Musician of the Apocalypse. What does Prigozhin want to be the president of?

Exclusive. Yevgeny Prigozhin announced his intention to run for president of Ukraine in 2024. In other words, he recognized, albeit in a parodic form, the inability of Russia in general, and PMC "Wagner" in particular, to change anything in Ukraine with the help of brute force.

Yevgeny Prigogine

Prigozhin promised that if he won the Ukrainian elections, then "everything will be fine, projectileы will not be necessaryы». "WITHoutfitы will not be necessaryы" is an obvious remake "just stop shooting". Of course, it is not possible to verify all this in practice. Prigozhin, who is wanted in all the civilized countries of the world, will simply not be allowed to participate in the Ukrainian elections for many formal reasons. Of course, he could do that... although he's just kidding himself.

Or not just? And not easy?

Undoubtedly, Prigozhin deliberately stirs up outrage in the information field, insisting that he is talking about himself (and, yes, I am talking about him). But Wagnerian entrepreneur too rational to do it just for fun. Everything is definitely much more complicated.

Let's leave aside, until the second time, all the unflattering epithets addressed to Prigozhin. Yes, PMC "Wagner" is a terrorist organization, and Prigozhin himself is a war criminal, and one of the future defendants at the International Tribunal for Russia. If, of course, he will live to see him, and will not be able to hide somewhere in the African hinterland, where he will surely have a bed prepared for him, and not just one. This is all understandable, but let's look at the situation from a distance.

So, why now is Prigozhin promoting himself in Russia at the level of an ordinary man, the same "stupidпother people"? Obviously, for some reason, he needs support and sympathy in the Russian grassroots. Moreover, it is precisely at the grassroots, and not at the hardware level. At the Russian apparatus level, such an outrage can earn Prigozhin only additional enemies, which the head of "Wagner" already has in abundance. Why does he need all this?

Some commentators say that Prigozhin wants to lose handsomely to Putin in the presidential elections of 2024, somewhere at the level of 17% to 27%, and thus increase his political weight. Let's say that's the case - and where will we go next? with such a weight?

Others assume that Prigozhin has already started preparing for the Duma elections in 2026. One version does not exclude the other, well, let’s say he started preparing — but why does he have this?

A three-year long run for a chair in the General Assembly? Too complicated, and again, why?

Prigozhin's ambitions are much more serious.

They are so serious that he did not want to implement them as part of the LDPR, although he could have made his way to the No. 1 position in the party, pushed boring Leonid Slutsky, or shared power with him conveniently for both of them. Slutsky is uncomfortable on the front line, and, having received the necessary guarantees, he would willingly have gone to the second ranks, engaged in non-public intra-party affairs, allowed Prigozhin to shine in the rays of public glory and became his political rear. Such a tandem would be beneficial to both of them, and Prigozhin, playing as a pair, would gradually eclipse Zhirynovsky. After all, the late son of a lawyer did not have his PMC, nor African gold, uranium, and diamonds — but Prigozhin has them. And Prigozhin was called to the LDPR. But he not only did not want to come, but he also refused, in an extremely rude manner. That is, he completely broke off relations and blew up all possible bridges to the future.

What for?

As an independent deputy, Prigozhin can get a seat in the State House of Representatives this fall, having nominated himself for by-elections in the Simferopol District No. 19 in the temporarily occupied Crimea. It will be surprising if he loses. In principle, it is possible to present and pocket the deputy mandate together with the opportunity to speak from the Duma tribune. But just why? Meaning? Get insured? On the scale of the game that Prigozhin is playing, such insurance looks ridiculous. Will he prepare his own party project by 2026? From scratch? This is possible, but, again, why, if he could sit on a ready and strong project of the LDPR, in the same three years rebuild it for himself, and the niche in Russian politics left by Zhirynovsky is not occupied by anyone yet. Moreover, there are no applicants for this niche, except for him. But, again, why does Prigozhin need this niche? What will he do in it?

