prigozhin has them. And Prigozhin was called to the LDPR. It is possible that it is also due to financial considerations, because the coffers of the LDPR were eviscerated by the eldest son of Vladimir Zhirynovsky, Igor Lebedev, who took it with him to Miami - but financial issues, in the end, could be discussed. Prigozhin not only did not want to discuss anything, but he was also arrogant, refused in the most rude manner and blew up all possible bridges to the future. Why? Maybe because there is no LDPR in Prigozhyn's future at all?

Prigozhin, as an independent deputy, can get a seat in the State House of Representatives even in the fall, having put himself up for by-elections in the vacant Simferopol District No. 19. It will be surprising if he loses them. It is possible that he will present and put in his pocket a deputy's mandate, just to have it, along with the opportunity to speak from the Duma tribune, but on the scale of the game that he is playing, this will be a passing step. There is no sense in starting a large-scale PR for him. Then why?

Will he prepare his party project from scratch by 2026? Perhaps, but, again, why, if Prigozhin could sit on a ready and strong project of the LDPR, in the same three years, rebuild it for himself, and the niche in Russian politics left by Zhirynovsky is not occupied by anyone yet. Moreover, there are no other applicants for this niche. By the way, why does Prigozhin need this niche? What would he do in it?

In the Russian political field, Prigozhin, in fact, is present only as a very specific figure, in a specific position. In wartime, leaving her, even as the leader of Duma faction No. 2, would be a clear downshift for him, and he would not be appointed head of faction No. 1, ER, for many reasons, and, besides, it is definitely "not ego." Prigozhin will not be Putin's successor either, not on the same scale.

And if we are talking about the post-war world? Here, everything depends on what kind of peace this will be, and whether it will include the State Department of the Russian Federation, and faction No. 2 in it.

Be that as it may, today the figure of Prigozhin falls out of the existing system, and he does not want to bend to this system, demonstrating his ambition and audacity. That is, he calculates to bend the system under himself.

China transfer

Let's take a short break from Russian intrigues and return to Beijing, where the formation of the new power of the Sy-3 era was completed. Key positions in the government were given to officials whose activities were previously associated with the growth of China's military power, and with experience working with Russia and in the regions adjacent to it. In the army, representatives of the ground forces came to the fore, followed by aviation and paratroopers. The new Prime Minister Li Qiang, who replaced Li Keqiang on March 11, at a press conference on the occasion of taking office, stated that the PRC will promote cooperation across the Taiwan Strait based on the principle of one China and the 1992 Consensus, emphasized the need for strong trade ties with the United States. questioned the idea of ​​an economic and, by default, technological barrier between the two countries, and noted that the economies of the United States and China are closely intertwined.

Li's statements contrast somewhat in tone with Xi Jinping's criticism of the United States and other countries that are "trying to contain China" during Xi's second term, although they do not contradict them in meaning.

As for Xi Jinping, we haven't really heard from him yet, within the framework of the finally formed concept of the third term. But soon we will hear from Moscow: he plans to visit Russia to meet with Putin as early as next week. According to unofficial but reliable data, Xi will bring a package of joint projects and investments worth up to a trillion yuan (about $150 billion, but in yuan) for a period of up to 10 years. This means a qualitative review of relations with the Russian Federation, since now the amount of investment from the People's Republic of China to Russia is very small.

Is this much or little — a term of 10 years? For comparison: the Iranian-Chinese cooperation program, signed in March 2021 and updated in February of this year, is designed for 25 years. But Russia after the beginning of the "SVO" acquired an unhealthy appearance, and Beijing considered it inexpedient to plan cooperation with it for more than 10 years. And what will happen afterwards?

Transfer Russia

The future of Russia is not seen in the long term not only in Beijing. Little by little, people in the West are also coming to the idea of ​​the inevitability and beneficence of its disintegration, even if it is associated with risks. This idea has not yet become a strategy, but it has come close to this point. Among the most recent opinions of this kind, we can recall the statement of French General Michel Yakovleff, ex-deputy commander of NATO forces in Europe, that NATO now needs to prepare for the collapse of the Russian Federation.

According to Yakovleff, the disintegration/partition of the Russian Federation is inevitable and will be bloodier than the disintegration of the USSR, since in fact three armies will intervene in the division of territories and assets: the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the FSB, as well as small players, in the form of the Kadyrovs and Wagners , other PMCs and private armies of oligarchs. Yakovleff compared the situation with Lebanon in 1973, adjusted for the scale and presence of nuclear weapons.

Apparently, from Beijing, Washington and Brussels (as well as from Ankara, but Turkey is smaller in scale, although it is a very dynamic player), the prospects of the Russian Federation are seen in roughly the same way. Such a common vision can become a starting point for reaching agreements on long-term cooperation built around Russia. Moreover, it seems that in general the parties have already agreed. Naturally, without the participation of Moscow, to which the decisions will be brought as necessary. However, it is not necessarily the case with Moscow, since other decision-making centers (but not development!) may appear on the territory of the Russian Federation very soon.

