Iran chooses successor: who will replace Ayatollah Khamenei and what does this mean for the world?

Behind the scenes in Tehran, events are once again unfolding that promise to change the course of an entire nation. The media has been rocked by news that Iran appears to have named a successor to current Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This is not just domestic political intrigue, but a potential seismic shift that could reshape not only the future of millions of Iranians but also the geopolitical map of the entire Middle East. Who is this mysterious figure who could lead a state that is at a crossroads between tradition and modernity, and what consequences await the world in the face of this historic change?

Shadow in power: Who is the likely successor?

Reports that appeared in a number of international media outlets, including Al Arabiya¹ and other regional sources, indicate that a successor to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has already been chosen. The most frequently mentioned figure in these unconfirmed but persistent talks is Mojtaba Khamenei – the second son of the current leader. Although there is no official confirmation from Tehran, and the Iranian government system remains extremely opaque, these rumors take on special weight given the advanced age and possible health problems of 85-year-old Ali Khamenei.

Mojtaba Khamenei, despite the lack of significant official positions, is considered an influential figure in the apparatus struggle and in the management of informal power networks. He is known for his close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and influential religious circles in Qom. His potential ascension to the highest power is causing heated discussions both inside and outside Iran, as it could be perceived as a step towards the creation of a “dynastic” form of government, which contradicts the fundamental principles of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which rejected the hereditary monarchy.

Supreme Leader: Sacred Power and Its Mechanism

The position of Supreme Leader (Rahbar) in Iran is not just a political position, but an institution that combines religious, political, and military power. He is the head of state and the supreme commander of the armed forces. His decisions are final on all major domestic and foreign policy issues. The Supreme Leader’s influence extends to the judiciary, state media, foreign policy, and the economy. This unique model of theocratic rule was established by the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and is the foundation of the modern Iranian state.

Ali Khamenei has held this position since 1989, after the death of Khomeini. Over more than three decades, he has consolidated his power, surviving numerous crises and challenges, including the nuclear program, sanctions, regional conflicts and mass protests at home. His rule has been marked by further consolidation of power in the hands of conservative circles and a significant expansion of the influence of the IRGC. Analysts from the Council on Foreign Relations² note that Khamenei's legacy is an Iran that, despite external pressure, maintains relative stability within the country, but at the same time is a source of constant tension in the region and a difficult player on the world stage.

Raisi's Death: Changing the Rules of the Game in the Struggle for Inheritance

The recent tragic death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a plane crash in May 2024 has dramatically changed the dynamics of the struggle for supreme power. Raisi was considered one of the main contenders for the post of Supreme Leader. His conservative views, loyalty to the system and close ties to Ayatollah Khamenei made him a favorite of many in ruling circles. Reuters³ wrote that his death left a vacuum and forced a review of strategies for other potential successors, including Mojtaba Khamenei.

This unexpected development has not only accelerated the process of forming a new government, but also raised questions about future leadership. Now that one of the strongest competitors has been eliminated, the path for Mojtaba may seem more open, although it may also encourage other influential figures to take more active action. Diplomatic sources in Tehran spoke to BBC News⁴, note that internal factions are now actively regrouping, seeking new alliances and strategies to influence the Assembly of Experts.

Assembly of Experts: Architects of Iran's Future

Formally, the choice of the Supreme Leader belongs to the Assembly of Experts, an advisory body consisting of 88 senior clerics. The Assembly’s members are elected by popular vote every eight years. Their main function is to elect, monitor, and, if necessary, remove the Supreme Leader. However, in practice, the process of selecting candidates for the Assembly is strictly controlled by the Guardian Council, which ensures that conservative forces loyal to the current leadership prevail. Thus, the Assembly often acts as a tool for legitimizing already made decisions, rather than as an independent body.

The Assembly of Experts elections in March 2024 were marked by low turnout and the exclusion of many reformist and moderate candidates. This strengthened the position of conservatives and, according to Human Rights Watch,⁵, further complicating the possibility of any unauthorized changes in leadership. It is this Assembly that will be responsible for voting for Khamenei's successor, and its current composition suggests a high probability that the choice will be made in favor of a candidate who guarantees the preservation of the current course and the balance of power.

