Jeremy Shapiro: Democratic Europe has the ability to destroy Trump's alliance with the European far-right

ExclusiveThe Trump administration and far-right European politicians have seized on the opportunity to transform the EU from within. Instead, this troubled alliance could be torn apart, argues Jeremy Shapiro, research director at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

President Donald Trump's dislike of the European Union is long-standing.

First of all, because the EU has a large trade surplus with America, because its size and economic power make it a tough negotiator, and because it can fine American companies owned by friends of the American president. But probably most of all, because he failed with the golf course in Ireland.

With the start of his second term, the Trump administration has found yet another reason to hate the EU. It turns out that the EU is also a bastion of liberal values.

So his goal is to weaken the Democrats’ European allies. Trump has many potential supporters in this fight: Europe’s emerging far-right political parties. They offer MAGA Republicans a new way to win this fight. Trump doesn’t need to destroy the EU to win the ideological war. He just needs to work with like-minded European partners to reshape the EU in their illiberal image.

At this point, the Trump administration’s ideological war in Europe has morphed headlong into a trade war, increasing its overall toxicity in Europe. His tariffs risk alienating the very constituencies that form the support base of Trump’s far-right allies. His rising unpopularity means that supporting Trump may seem politically disadvantageous to them. And these factors give liberal Europeans the opportunity to weaken Trump’s ideological war in Europe.

Trump's political friends are growing stronger in the EU. Last year's European Parliament elections resulted in the formation of the Patriots for Europe group, the third largest group in the European Parliament, formed by the Czech ANO, the Austrian Freedom Party, the Hungarian Fidesz and the French National Rally. This formation overtook the long-established European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), another far-right grouping, led by the Brothers of Italy and the Polish Law and Justice party.

The ties between Trump’s inner circle and the far-right in Europe go far beyond the well-known events of contacts with the Hungarian prime minister, the aging Viktor Orbán, or the charming Italian prime minister, Giorgia Maloni. The guest list for the president’s inauguration vividly illustrated the strengthening of ties with the far-right, including the main parties of the Patriots, the ECR, and even some of the far-right grouping of the Europe of Sovereign Nations, such as the Alternative for Germany (AfD).

The European far-right constantly complains about the institutions, rules, and bureaucracy of the EU. Many of these parties previously advocated for their countries to leave the EU. However, since the epic events of Brexit, they have usually advocated for changes to the EU from within. This is fertile ground for MAGA.

Ideas for such a transformation were recently jointly put forward by the Polish Institute of Legal Culture Ordo Iuris and the Hungarian Mathias Corvinus Collegium (MCC), closely linked to PiS and Fidesz respectively. The document calls for putting national sovereignty first, approving (or not) all EU decisions unanimously, and stripping the European Commission and the European Parliament of many of their powers. They no longer want to destroy the EU — they want to turn it into a conservative, sovereign bloc that does not create obstacles to their illiberal plans.

These alternative visions of Europe have generated considerable interest in US Republican circles during the Biden presidency. Various Trump organizations have used the time to establish links between MAGA Republicans and the European far-right, particularly in Hungary. The organization behind the infamous Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation, for example, participated in the discussion of the development of the Ordo Iuris — MCC report and held a presentation of it in March at its headquarters in Washington.

All of these things are a challenge for liberal Europe. The rapprochement of the Trump-led MAGA movement and Europe’s far-right means that liberal Europeans now face a two-front war. On the domestic front, the European far-right, emboldened by Trump’s election, is feeling increasingly empowered to push for a transformation of the EU’s institutional core. On the foreign front, the US is using its ties to European political parties as leverage in its trade and regulatory war with the EU.

Part of this effort is the recent US intervention in European politics, including the vocal support and instrumentalization of online platforms. Trump advisor and CEO of X Elon Musk openly supported the AfD in the February parliamentary elections in Germany. His outspoken support did not significantly affect the party’s results, but it did further legitimize the far-right party and its agenda. It also provides a glimpse into what to expect from upcoming elections in Poland, Romania, France, and elsewhere.
But this new far-right transatlantic alliance is not without its problems. Trump is unpopular in Europe, even in countries with strong far-right voter bases. The European far-right itself is divided on many policy issues, and many such parties are traditionally anti-American. While the US under Trump is very different from the US they despise, the president’s “America First” approach could well provoke hostility within their ranks. Trump’s trade war, for example, directly affects many far-right constituencies in Europe.

Of course, far-right parties blame the tariffs on Brussels’ inability to reach a deal with Trump, and they tout their closeness to him as an advantage. Karol Nawrocki, the Polish presidential candidate for Law and Justice, for example, blamed “the EU and European elites” for Trump’s tariffs and promised that if he wins, he “will be ready to discuss tariff issues directly with the United States bilaterally.” Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó told the press that his government “has been negotiating with the United States for several months about special bilateral cooperation [in trade]” and even voted against the EU’s counter-tariffs to emphasize this.

But even when in power, the far-right parties’ proximity to the Trump administration does not give them an easy escape from the political and economic consequences of the North American president’s volatile policies. As Jean-Philippe Tanguy, the chief economic adviser to French far-right leader Marine Le Pen, said: “Donald Trump is putting populism in a negative light. I have always believed that it is toxic and that we need to distance ourselves.”

The negative perception of Trump and his influence on Europe also gives liberal EU players a chance to consolidate their efforts, build broad coalitions, and articulate a compelling case for unity and supranational integration. In doing so, they could destroy the new far-right transatlantic alliance before it can truly take hold. At stake is not only the integrity and economic prosperity of the EU, but also the liberal, rules-based vision of Europe that has been the foundation of peace and cooperation for decades.

I added Maryna Kovalchuk, Deputy Editor-in-Chief (Central Europe and Canada), Project Manager, V5 Media