Make Money, Not War. Why is the “peace plan” of Trump’s friends a trap?

Exclusive. Today, not only the front line is being determined for Ukraine, but also the balance line. A sensational leak from The Wall Street Journal showed: Donald Trump’s people are discussing the end of the war with Russia in the language of money, profitability and investment, and not in the language of justice [1]. Instead of making the Kremlin pay for its crimes, Ukraine is being offered to enter into a joint business with the aggressor. This is no longer diplomacy. This is an attempt to close the war as a loss-making asset and turn it into a new commercial deal.

Who is really sitting at the table?

The story is not about professional diplomats, but about people who have made their lives off of big (and extremely “specific”) deals. On the American side, the chief negotiator was New York developer Steve Witkoff, a longtime friend of Trump and now the official US special representative for peace [1]. He was joined by Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and co-author of the 28-point plan, which the press has already called “the Kremlin’s wish list” [2]. The formal political cover is provided by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, but he is alone in a team where businessmen, not strategists, set the tone [3][7].

On the Russian side is former Kyiv conman Kirill Dmitriev, now head of the opaque Russian Direct Investment Fund. It was he who, according to The Guardian, discussed with Witkoff options for a “peaceful settlement” in which economic incentives, not troop withdrawal, were the key [2]. This is not a negotiation between states in Geneva. This is a meeting of people who are used to counting not human lives, but net profit.

At the same time, the Ukrainian delegation flew to the US in a changed composition - without Andriy Yermak. Now the Chief of the General Staff Anatoly Bargylevych and the Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov are sitting at the table with Trump's people [7]. Against the background of political pressure from Washington, they are forced to negotiate with a team whose priority is not the NATO charter, but financial indicators. This does not look like a peace process, but an attempt to impose an agreement on Ukraine that "cannot be refused."

How war turns into two funds

The heart of the plan is Russia’s frozen assets. About $300 billion is stored in the G7 countries and the rest of the EU outside the G7 [4]. These funds were supposed to go to compensate war victims. Vitkoff and Dmitriev propose something else: not to confiscate the assets, but to unfreeze them and direct them to the creation of new investment funds [1].

The first fund (approximately $100 billion of Russian money + $100 billion from Europe) is presented as a fund for the reconstruction of Ukraine [4]. But even here, control over the distribution of funds will most likely remain with the United States. The second fund ($200 billion) is being launched for joint global projects between the United States and Russia — in energy, logistics, and trade. That is, instead of punishment, Russia is being returned to the world economy as a full-fledged partner.

In this scheme, Ukraine finds itself in the role of a junior partner. It is promised money for reconstruction, but concessions are demanded: loss of territories, limitation of the army, and rejection of NATO [2]. First, it is forced to “shrink”, and then investments are offered on the terms of the senior players.

The price of the deal for Ukraine and Europe

According to World Bank estimates, reconstruction needs already exceed $524 billion [5]. The promised $100 billion from the “Witkoff Fund” is a drop in the ocean, less than a fifth of what is needed. At the same time, Europe is being put in an awkward position: it is the European budgets that have to add another hundred billion to make the scheme work. The security of the continent becomes secondary in this logic.

The paradox is that this plan is financially deadly even for Washington. Analysts from the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) warn that saving on aid to Ukraine today is an illusion [6]. If Kyiv falls, the US will be forced to deploy a huge Cold War-era military contingent on NATO’s eastern border (from Poland to Romania). The cost of maintaining such an armada and new air defense systems will exceed $808 billion [6]. This is seven times more expensive than supporting Ukraine until complete victory. But businessmen who think in terms of quarterly reports find it easier to show “savings” now than to explain to voters why tomorrow they will have to pay for Poland’s defense at the cost of their own well-being.

Peace or a pause between wars?

Supporters of the “money for war” formula call it pragmatism. But in the Russian version, such pragmatism means that the occupation becomes legal, and the lifted sanctions allow the Kremlin to rearm. For Moscow, this is critically important, because the current restrictions deprive the Russian Federation of more than $ 1 billion in revenue every month [NS1]. Witkoff’s plan allows them to stop this bleeding.

If Kyiv agrees to this plan, it will not get peace, but respite (and even that is unlikely). Russia will keep what it has captured and will gain access to Western markets. Ukraine will receive conditional money under someone else's control. Trump loves deals, and Putin loves traps. The plan, which is promoted today as a "business way out of war", may become a sponsor of new aggression tomorrow.

The most cynical thing here is that this deal looks like a classic “postponed problem.” Trump, like a “lame duck” in his second term, doesn’t care about the elections. He needs a quick “historical success” for his memoirs — to sign some piece of paper, declare the end of the war, and leave. And when in a few months this structure collapses and the Russian tanks move forward again, it will be up to his successors to untangle this bloody mess. It is to them that Trump is leaving this bitter pill of geopolitical bankruptcy, wrapped in a beautiful wrapper of an “investment plan.”

Sources:

[1] WSJ — Trump envoy Witkoff suggested Ukraine seek zero tariffs rather than Tomahawks

[2] The Guardian — Trump envoy Witkoff reportedly advised Kremlin official on Ukraine peace deal

[3] AP News — Kremlin confirms US envoy Witkoff will visit as talks gain momentum

[4] Euronews — Russian frozen assets — what's next?

[5] World Bank — Ukraine recovery and reconstruction needs assessment

[6] American Enterprise Institute — Dollars and Sense: America's Interest in a Ukrainian Victory

[7] Reuters — Ukrainian delegation heads to US peace talks

Maurice K for Newsky © 2025