Mojtaba Khamenei: A Shadow Biography

Mojtaba Khamenei, born around 1969, holds no official government positions, but his influence is undeniable. He studied at the seminaries of Qom, earning the high religious rank of Hojat-ol-Islam, which allows him to teach and have his own students. His public profile is minimal, but his role as an advisor to his father and a mediator between the Supreme Leader and influential factions of the IRGC and intelligence services is widely known. Middle East Studies Institute (MEI)⁶ has repeatedly published analyses of Mojtaba's growing influence, noting his role in coordinating information operations and internal security.

His possible appointment has raised concerns among some Iranians, who see it as a sign of “dynasty” rule – a return to the hereditary rule that was overthrown by the Islamic Revolution. For many, it would mark a departure from the ideals of meritocracy and religious leadership based on virtue, towards a model where power is passed down through family lines. At the same time, for conservative circles seeking stability and the preservation of the status quo, Mojtaba could be an attractive candidate, as he would ensure political continuity and preserve family control over the system.

Geopolitical implications: New leader, old challenges?

The choice of the Supreme Leader's successor will have enormous implications for Iran's foreign policy. Will the confrontational course towards the US and Israel continue, or will a window for dialogue open? Will support for regional proxy groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas increase, or will Iran focus on domestic problems? Chatham House analysts⁷ predict that any successor will likely be forced to maintain anti-Western rhetoric and support Iran's regional ambitions in order not to appear weak in the eyes of the IRGC and conservative circles.

Mojtaba Khamenei, with his close ties to the IRGC, could lead to an even greater role for this powerful military-political entity in foreign policy and security. This could mean continued or even escalating tensions with the Gulf states, a strengthening of the “Axis of Resistance,” and further militarization of regional politics. At the same time, depending on the domestic situation and economic challenges, the new leader may be forced to seek more pragmatic approaches to managing the economy and relations with key trading partners, including China and Russia, which adds another variable to the Iranian equation.

Internal dynamics and the pulse of the people

Inside Iran, disillusionment is growing among the population, especially among the youth, who are demanding greater freedoms and economic opportunities. The mass protests that have swept the country in recent years reflect a deep dissatisfaction with the current state of affairs. The new leader will face the need to address these internal challenges: rising inflation, unemployment, water shortages, and restrictions on personal freedoms.

The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei could provoke a mixed reaction. While he has support among conservatives, his lack of a public political career and perception as an “heir” could provoke a new wave of discontent among reformist circles and a large part of the population that wants change. Washington Institute for Near East Policy⁸ warns that the legitimacy of the new leader will be a key issue, as he must establish his authority not only among the elite but also among millions of Iranians who are increasingly skeptical of the system. It is on his ability to find a balance between preserving Islamic principles and responding to modern challenges that Iran's future stability will depend.

Challenges and Prospects: Iran's Path to a New Century

Ali Khamenei’s successor will inherit a country at a crossroads. Domestic problems such as economic stagnation, social tensions, and demographic changes will require immediate solutions. External challenges, including the ongoing confrontation with the West, the nuclear program, regional instability, and complex relations with key players such as Russia and China, create a complex geopolitical environment.

Will the new leader be able to successfully navigate Iran through these turbulent waters? Will he choose a path of greater openness and reform, or will he pursue isolation and repression? The answers to these questions will determine not only Iran’s fate but also have a significant impact on global stability. This transition of power is a moment of heightened uncertainty and potential change that the world will be watching closely. This is not just a question of succession; it is a question of the future identity and course of one of the most important states in the Middle East.

Sources

1. Al Arabiya: Exclusive: Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei has already chosen his successor – Sources
2. Council on Foreign Relations: Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
3. Reuters: Iran president Ebrahim Raisi, a top contender to succeed Khamenei, was killed in a helicopter crash
4. BBC News: Ebrahim Raisi: Iran president dies in helicopter crash
5. Human Rights Watch: Iran: Sham Elections
6. Middle East Institute: Who Is Mojtaba Khamenei and How Powerful Is He?
7. Chatham House: Iranian Succession: What Next After Khamenei?
8. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy: Iran Succession: Who Are the Major Players and What Are the Stakes?