Strait of Hormuz: Battle for Oil, $11 Billion in 6 Days and Global Crisis

The world is on the brink of an unprecedented geopolitical and economic crisis. Imagine how the artery of global trade, through which a fifth of all oil passes, suddenly turns into a battlefield, where every tanker becomes a potential target. The price of oil is soaring, military budgets are reaching astronomical figures, and peaceful cities are suffering devastating blows. The conflict between the United States and Iran, which has flared up around the Strait of Hormuz, is already redrawing the global security and energy map, threatening devastating consequences for everyone who depends on the stability of international markets.

Global Energy Crisis: The Strait of Hormuz at the Epicenter

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow strategic passage between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, has become the hottest spot on the planet. Three ships have been attacked by missiles near the vital waterway in recent days. Sources close to US intelligence have reported that Tehran has begun mining the strait, a direct challenge to international shipping and a threat to the complete paralysis of global oil supplies. ¹Although US President Donald Trump has expressed doubts about the success of Iran's actions, the reality on the ground suggests otherwise: Iran has effectively taken control of the strait. This move not only increases tensions but also has far-reaching economic consequences.

Oil markets have reacted immediately and dramatically. Oil prices have risen by 38 cents in the past week alone, and by 64 cents in the past month, as a direct result of the war and the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about 20 percent of the world's oil. ²Despite the global panic, Iranian oil producers are paradoxically increasing production and loading more crude onto tankers in the strait than before the conflict. In the past six days, Iran has loaded 2,1 million barrels of oil, slightly more than its pre-war average of 2 million barrels. ³. This oil, mostly destined for the “shadow fleet” that delivers it to China, shows that Tehran is demonstrating its ability to control the situation in a critical region while using this leverage to finance its military efforts. The limited actions of the US administration on Iranian oil are likely due to the desire to prevent further increases in energy prices, which only confirms the complexity of the geopolitical puzzle.

In response to the threats, the G7 countries – Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States and the European Union – held an urgent video conference to discuss the economic consequences of the war. Among the measures being considered is the possibility of escorting ships by military forces when security conditions allow. However, any such effort will require careful consultation with shipping companies and insurers, who are already reviewing their rates to reflect the increased risks. ⁴This situation highlights the critical importance of energy independence and accelerating the transition to electrification to reduce dependence on geopolitical shocks.

The Middle East Spiral: From Tehran to Beirut

The conflict that began between the United States and Iran is rapidly escalating, drawing more and more regional players into the orbit of violence. Israel announced the start of a “large-scale wave of strikes” on the suburbs of Beirut after the Lebanese group Hezbollah fired what the Israeli military said were “dozens” of rockets, later specifying “more than 100.” ⁵. The strikes targeted Hezbollah infrastructure in the southern suburbs of Beirut, particularly in the Dahiya district, considered a hub for the Iranian-backed organization. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had warned residents in advance of the upcoming operation, urging them to evacuate immediately.

In response to the Israeli strikes, Hezbollah announced the launch of “Operation Asf al-Maqul” (Arabic for “Eat Straw”), invoking an image of destruction from a Quranic story. This intensifies the rhetoric and threatens further escalation that could have devastating consequences for an already fragile Lebanon. Lebanese Justice Minister Adel Nassar has openly called Hezbollah an obstacle to the government’s efforts to deal with the humanitarian consequences of the war, underscoring the deep internal divisions in the country. ⁶.

Geographically, the conflict extends far beyond the traditional battlefields. In Oman, a fire at the fuel storage facilities at the port of Salalah, believed to have been caused by an Iranian Shahed drone, has become an emergency. ⁷. This incident is particularly telling, as Oman is traditionally considered a neutral country that often mediates in regional conflicts. A strike on its territory is a serious challenge and could undermine its peacekeeping role. Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq expressed his “disapproval and unequivocal condemnation” of the strikes to Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian, while reaffirming Oman’s neutrality.

Iraq is also under constant threat. The US embassy in Baghdad has warned that Iran and its armed proxies in Iraq may be planning attacks on “American oil and energy infrastructure.” These groups have already attacked hotels frequented by Americans and diplomatic missions. ⁸Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani assured American officials of the protection of US interests, but did not publicly comment on the role of Iranian-backed militias seeking to drag Iraq into a broader regional conflict.

