Merz returns to the topic: Ukraine's associated membership in the EU at the June summit

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is preparing to re-propose a proposal for a special status for Ukraine in the European Union at a time when Brussels' attention is focused on enlargement to the Western Balkans and Moldova.

In just a few days, on June 18-19, 2026, the leaders of the European Union countries will gather in Brussels. On the agenda are not only the usual budget and defense issues, but also the sensitive topic of enlargement. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz plans to return to the idea of ​​"associated membership" for Ukraine, which he first voiced a few months ago. Sources in the German government confirm that after a positive reaction to a similar initiative regarding the Western Balkans and Moldova, a new political momentum has emerged.

What exactly does Berlin offer?

Merz's proposal is to grant Ukraine an interim status that would allow it to gradually integrate into certain EU policies without immediately granting full membership. This format provides access to the internal market, participation in programs and funds, but without voting rights in the EU Council and the European Council. According to a source in the German government, the Chancellor sees this approach as a realistic way to accelerate economic and legal convergence without creating an excessive burden on EU institutions.

At the summit on June 18-19, the leaders will agree to hold a more intensive discussion on this issue in October. It is possible that the first framework decisions may be adopted then. Thus, the June summit will not be the final point, but the start of a new phase of negotiations.

Kyiv's reaction: support with reservations

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga positively assessed the very fact of the discussion. At the same time, he clearly stated: associate membership cannot be a substitute for full accession. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed a tougher position in a letter to European leaders. He believes that such a format is unfair, as it deprives Ukraine of the right to vote in key decisions that directly affect its future.

Ukrainian diplomacy emphasizes that the country has already fulfilled a significant part of the requirements related to the rule of law and anti-corruption reforms. Therefore, any interim status should be accompanied by a clear timetable for the transition to full membership.

Positions of other capitals and legal challenges

In Brussels, the German initiative has caused a mixed reaction. Some countries, in particular Ireland, have warned of the risks of erosion of the acquis communautaire. EU Council lawyers point out that the creation of a new status will require changes to the treaties or at least complex legal structures. The practical implementation also raises questions: how to combine associated membership with the already existing Association Agreement and deep free trade area.

France, which traditionally supports closer coordination with Germany, is generally supportive of the idea, but insists on maintaining high standards for all candidates. Central European countries, especially Poland and the Baltic states, express concern that associated membership could become a “pacifying” formula that postpones actual accession indefinitely.

Parallels with the Western Balkans and Moldova

The German-French initiative on the Western Balkans and Moldova, approved last week, has been a catalyst for a new debate on Ukraine. EU leaders have seen that more flexible integration formats can send a positive signal to candidates without creating excessive political pressure on existing members. It is this experience that Merz plans to use as an argument in favor of a similar approach to Ukraine.

Experts emphasize: Moldova and the Western Balkan countries have smaller economies and other geopolitical circumstances. Ukraine is at war, so any decision on its status will have much broader implications for the security of the entire continent.

Economic dimension and practical implications

Associated membership could give Ukraine limited access to EU structural funds and speed up the harmonisation of legislation in energy, the digital market and agriculture. However, without a vote, Kyiv would not be able to influence the rules that would later have to be implemented. This creates the risk of “integration without representation” – a situation that the Ukrainian side considers unacceptable.

Analysts have estimated that Ukraine’s full membership in the EU could add up to 0,8–1,2% to European GDP within a decade of accession. Intermediate status, they estimate, would yield a smaller but still noticeable effect — about 0,3–0,5% of additional growth for both sides.

What will happen in October?

The October European Council summit should be a key milestone. If leaders agree to launch negotiations on associate membership, the first legal framework could appear as early as 2027. At the same time, Kyiv will insist that any document contain clear criteria and deadlines for the transition to full membership.

The European Commission, for its part, is preparing additional analytical materials to form the basis of the October discussion. It is expected that these documents will take into account the experience of previous enlargements and the specifics of martial law in Ukraine.

Conclusion: a balance between pragmatism and principles

The idea of ​​associated membership reflects Germany's desire to find a compromise between its desire to support Ukraine and the real limitations of EU institutions. Kyiv, in turn, is ready for flexibility, but not at the expense of the ultimate goal of full membership. The coming months will show whether European leaders will be able to find a formula that satisfies all parties.