JPMorgan: Finnish scenario for ending the war in Ukraine

The vision of a future where the line between defeat and compromise becomes a thin line on the map of Europe forces us to rethink the course of events that have been going on for over four years.

A report by JPMorgan Chase analysts, published in May 2026, outlines the most likely path to ending the Russian-Ukrainian war. The bank's experts believe that the parties will eventually sit down at the negotiating table, and the result will be a model similar to post-war Finland. Ukraine may lose some territories, but will retain its independence, its own army and a course for European integration.

Positional stalemate at the front

According to the report, the line of contact has remained virtually unchanged for more than two years. Russian troops cannot break through Ukrainian defenses in any of the areas, and Ukrainian forces do not have sufficient resources for a large-scale counteroffensive. This situation is reminiscent of the positional war of the First World War, when both sides were exhausted without visible success. JPMorgan analysts emphasize that economic pressure on Russia through sanctions and military losses is gradually making the continuation of hostilities less profitable for the Kremlin.

In May 2026, according to international observers, daily losses of the Russian army fluctuate within 800–1200 people. At the same time, Ukraine receives a new batch of long-range missiles and air defense systems from the allies, which allows to stabilize the front, but does not give an advantage for the offensive. Such a balance of forces pushes both sides to seek a diplomatic solution.

The essence of the "Finnish scenario"

The historical parallel with Finland after World War II underlies the forecast. Then Helsinki lost about 10% of its territory, agreed to neutral status and limitations on the size of the army, but retained a democratic system and a market economy. Similarly, according to JPMorgan, Ukraine may give up part of Donetsk, Luhansk and possibly southern Zaporizhia regions, but will receive security guarantees from the West and the right to membership in the European Union.

The bank's document notes that neutral status will not mean a complete rejection of cooperation with NATO. Ukraine will be able to participate in joint exercises and receive weapons, but will not have formal membership in the Alliance for the next 15–20 years. Such restrictions will allow Russia to save face and present the result as a political victory.

Probability of different scenarios

JPMorgan's updated estimates differ significantly from the forecasts for 2024–2025. Then the “Georgian scenario” was considered the basic one — the actual return of Ukraine to the Russian sphere of influence. Today, its probability has dropped to 30%. In contrast, the “Finnish scenario” received a 50% chance of implementation. The “Israeli” option — the creation of a powerful army based on the Israeli model — is estimated at 10%, and the “South Korea” and “Belarus” scenarios — 5% each.

The bank's experts explain the change in priorities by several factors. First, the stability of the Ukrainian economy, which grew by 3,8% in 2025 thanks to arms exports and IT services. Second, increased European support: in April 2026, the EU approved a new aid package worth 45 billion euros. Third, domestic political processes in Russia, where economic difficulties are gradually undermining the rating of the current government.

Negotiations as the only way out

The report emphasizes that neither side is capable of achieving a complete military victory in the near future. Therefore, negotiations are becoming inevitable. Analysts suggest that the first serious contacts may take place as early as the fall of 2026, mediated by Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The main points of the agreement will be: recognition of new borders, neutral status of Ukraine, limitation of the size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to 400 thousand people and the creation of a demilitarized zone along the new demarcation line.

At the same time, Ukraine will insist on receiving international security guarantees, similar to the Budapest Memorandum, but with real implementation mechanisms. Russia, for its part, will demand the lifting of some sanctions and recognition of the “new realities” at the international level.

Economic consequences for Ukraine

According to JPMorgan, the implementation of the “Finnish scenario” will allow Ukraine to return to GDP growth rates of 5–6% per year as early as 2027. Infrastructure restoration, attracting foreign investment, and integration into European supply chains will be the main drivers. At the same time, the loss of industrial regions in the east will require a large-scale program of retraining and population resettlement.

International financial institutions are already preparing special credit lines for post-war reconstruction. The World Bank in May 2026 published a preliminary estimate of Ukraine's needs of $380 billion for the next ten years. Part of this money will go to create new industrial clusters in the central and western regions.

Reaction of the international community

In Washington and Brussels, JPMorgan’s forecast was greeted with cautious optimism. Officials note that any agreement must be based on the principles of international law and include monitoring mechanisms. China, which had previously avoided a clear position, published its own peace initiative in April 2026, which partially coincides with the “Finnish scenario.”

In Kyiv, the reaction was more subdued. The presidential administration stressed that no territorial concessions would be discussed without security guarantees and the return of all prisoners. At the same time, informal discussions have already begun in the Verkhovna Rada on possible constitutional changes necessary for neutral status.