In fact, Prigozhin is already firmly present in the Russian political field. He does not need to "establish himself" there - he is already a political figure, right now, here and now.

Yevgeny Prigogine

But a very specific figure in a specific position.

In wartime, even leaving the Duma faction No. 2 leader is a clear demotion for Prigozhin. The head of faction No. 1, ER, ego will not be put for many reasons, and, besides, it is definitely "not ego". He will not be Putin's successor either - not on the same scale. And if these are plans for the post-war world? Then, in principle, the leader of faction No. 2 is still nothing, normal. However, this also depends on what the post-war world will be like. And, again, let's assume that this is so - and Prigozhin builds his plans for "after the war". Well, why then did he not want to do business with the LDPR, having a very strong position at the entrance to it? Maybe because the LDPR absolutely not in that picture of the post-war world that Prigozhin draws for himself?

Be that as it may, today there is a situation where the strong and charismatic figure of Prigozhin, clearly one of those who are "popular with the people", completely drops out of the existing system. Moreover, Prigozhin does not want to bend to this system, constantly demonstrating how ambitious and daring he is. He definitely plans to bend the system to himself.

Ok, we managed to bring some clarity on a number of issues. So:

• Prigozhin's political maneuvers are most likely aimed at for post-war peace, because today he takes the strongest position possible for him, and does not seek to support it with something else within the framework of the existing system.
• It follows from Prigozhin's reluctance to expand his influence within the framework of the current political system in Russia he predicts its complete reformatting and tries to minimize connections with it, so as not to inadvertently grow a long and heavy tail from a bygone era, which in new times will become a hindrance to him. Hence the anti-system position is emphasized.
• At the same time, the status of a terrorist and the head of a terrorist organization of Prigozhin, in general, does not matter, this is quite clearly visible. If he considers it at least to some extent a problem, then it is definitely not a primary or even a secondary problem, but somewhere much further.

Yevgeny Prigogine

We estimate the options and limits of changes to the political system in Russia that preserves its integrity, in any conceivable course of events... and we do not find a place for Prigozhin there. And then the puzzle finally comes together: Prigozhin predicts the disintegration of Russia and long-term chaos, which will first cause a complete shuffling and reshuffling of the entire Russian political deck, and then options for the atonement of past sins for those who will be able to create some semblance of order in this chaos. At least on parts of the former Russian territory. And here the final goal of his maneuvers begins to be seen. He definitely wants to be president. But not Ukraine. And not Russia. And something that does not yet exist, but that, according to him, will appear tomorrow. In the worst case, the day after tomorrow.

It's good, but where can the borders of this conditional new country pass? Here, after all, the trick is that in the end it will be recognized as an acceptable compromise by both the West, China, Turkey, and other fragments of Russia. What should guarantee Prigozhin's recognition also turned him from a terrorist into a "useful son of a bitch" in the eyes of major players.

We look at the geography of mercenary recruitment centers and clubs of young "Wagnerites" that PMC "Wagner" opens "all over Russia", and we see, mainly, Siberia. There is still a lot of interest in St. Petersburg, but local, even without claims to the Leningrad region — yes, yes, it is still Leningrad. It can be assumed that Prigozhin plans to play in St. Petersburg in the near-medium term, that is, until 2026, while Siberia is a medium-long-term project.

Zhuravlev was read? No? In vain But Prigozhin seems to have read it.

Is Prigozhin alone in his plans? No, of course. The prospect of Russia's disintegration is too obvious the preparation of private armies, which will then win back new states to their owners, is in full swing. And Ramzan Kadyrov announced in his Telegram channel about his intention to create a private military company after completing his work in the civil service. That's right, everyone thought that he was very bad and was about to die, but he was alive and making plans for a new life after leaving the state service.

However, the list of private armies that are already being formed to start dividing Russia tomorrow is a separate story. But Prigozhin is undoubtedly in the lead in this list. For now, anyway.

Sergey Ilchenko, columnist Newsky