Lukashenko raised the Belarusian army on alert: what lies behind the sudden full combat readiness

Night of maneuvers: the Belarusian army on the verge - a test of real combat capability or a political game by the Kremlin?

On October 10, Alexander Lukashenko, the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, urgently ordered his Armed Forces to be put on full combat alert.^{1 2 3 4 5} The official explanation of the Ministry of Defense is a “complex of verification measures” under the control of the Security Council; unofficially, the increase in risks ahead of possible provocations on the border and pressure from Moscow after the completion of the Zapad-2025 strategic exercises. In the rear of the country, there is the movement of military equipment, the advancement of units to new areas, and the inspection of the command post. What is behind this order and is it worth waiting for an escalation?

Tactics and procedure: how exactly the order for combat readiness is carried out

According to data from Minsk, some units are advancing to "designated areas", where maneuvers are taking place, communications, interaction of headquarters, and the deployment of field hospitals are being tested.^{1 2 3 4} Personnel, including those mobilized from the reserve, prepare equipment for use, check weapons, conduct shooting and emergency training at unfamiliar training grounds.^{3 5 6}

The maneuvers should demonstrate readiness not only to respond to sudden aggression, but also to effectively coordinate forces in the event of a limited act of force — in particular, against the backdrop of the growing activity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the border and constant NATO exercises near the Polish-Lithuanian border.^{7 8}

Reasons: why now and what are they saying in Minsk and Moscow?

The order to implement full combat readiness is a response to three factors. First, the Russian-Belarusian exercises "West-2025", which ended in late September, where up to 100 thousand soldiers and 10 thousand pieces of equipment tested samples of joint tactics.^{4 7 9}
Secondly, the deployment of the new Belarusian Oreshnik missile system and increased security at critical facilities.^{1 4}
The third motive is the increasing risks of provocations on the Ukrainian border and disruptions in communication with the Polish-Lithuanian line, in particular, in response to the blockade of the Suwałki Corridor.^{8 10}

Officially, Lukashenko emphasizes the defense doctrine, "guaranteeing security," but ISW experts and analysts believe that there will be no large-scale offensive, the goal is to stretch the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and force Ukraine to spend resources on additional protection of the northern border.^{9 11}

What is the real combat capability of the Belarusian army as of October 2025?

According to foreign analysts, in Belarus up to 30–40% of the troops are regular combat units, the rest are reserves.^{9 11} There are about 17–21 military personnel with equipment truly ready for the offensive, the rest are involved in training, infrastructure protection, and internal control.^{10 12} Mobilization has not been announced, which indicates the limited nature of the inspection.

The use of new missile systems and maneuvers allows us to actually demonstrate loyalty to the Kremlin, but does not pose a real threat to Ukraine or NATO countries.^{7 8 10}

Threats to Ukraine and NATO: what will change after these maneuvers?

Currently, the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs are strictly monitoring changes on the border, local activity of equipment, and the movement of personnel.^{10 11 12} In the Gomel region, the fortification of positions has been strengthened, the level of air control has been increased, and constant satellite and radio technical monitoring is being conducted.^{9 10}

For Ukraine, this is a new challenge: the need to spend resources on a permanent reserve, additional mobilization in border regions, and a rapid response to potential migration crises. For NATO, it is a test of readiness for hybrid provocations, blocking the Suwałki Corridor, and a joint response by Poland and Lithuania.^{8 10}

Political component: Lukashenko between the West and the Kremlin

Amidst the high-profile military maneuvers, Lukashenko is trying to balance between supporting the Kremlin and sending signals to the West.^{11 13} Public rhetoric is an "independent defensive path," but all real steps are a demonstration of loyalty to Moscow, an attempt to avoid sanctions, maintain control over the internal situation, and strengthen the vertical of power.

At the same time, Belarus is preparing information campaigns for its own population and international partners: emphasizing the "need for a combat test" and "preserving stability" in the conflict zone.

Conclusions: Should we wait for a real escalation?

The order for full combat readiness is not a signal for an offensive, but a diplomatic tool aimed at stretching the enemy's forces and testing crisis management. Ukraine and NATO are strengthening defenses, but expect only situational maneuvers and loud statements from Lukashenko.^{9 10 12} For Belarus, this is proof that the game in the political-military space between the giants is controllable.

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