Beijing and Delhi will soon clash in Myanmar

ExclusiveIndia and China's interests in Myanmar are driven by geopolitical, economic, and security factors, as Myanmar is a strategically important country due to its location at the crossroads of trade routes, access to the Indian Ocean, and the availability of natural resources.

China's interests in Myanmar

Economic expansion and infrastructure:

China is investing heavily in Myanmar as part of its Belt and Road Initiative. In particular, the Kyaukpyu deep-sea port project is important, providing China with access to the Indian Ocean, reducing its dependence on the Strait of Malacca.

Construction of railways, highways, and gas-fired power plants (e.g., a $2,5 billion investment in a gas-fired power plant).

Myanmar is an important market for Chinese goods and investments in natural resource extraction such as gas, oil and gemstones.

Military cooperation:

China is a major arms supplier to Myanmar, and recently handed over six FTC-2000G fighter jets to the junta.

Myanmar is using Chinese arms purchases to reduce its dependence on other suppliers, such as Russia.

Geopolitical influence:

China views Myanmar as part of its "string of pearls" strategy to increase influence in the Indian Ocean. Beijing seeks to use Myanmar to contain India and strengthen its presence in Southeast Asia.

Support for the military junta after the 2021 coup allows China to maintain influence over the Myanmar government, despite the country's international isolation.

India's interests in Myanmar

Economic cooperation and infrastructure:

India is investing in Myanmar, including through loans (such as $500 million for the construction of Sittwe port), to strengthen economic ties and provide logistics for its northeastern states.

India seeks to compete with China by offering alternative investments and projects to reduce Myanmar's dependence on Beijing.

Security interests:

Myanmar shares a border with India, and stability in the border regions, especially in Rakhine State, is important for the security of India's northeastern states. Conflicts such as the Rohingya crisis have led to an influx of refugees into India, creating additional challenges.

India is concerned about growing Chinese influence in Myanmar, which could threaten its regional ambitions. Participation in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) allows India to counter China economically.

Geopolitical competition:

Myanmar is an arena of rivalry between India and China. India seeks to strengthen its position in Southeast Asia to counter China and maintain the balance of power in the region.

India cooperates with Myanmar within the framework of the Quad alliance (along with the US, Japan and Australia), which has an anti-China orientation.

India-China rivalry

Myanmar is a key geopolitical flashpoint between India and China, with both countries competing for influence over the Myanmar government, access to its resources, and strategic infrastructure projects.

China has the advantage due to greater economic resources and historically closer ties with Myanmar, while India is trying to compensate for this through diplomacy, economic aid, and cooperation with other states (e.g., through the Quad).

The conflict between India and China in the region is escalating due to border disputes (e.g. in Ladakh) and different approaches to regional security.

China and India view Myanmar as a strategically important country for their economic, security, and geopolitical goals. China focuses on economic expansion and control over infrastructure, while India seeks to contain Chinese influence by strengthening its own presence through investment and diplomacy. Myanmar, in turn, uses this rivalry to reduce its dependence on one partner, including through cooperation with other countries such as Russia.

Russia's interests in Myanmar are focused primarily on military-technical cooperation, geopolitical influence, and economic benefits aimed at strengthening Russia's position in Southeast Asia. Here are the main aspects:

Military-technical cooperation: Russia is a key arms supplier to Myanmar, seeking to reduce the country's dependence on China, which dominates the economy and arms supply. After the 2021 military coup that brought the junta to power, Russia has stepped up its support for the military regime, supplying weapons and legitimizing the junta internationally. For example, in 2021, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin attended a military parade in Myanmar, underscoring Moscow's support. Analysts say Russia is using arms sales to build influence in the ASEAN region.

Geopolitical influence: Russia sees Myanmar as a springboard for advancing its interests in Southeast Asia. Supporting the junta allows the Kremlin to counter Western sanctions and Myanmar's international isolation, as well as to counterbalance the influence of China and the West. Myanmar, for its part, uses Russia to diversify its external ties to avoid total dependence on China.

Economic and energy interests: Russia is interested in accessing Myanmar's resources, particularly in the energy sector. In 2025, there were reports of Russian plans to transfer nuclear technology to Myanmar, which could indicate ambitions in the energy sector. In addition, Russian businessmen are seen by the junta as a source of financial support.

Diplomatic support: Russia has been actively supporting Myanmar's military regime internationally, joining China in blocking UN Security Council attempts to impose sanctions on the junta for mass human rights abuses. In 2025, Myanmar and Russia signed an agreement on "mutual protection" from international legal processes, indicating a deepening of cooperation.

Migration policy: Russia plans to introduce a visa-free regime with Myanmar, which may be an attempt to attract cheap labor from that country, although this has drawn criticism due to Myanmar's low level of development.

Russia sees Myanmar as a strategic partner to expand its influence in Asia, counter Western sanctions and reduce China's influence. The main tools are arms supplies, diplomatic support and economic cooperation, although this has drawn condemnation from human rights activists who accuse Russia of legitimizing a repressive regime.

Mykhailo Koval, observer