Economic Burden and Geopolitical Repercussions

The financial toll of this war is staggering. According to preliminary estimates presented by the Pentagon to US lawmakers, the war with Iran cost at least $11 billion in the first six days of the conflict. ⁹. In the first two days alone, over $5 billion worth of ammunition was used. These figures vividly illustrate the enormous economic burden placed on taxpayers and raise questions about the long-term strategy and sustainability of such a conflict.

The international response has been mixed. The UN Security Council has adopted a resolution, initiated by Bahrain, demanding that Iran immediately cease its attacks on Gulf states. The resolution was supported by 13 members, while Russia and China abstained. ¹⁰, which highlights the geopolitical complexity and division within the global community over the response to the conflict. These “abstentions” can be interpreted as tacit consent or at least a reluctance to openly condemn Iran’s actions, making it difficult to form a united front.

In parallel with these developments, attempts at diplomatic dialogue continue. The Russian envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, held meetings with Trump administration officials in Florida, including the president's son-in-law, Jared Kushner. The meetings focused on Russian-American economic cooperation. ¹¹, which points to a complex network of international relations, where even during regional conflicts, the search for bilateral interests continues.

The U.S. has mixed views on the war. Senator Lisa Murkowski has been outspoken in her criticism of President Trump's actions, calling for public hearings and saying the administration's conflicting messages are causing confusion. Her call for transparency and justification for military action has found support among other lawmakers, especially amid the need for additional funding. ¹². Popular podcaster Joe Rogan has suggested that Trump supporters feel “betrayed” by the president’s decision to go to war with Iran, indicating deep divisions and frustration within the electorate. ¹³.

In California, Governor Gavin Newsom confirmed that federal authorities have alerted state officials to unverified claims by Iranian actors about potential drone attacks off the coast. While no “immediate threat” has been identified, the information is troubling and demonstrates how the conflict could have repercussions far beyond the Middle East. ¹⁴.

Environmental Impacts: The Silent Crisis

Large-scale military operations in the Middle East are not only causing human and economic losses, but also catastrophic environmental consequences. Experts warn of potential oil spills, damage to coral reefs and landslides. Shock waves from underwater explosions caused by mining the strait can cause hearing damage, disorientation and even death to whales, dolphins and other marine species. ¹⁵In addition, explosions damage reefs and other natural structures.

When military targets are destroyed, hazardous materials are rarely completely neutralized, leading to further contamination. Residues of fuels, oils, heavy metals, and substances released during fires pose a serious threat. Even traditional munitions contaminate the soil with explosives that can remain in the soil for a long time and harm vegetation. For example, TNT, which is used in explosives, is classified as a possible human carcinogen ¹⁶These chemicals seep into groundwater, threatening drinking water and agriculture.

Attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz have already resulted in oil spills that threaten the unique marine ecosystems of the Persian Gulf, known for its coral reefs and diverse marine life. The long-term consequences include biodiversity degradation and long-term cleanup costs that could run into billions of dollars. Despite the immediate fighting, this “silent crisis” has the potential to cause long-term suffering and irreversible change in a vulnerable region.

At the Crossroads of History: The Future of the Region

The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, unfolding before our eyes, is one of the most complex geopolitical puzzles of the century. It has already changed the dynamics of the Middle East and affected the global economy. Clash of interests, historical grievances, and the struggle for resources create an explosive mixture where every step can have unpredictable consequences.

Also important in this drama are three small islands located directly at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz - the Greater and Lesser Tombs and Abu Musa. These islands, which have been the subject of a territorial dispute between Iran and the UAE for decades, have once again found themselves in the spotlight. Their strategic location allows them to control shipping, and, according to analysts, Iran is increasing its military presence on them, turning them into a kind of “unsinkable aircraft carriers” that ensure dominance in the strait ¹⁷.

The current situation requires the international community not only to respond quickly, but also to deeply analyze the long-term prospects. Will the world be able to find a way to de-escalate, or will the conflict continue to expand, attracting more and more new players and destroying the remnants of regional stability? The answers to these questions will determine the fate of not only the Middle East, but the entire planet for decades to come.

The security of global energy flows, the fate of millions of people living in conflict zones, and the future of international law are all at stake. The world watches with bated breath as a new chapter in Middle Eastern history unfolds, one that has the potential to fundamentally alter the geopolitical landscape.