The contours of the compromise are visible as follows:

• The topic of Taiwan is frozen;
• China invests widely in Russia, without violating sanctions and stipulating security guarantees for investments. After the collapse of Russia, he takes control of the zone of his investment interests, with the full understanding of the West. Here it is appropriate to recall the map in Budanov's office and orient yourself on it.

Here, by the way, about cartography: the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China proposed to indicate the historical borders of China on geographical maps, and in brackets - authentic Chinese names. In particular, Vladivostok-Khaishenvai; Ussuriysk-Shuangchenzi; Khabarovsk-Boli; Blagoveshchensk - Khaylanpao; Sakhalin — Quedao; Nerchinsk — Nybuchu; Nikolaevsk-on-Amur — Miaotze, etc.

• The West of the Russian Federation falls under the external control of the West with the participation of Ukraine (we look at the map again). In the central part of the former Russian Federation, state construction begins on the basis of the national revival of small nations, under the roof of a flexible Western-Chinese compromise. It is here, with some dexterity, that Yevgeny Prigozhin will be able to realize his ambitions.

Putin's cook and Siberian dumplings

Let's return to the discussion of the "Wagner" chapter. We have already found out that:

• His political maneuvers are probably aimed at a place in the post-war world. Now Prigozhin has taken a medium-strong position, and he does not intend to strengthen it, giving up the freedom of maneuver between groups of big players within the framework of the existing system in Russia. It follows that Prigozhin predicts its disintegration and minimizes ties with it, so as not to drag with it the tail from the past era, which in new times will only become a hindrance to him. Hence the emphatically anti-systemic position;
• In general, Prigozhin does not care about his current status as a terrorist.

Now we estimate the options and limits of changes to the political system in Russia that preserves integrity... and we don't find a place for Prigozhin there, regardless of the course of events. And, then, the puzzle finally comes together: Prigozhin bets on the disintegration of Russia and long-term chaos, which will open the possibility of atonement of past sins for those who can create some semblance of order out of this chaos. At least on parts of the former Russian territory.

In other words, Prigozhin really wants to be president, and no less. But, of course, not Ukraine and not Russia, but a country that does not yet exist, but which, in his opinion, may appear tomorrow. The problem is that its existence will eventually be recognized as an acceptable compromise by the West, China, Turkey, and other fragments of Russia. This should guarantee the transfer of Prigozhin from a terrorist to a son of a bitch, useful for big players.

We look at the geography of mercenary recruitment centers and clubs of young "Wagnerites" that PMC "Wagner" opens "all over Russia" - and we see, mainly, Siberia. We compare it with Budanov's map — and we find only one discrepancy: Prigozhin's big interest in St. Petersburg. But very local, without pretensions to the Leningrad region — yes, it is still Leningrad. Most likely, Prigozhin plans to play in St. Petersburg in the near-medium term, precisely until 2026, and Siberia is his medium-long-term project. Have you read Zhuravlev? No? In vain Ah, Prigozhin seems to have read it.

Is Prigozhin alone in his plans? No, the prospect of the disintegration of Russia is too obvious, and the preparation of private armies, which will then, according to the plan of their owners, conquer new states for them, is in full swing. And Ramzan Kadyrov announced in his Telegram channel about his intention to create a private military company after completing his work in the civil service. Everyone thinks that Ramzan is about to die, and he is making plans for a new life. However, the list of private armies that are being formed now to start dividing Russia tomorrow is a separate story. But Prigozhin leads this list. For now, anyway.

Of course, the majority of such armies/gangs will eventually be recognized as redundant and will be wiped out by the joint efforts of the troops of the People's Republic of China and the Western coalition. The backbone of the latter on earth will be the combined Polish-Ukrainian forces. It is understandable with Ukraine, and Poland is now building the largest land army in Europe, with 300 thousand people, developing the production of the latest tanks under a South Korean license and doing a lot of interesting things in this direction. Well, the USA traditionally provides its Air Force.

There will be no question of any kind of war with Russia. Russia, once again rotten, will collapse by itself, under its own weight. It will only be about the dismantling of dangerous ruins and their new construction. And about the compromise between the developers, because with such a size of the site, it is easier and more profitable to agree than to fight.

By the way, after his visit to the Russian Federation, Xi Jinping plans to hold an online meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky, The Wall Street Journal reported. This will be their first conversation after the beginning of the SVO.

This, as far as can be judged, is the current agenda for the coming years. Against the background of its urgency, Taiwan and its problems will not go anywhere and will be able to wait several years or even ten years. It is possible that within the framework of the new political geography they will be resolved by themselves, generally without conflicts, and to the general satisfaction of the new players.

Read also on Newsky "Oligarchs and top managers are fleeing the RSPP on the eve of the meeting with Putin" and look at Boring Pence YouTube channel.

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