Drones hit the Progress plant in Michurinsk: why this is a painful blow to the Russian rocket and aviation industry

While Russian propaganda convinces its own citizens that the war is “far away,” Ukrainian drones are increasingly taking out the very thing that keeps this war alive – the factories that feed the front with equipment and missiles. The night attack on the Michurinsk Progress Plant in the Tambov region, which produces high-tech equipment for the Russian Federation’s missile and aviation control systems, shows that deep strikes are no longer about symbolism, but about systematically cutting off the supply chains of the Russian military machine.^{1 2 9} .

What happened in Michurinsk: night, explosions and fire at a strategic facility

According to Ukrainian and Western media, on the night of February 11-12, Ukrainian long-range drones attacked the Michurinsk Progress Plant in the city of Michurinsk, Tambov Region, Russia.^{1 2 9} The regional authorities initially spoke in general terms about “repelling a massive UAV attack,” but local media outlets published videos of a bright fire and a series of explosions on the territory of the enterprise.¹ . Later, the governor of Tambov Oblast, Yevgeny Pervishov, actually admitted the fact of the strike, stating that “the drones were shot down over the industrial zone, where a fire broke out,” a classic formula for Russian rhetoric, which in practice means hitting the target.^{2 9} .

Sources connected to the Ukrainian forces of unmanned systems specify: several strike drones were operating over Michurynsk, some of which flew to the Progress workshops and caused a large-scale fire that was visible for tens of kilometers.^{2 9} Russian Telegram channels reported that the entrances to the plant were blocked, a significant number of fire crews were working, and unofficially, there were injured personnel.^{1 9} Official figures for losses, as always, are kept secret, but even the available video and photo fragments show that the strike was not on an “empty warehouse,” but on production buildings with complex equipment.

What does "Progress" produce and why is it being attacked?

Russian and Ukrainian resources specializing in military-industrial topics characterize the Michurinsk Progress Plant as a key node in the production system of high-tech equipment for Russian missile and aviation equipment.^{3 5 10} The plant manufactures equipment for missile and aircraft control systems: electronic units, switching modules, radio electronics elements, without which modern high-precision weapons simply do not fly to the right place.^{3 10} In parallel, the company produces electrical products for the civilian sector and equipment for oil and gas pipelines, which makes it important for the wider Russian economy, and not just for the front.^{3 10} .

In previous analytical materials, Progress had already appeared as one of the targets of the Ukrainian campaign of deep strikes on the Russian military-industrial complex: back in June 2025, there were reports of the first drone strike on the territory of the plant, a fire, and the closure of traffic around the facility.^{3 7} . At the time, the Russians tried to pass it off as a “local incident,” but the OSINT community recorded signs of more serious damage. The new strike in February 2026 looks like a continuation of targeted work on this node - taking into account the lessons of previous attacks and, probably, more precisely targeting the most critical workshops^{2 7 9} .

How “deep” strikes fit into Ukraine’s strategy

Over the past year and a half, Ukraine has been systematically increasing its capabilities to strike Russian military-industrial complex facilities at depths of hundreds and even over a thousand kilometers — from kamikaze drones of its own design to modified Soviet models and the potential use of Western missiles, where the political framework allows.^{4 7 11} This “deep campaign” has already hit a number of key enterprises: the Raduga plant in Dubna, which produces cruise missiles, the Kronstadt enterprise, where the Orion and Inokhodets attack UAVs are assembled, the Bazalt and Splav artillery concerns, chemical plants and oil refining facilities.^{7 11} The strike on Progress logically fits into this series as an attack on the component base of control systems — something that is not always visible to the naked eye, but is critical to the operation of the entire rocket or aircraft.

According to United24 Media, in 2025 alone, deep strikes on Russia's oil and gas and defense infrastructure caused billions of dollars in direct losses to the Russian economy, not including indirect losses from logistics disruptions and increased costs for repairing and protecting facilities.⁹ The strike on Progress adds another layer to this: even if the plant resumes operations, it will have to replace high-precision equipment that is often under sanctions, making it difficult to import components and forcing Russia to seek bypass channels through third countries.^{3 5 10} In a world where microelectronics and specialized equipment are not lying underfoot, this means months, and sometimes years, of setbacks in certain directions.

