Prague unlikely to join Budapest and Bratislava

Exclusive. On October 3–4, 2025, the Czech Republic experienced a political earthquake. The opposition ANO movement of former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš won a landslide victory, gaining about 35% of the vote and approximately 80 seats in the 200-seat Chamber of Deputies.

It was a dramatic comeback for the populist billionaire, who was ousted from power four years ago by a coalition of centrists and liberals led by Petr Fiala. The high turnout of 69% suggests that Czechs are not indifferent – ​​they were disappointed with Fiala personally.

The previous five-party coalition (SPOLU, STAN and Pirates) was defeated, although it performed much better than the latest polls predicted. SPOLU received about 50 seats, STAN – 22, Pirates – 18. Instead, two new protest forces stormed into parliament: the anti-system Motorists for Their Own (14 seats) and Tomio Okamura's far-right SPD (16 seats).

The Communists and their alliance Stačilo! were left behind. On November 3, the Czech Republic received not only a new composition of the chamber, but also a new (possibly) face of government. SPD leader Tomio Okamura was elected speaker of the lower house – a symbolic gesture that emphasizes the shift of the political center to the right.

On the same day, Andrej Babis signed a coalition agreement with the SPD and the Motorists. Less than a month after the election, a majority was formed that promises to be the most Eurosceptic in the entire history of the Czech Republic's membership in the EU.

This coalition is not just the arithmetic of 80 + 16 + 14. It is an ideological alliance of three forces united by criticism of the "Brussels bureaucracy", the Green Deal, migration policy and, most worryingly, support for Ukraine. Babis has already announced his intention to stop budget aid to Kyiv and cancel the Czech initiative to supply artillery shells.

The SPD openly criticizes NATO, while the Motorists demand a return to "normal life" without climate restrictions and bans on internal combustion engines.

For the Czech Republic, which has been one of the most active donors and advocates for Ukraine in Europe since 2022, this is a sharp reversal. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban did not hide his joy, calling Babis's victory "good news for Europe."

But does Prague risk joining the Budapest-Bratislava axis, where support for Ukraine has long become a bargaining chip in domestic politics?

Domestically, Babis is promising what Czechs want to hear after years of inflation and austerity: higher pensions and salaries, lower taxes, and a fight against high prices. He accuses Fiala's government of a "lying" budget for 2026 and promises "a normal life without Brussels orders."

The opposition – SPOLU, STAN, and Pirates – are ready for a tough fight from the ranks of the parliamentary minority.

But maybe that won't be necessary.

Not everyone sees ANO's victory as a disaster. Some analysts, such as those from the Carnegie Endowment, emphasize that Babis is not an ideological Eurosceptic, but a transactional politician like Trump: he criticizes the EU but does not seek to leave it or NATO.

Babis has repeatedly stated that membership in these organizations is “unwavering,” and his previous government even expelled Russian diplomats after the 2014 incidents.

Critics, such as those from Euronews, point out that Babis does not have "far-right thinking" and may be more pragmatic than Orbán or Fico.

When it became known that the winner of the elections would form a new coalition with the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy Party (SPD) of Tomio Okamura, as well as with the Motorists for Their Own Party, which entered parliament for the first time, the most problematic issue seemed to be coordinating portfolios with the far-right.

However, as predicted before, it turned out quite the opposite.

The "Automobilists" demand the appointment of their two leaders to ministerial positions: party chairman Petro Machinka and the already mentioned honorary chairman Filip Turek.

Philip Turek

But these plans have provoked both criticism of the president and strong public resistance.

The initial coalition arrangements provided that Petr Macinka would receive the Ministry of Ecology and Filip Turek the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Such plans immediately sparked protests. So, on November 26, Babis went to the meeting with the president with a compromise proposal: Machinka would be given the position of Foreign Minister, and Turek would head the Ministry of Ecology.

“We wanted to make a friendly gesture so as not to block the formation of the government,” Piotr Macinka commented on this castling. However, he made it clear that further concessions were unacceptable for his party.

However, this concession clearly did not solve all the problems, which strengthens the president's determination to block his appointment to any ministerial position.

At the same time, focusing attention specifically on Turkey increases the likelihood of appointing the less scandalous Petro Macinka to the government, and specifically to the position of Foreign Minister.

Before starting his party career, the leader of the Automobilists, Petr Machinka, worked as the deputy head of the press service in the office of President Vaclav Klaus. After the end of his term, he headed the press service of the Klaus Foundation.

Piotr Macinka

The latter is of fundamental importance, since during his presidency, Vaclav Klaus was remembered more as a Eurosceptic, but after his resignation, he began to broadcast openly pro-Russian theses.

However, Machinka himself insists that the new government's position on Ukraine will not differ much from the current government's course. "I would rather use the word 'continuity' for this (describing the new government's foreign policy), he claims.

At the same time, he claims to be a supporter of any diplomatic end to the war, in particular, he highly appreciates the efforts of Donald Trump.

Accordingly - and especially due to the continuation of Peter Pavel's term - Prague will not join the "pro-Russian" camp in Europe in the near future.

Mykhailo KovalFor Newsky