Migration for Friedrich: how two Germanys collided

ExclusiveFollowing Friedrich Merz's victory at the head of the CDU/CSU bloc in the 2025 elections (which forced him to form a tentatively centrist coalition with the SPD), Germany is experiencing the most significant overhaul of its crisis migration policy in a decade.

According to the Federal Office for Migration [1], the number of asylum applications has almost halved, while deportations have increased by around 20–25%. But behind the facade of “efficiency” lies a deeper process: a growing divide between the historically “Eastern” and “Western” perspectives on immigration, which is increasingly defining the political map of the country.

New politics and old injuries

The Meretz government is trying to implement a kind of migration reform in three main areas[2]: stricter asylum procedures, strengthened border controls, and parallel opening of visas for qualified professionals.

The reduction in the number of applications was an obvious success, but the effect was uneven. In the east of Germany, the reform was perceived as a signal of “finally some order,” while in the west, it was seen as an opportunity to somehow close the personnel shortage in a normal way. Thus, economic priorities once again divided the country.

East Germany: the memory of Syrian 2015 and the new wave of the AfD

In Thuringia and Saxony, where the memory of the “Merkel crisis” of 2015, when the country took in over a million refugees, is still fresh, migration remains a top topic.

AfD support is over 30%, and its leaders are actively playing on fears [5]. Paradoxically, the fewer migrants, the louder the discussions about the “threat”. In the autumn, protests broke out in Brandenburg and Berlin after the Chancellor’s controversial statements about the “social magnet” of migration – when Merz stated that too lenient social benefits “attract” asylum seekers [4].

This sparked a wave of criticism from the opposition (and parts of the ruling coalition) as well as human rights activists, who accused the government of discriminating against migrants (or “new citizens” or potential “new citizens”). It clearly demonstrated that the tension in German society is not disappearing, but only changing form.

Western lands: pragmatism and the labor market

In the historic west, especially in North Rhine-Westphalia and Bavaria, the debate is different. Here, businesses see migration as a resource, not a problem: the share of employed migrants has exceeded 60%, and support for the CDU/CSU remains at 30–35%. Additional workers have become an argument for moderate voters who are tired of extremes. At the same time, successful integration in the west creates a feeling of “another country”, which only increases the contrast with the east, which is still lagging behind in terms of private investment, over which a more dynamic and prosperous Poland looms.

Challenges facing Germany

According to estimates by the OECD and the German DIW Institute [2], the economy will grow by about 0,4% in 2025, and migration is one of the factors in the recovery of the labor market. However, in the east, only individual companies will benefit, while social tensions are growing. A study by the IFO Institute shows that there is no direct correlation between the number of foreigners and the level of crime [3]. However, in the political sphere, numbers are inferior to emotions - and populists skillfully exploit this.

What's next: the 2026 elections and the test of unity

Next year, three eastern states will elect new parliaments, and the AfD has a chance of winning more than 30% of the vote. For Merz, this will be a test: whether he can hold the center without blurring the line between conservatism and radicalism. Ultimately, it is precisely on whether Germany finds a balance between “eastern discipline” and “western integration” that stability will be preserved after a year of turbulent reforms in different directions in the conditions of another “shirka” – the so-called “grand coalition” with the center-left.

Sources:

[1] BAMF — Asylum applications 2025 H1 report, July 2025.

[2] OECD — Economic Survey of Germany 2025.

[3] IFO Institute — More Foreigners Do Not Increase Crime Rate, February 2025.

[4] Reuters / EURACTIV — Protests after Merz's remarks, October 2025.

[5] DW — AfD maintains 30% support in eastern states, February 2025.

Maurice K for Newsky © 2025