Russian reaction: between "successfully repelled" and silent confessions

The official Russian reaction to the attack on the Progress is predictable: statements about the "successful work of air defense", "repelling a massive drone attack" and minimal mention of the "local fire that has already been extinguished"^{1 2} At the same time, the very wording of the governor of Tambov region about a “significant terrorist attack” and the need for a large number of emergency services to work betrays the scale of the incident.¹ . Russian independent Telegram channels and some regional media (until they were cleaned up) published footage of intense burning and reported on the possible evacuation of some personnel and residents from nearby neighborhoods.^{1 3} .

The information background is also characteristic: a few hours before the confirmation of the strike on the Progress, Russian propagandists actively spread news about “another air defense success over central Russia,” trying to create the impression of complete control over the airspace.⁷ . The fact of hitting a plant, which is not so easy to repair and hide, destroys this picture. For the domestic audience of the Russian Federation, this is another signal that the war is no longer limited to the “distant front” and “evacuated Donetsk”, but is stubbornly coming to those regions that for decades perceived themselves as the deep rear.

Strategic effect: slow strangulation of the Russian military industry

A single strike on a single plant will not stop the Russian missile program instantly, but in the logic of a war of attrition, it is the cumulative effect that is important. The strike on Progress should be considered together with the attacks on the Raduga plant, Kronstadt, the Bolkhov semiconductor device plant, and other facilities that provide the Russian army with precision weapons, UAVs, and components for air defense systems and aviation.^{7 11 12} Each such hit means not only the physical destruction of a batch of parts or production tools, but also the disruption of contracts, the redistribution of resources, the flight of qualified personnel, and an additional burden on related enterprises.

For Ukraine, this is a way to partially compensate for the asymmetry of resources: not being able to produce as many missiles and aircraft as the Russian Federation, Kyiv consistently hits the "brain" and "nerves" of the Russian military machine, making each new missile more expensive, longer to produce, and less predictable in quality.^{7 9 12} . Over the horizon of several years, if such a campaign continues, it could mean not only a lower intensity of shelling of Ukraine, but also a weakening of the Russian Federation's ability to project force in other directions. That is why the Russian leadership reacts so nervously to every news about "cotton" in the depths and, in parallel, tries to strengthen the defense of the military-industrial complex, scattering resources between the front and the rear.

Sources

1. Ukrainska Pravda (English): "Ukrainian drones hit military plant in Russia's Tambov Oblast and oil facility in Komi Republic" – confirmation of the strike on the Progress plant in Michurinsk and description of the consequences.
2. NV.ua (English): short news about the attack on a plant in the Tambov region that produces components for aviation and missiles.
3. RBC-Ukraine: “Drones strike strategic Russian Progress weapons factory in Michurinsk: Details” – an extended description of the role of the factory and details of the attack.
4. United24 Media: "Ukrainian Long-Range Drones Strike “Progress” Missile Plant in Russia's Tambov Region" - the context of the deep campaign and the economic effect of strikes on the Russian military-industrial complex and oil industry.
5. Militaryi: analytical materials on the specialization of the Progress plant and its place in the chain of the Russian military-industrial complex.
6. US News / Reuters: news about parallel drone attacks on industrial facilities in the Russian Federation, which form the overall picture of the campaign.
7. TSN / other Ukrainian media: reviews of attacks on Russian defense plants ("Rainbow", "Kronstadt", Bolkhovsky ZPP, etc.) as part of a strategy of attrition.
8. UNN / General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: confirmation of strikes on Russian military-industrial complex enterprises in Taganrog, Dubna and other cities.
9. OSINT channels (Exilenova et al., cited by United24 Media): visual confirmation of fires and nature of damage on the Progress.
10. Regional Russian media and Telegram channels (via citations by Ukrainian media): reports of explosions, fire, and traffic disruptions in the area of ​​the plant.
11. Analytical reports on the war (Glavnoe, others): assessment of the impact of strikes on the Russian military-industrial complex on Russia's military-economic potential.
12. TSN analytics: materials about the strikes on the Bolkhov Semiconductor Plant and their impact on the production of Iskanders and aviation.