Paper space instead of real exploration
06.12.2025Exclusive. The date is circled in red on government calendars: December 31 2025 yearBy this date, according to the Cabinet of Ministers’ program of activities, Ukraine must complete the formation of the Space Forces and bring the integrated air defense, missile defense, cyber and space components to at least 60% operational readiness. This is a political promise recorded in black and white in government documents [1][2].
On the calendar — December, until deadline less than a month. Officials write reports, draw arrows in presentations, while the army continues to buy access to satellite data from the private ICEYE - through funds, contracts and memoranda - instead of having its own military eye over the front. [2][3] The paper Space Forces against the backdrop of a leased orbit are an epitaph not to one government, but to two decades of scattered space potential.
Soviet suitcase without a handle
When people talk about space in high-ranking offices, they traditionally take out dusty albums with photos of the Zenit rocket and start a lecture on the greatness of the Yuzhnoye Design Bureau. It's nice for excursions, but useless for war. Formally, Ukraine was once a member of the "space club," but the legacy turned out to be more of a toxic asset than an advantage. We got giant workshops with outdated machines, the heating of which eats up the budget of a small city, and a management machine that lives in the logic of the 1980s.
The State Space Agency was created as a peacetime agency, not a space war headquarters. It never became the Ukrainian NASA. Instead of an aggressive technological startup, we got a ministry of sadness. Meanwhile, the world moved on to microsatellites, commercial constellations, and drone swarms, and we continued to pride ourselves on being able to make bolts for other people's missiles.
As a result, in 2022, the Ukrainian army entered a major war without its own orbital infrastructure that actually works for reconnaissance and guidance. Some university and commercial projects — from the PolyITAN series to agreements with ESA [NS] — were unable to break through the concrete of the old system. We are not so much developing the industry as slowly cutting off dead Soviet limbs.
Lesson from neighbors: $11 million for "eyes"
While Kyiv has been "integrating" into memorandums for years, Warsaw has acted more simply and tougher. Poland, through the state venture fund Vinci of the BGK group, in August 2025 simply entered the capital of the Finnish-Polish ICEYE, which is building a constellation of SAR Earth observation satellites [3].
The investment amount is over PLN 40 million, i.e. about $11 million. For scale: one Patriot PAC-3 MSE interceptor costs about $4–5 million. For the price of two or three missiles that will burn up in a few seconds of air defense operation, Poland bought a stake in a company that produces “eyes” for modern armies. Official releases directly state: this money should strengthen the Polish office, R&D and operations of ICEYE, and at the same time give the country a seat at the table where it is decided who and what sees from orbit [3].
Ukraine has remained a client over the years. We purchase access to ICEYE data through volunteer funds, direct contracts from the Ministry of Defense, and partnership programs [2][3]. Not a partner, not a co-owner, not a landlord in orbit, but a tenant with the right to ask for “one more scene, please.”
The problem is not the amount — $11 million for a country that spends billions on war is a trifle. The problem is the mentality. A simple deal with a transparent ownership structure and European regulation is bad ground for good old “schemes.” It’s hard to hide a kickback there in the line “consulting” or “related services.” There is no margin for corruption - there is no interest. In short: Poles have a stake in a company that is changing the military satellite market, and we have retail bills and another "concept for the development of the space industry."
Drama with European integration
For many years, Europe treated Ukrainian space as a talented but unreliable mechanic: golden hands, but trouble with deadlines. The situation began to change only when the issue went beyond grants and moved into the plane of survival.
In April 2025, the EU and Ukraine signed an agreement on the participation of our state in the components of the EU Space Programme: Copernicus, Space Weather Events (SWE) and Near-Earth Objects (NEO) [4]. In fact, this means almost full access to European satellite data on Earth monitoring, space weather and dangerous objects. For a country at war, this is an important breakthrough: a legal and systematic data channel instead of the manual mode of "send a couple more pictures, please."
But the built-in problem is not going away. Copernicus — is primarily a civil history. Its tasks are floods, fires, climate, urbanization. It was not created as a tool for waging war. Ukraine, under the terms of the agreement, does not receive access to the closed security components of the program, and it is simply dangerous to expect that European satellites will track the movement of Russian battalion tactical groups in real time.
Trying to replace your own space doctrine with access to Copernicus is like buying an expensive pair of binoculars and thinking you've got a sniper scope. Useful, but not enough.
Phantom Star Wars
The realization that constantly asking partners for pictures is a dead end came late to Kyiv. Only in 2025 did the Ministry of Defense create the Space Policy Department and publicly announce the formation of the Space Forces. The government’s program of activities provides for: by December 31, 2025, to complete the update of the structure of the Defense Forces taking into account the new type of troops, determine the legal and organizational principles of their functioning, and achieve at least 60% operational readiness of the integrated air defense/missile defense, cyber, and space components.
On paper, this looks like the right answer to a 21st century war. In practice, it’s like an attempt to build a Ukrainian Space Force in a few blocks on the foundation of Soviet bureaucracy. You can draw a logo quickly. It’s much more difficult to create a real control system, launch your own satellites, integrate them with air defense and drones, and train people to work with data, not departmental reports.
While the government talks about a “new model of defense forces,” space for Ukraine remains a mix of volunteer campaigns, scattered commercial initiatives, and old enterprises that live on memories of the Zenit that once flew. They try to wrap this Soviet scrap metal with buzzwords like “situational awareness” and “integrated systems,” but it’s like sticking a neon sign on a factory dormitory where the lights have long since been turned off.
The price of national blindness
In a month, we will most likely hear bravura statements that the Space Forces have been created and the government's plan has been implemented. Formally, this will be true: a new branch of the military will appear in the structure, staffing levels and job descriptions will be approved, and reports on the "development" of budgets will be prepared.
The physics of war, unlike government presentations, does not read reports. If we do not have our own satellite intelligence, independent of the mood of the allies and the corrupt appetites of officials, we will remain blind at the most crucial moment. Participation in Copernicus [4] gives good binoculars, but the army needs a scope and its own satellite channel, not the eternal "ask for a picture."
The key question for next year sounds unpleasantly simple. Will the state be able to move beyond the role of a leased user of space and finally become its full-fledged player? Will it all end with the “paper” Space Forces becoming another beautiful abbreviation for reports in the style of “60% readiness,” behind which leased orbit and Soviet scrap metal will continue to be hidden?
Time has passed. Unlike our satellites, The deadline will definitely go into orbit..
Sources
[1] Informator.UA — Ukraine plans to create Space Forces by the end of 2025: what are the tasks?
[2] RBC-Ukraine — Satellites and more. The Ministry of Defense told how they are moving towards the creation of space troops
[3] LIGA.net — Polish state fund buys stake in ICEYE
[4] Newssky — Ukraine will participate in EU programs to track space weather and dangerous objects
Maurice K for Newssky © 2025
