Denmark first called the US a possible threat: what happened and why it matters for Europe and Ukraine

When a NATO ally suddenly appears on the same risk list as Russia and China, it is no longer an "analytical formality" but a mirror of how quickly the world is changing, in which even small states openly rewrite their fears and priorities on official forms.

Denmark's Foreign and Military Intelligence Service has named the United States as a potential threat to the country's security for the first time in its annual threat review for 2025.^{1 6 9} The document explicitly states that Washington is increasingly prioritizing its own interests and “using economic and technological power as an instrument of power,” including against allies and partners.^{1 6 14} At the same time, Denmark, without blinking an eye, reminds us that the main threats remain Russia and China, but uncertainty about the role of the US as the guarantor of Europe's security may provoke the Kremlin to intensify hybrid attacks in the region.^{1 9 12} .

What exactly did Danish intelligence write about the US?

In the annual report of the Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) - Denmark's military intelligence - the United States appeared for the first time in the section on "potential security threats", which refers to states whose actions could pose risks to the kingdom.^{1 6 9} Analysts say the US is increasingly using economic pressure, including threats of high tariffs, to impose its will, and "no longer rules out the use of military force, even against allies" in certain scenarios.^{1 14 15} According to Danish intelligence, this approach creates strategic uncertainty for smaller NATO countries, which for decades have taken American guarantees as something almost automatic.^{9 14} .

Particular emphasis is placed on the fact that Washington uses economic and technological advantage as a lever of influence not only on adversaries, but also on partners - through sanctions, export controls, access to innovations, and joint defense projects.^{6 14} Such “instrumentalization” of allied relations, according to DDIS, can cause conflicts of interest even within NATO, especially when it comes to sensitive topics such as the Arctic and energy.^{1 6 9} .

Greenland as a point of tension: why the island suddenly became the key to security

A significant part of the assessment concerns Greenland, the world's largest island and an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, which has long become a geopolitical winning ticket in the Arctic.^{1 6 9} Danish intelligence recalls that US interest in the island has grown rapidly amid increasing rivalry between major powers in the region and climate change, which is opening up new sea routes and access to resources.^{1 6 12} The report specifically mentions US President Donald Trump's statements that control over Greenland is an "absolute necessity" for US national security and that even a forceful scenario is possible if "economic arguments" fail.^{1 6 15} .

It was after a sharp intensification of American rhetoric regarding Greenland that a special "night monitoring" system was introduced in Copenhagen to track activity in the Arctic — from unusual flights and ship approaches to cyberattacks on infrastructure facilities.^{6 12} The report emphasizes that any attempt by the US to play the Greenland card too harshly could put Denmark between a rock and a hard place: between its alliance obligations and its own sovereignty.^{1 6 9} .

Russia and China as the main threats: priorities have not changed

Despite the loud headline about the US, the authors of the Danish report clearly emphasize: the main military threat to Denmark continues to come from Russia, and the strategic challenge from China.^{1 9 12} Intelligence warns that the military threat from Russia to NATO is expected to grow, and uncertainty about the role of the United States as the key guarantor of European security is only pushing Moscow to more aggressive actions, including hybrid attacks against Allied countries.^{9 12 16} The Baltic Sea region, which includes Denmark, the Baltic states, Poland and Germany, has been called the “highest risk zone” where Russia could resort to forceful action or large-scale influence operations.^{1 9} .

China, for its part, is seen as a long-term challenge through economic expansion, high-tech projects, and attempts to increase influence in the Arctic region and in infrastructure projects in Europe.^{9 12} . Danish intelligence records that Russia and China remain the main sources of espionage, cyberattacks and influence operations against Denmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands, while the US appears on this list in a different context - as an ally whose actions can create risks, rather than as a classic adversary.^{9 12 17} .

How Denmark sees the "American factor" in Europe

A separate section of the report is devoted to how the change in American policy affects European security: Danish analysts directly write about doubts about the stability of the US role as an "umbrella" for NATO.^{9 14 15} This is compounded by the statements of the Donald Trump administration about a more “transactional” approach to allies: if European countries do not increase defense spending and do not support specific decisions from Washington, they cannot count on automatic protection.^{14 15} For Denmark, which is geographically located at the junction of the Baltic and the North Atlantic and controls access to the Baltic Sea, such uncertainty turns from a headline in the report into a completely material risk.^{1 9} .

Danish experts remind that a few years ago, the threat from the US was considered only as a theoretical scenario - for example, in the event of a sharp change of course in Washington or statements about reducing commitments to NATO.^{14 15} Now, amid statements about the possibility of a partial troop withdrawal, a review of aid to Ukraine, and increased pressure on European economies due to trade disputes, these risks are described for the first time as a factor that must be taken into account in defense and foreign policy planning.^{6 9 14} .

Espionage, cyber operations and the Arctic: why the list of threats has become longer

In parallel with assessing the US as a possible risk, Denmark points to a general increase in threats from foreign intelligence: from classic espionage to cyberattacks, illegal acquisition of technology, pressure on the diaspora, and information campaigns.^{9 12 17} Against this background, PET — the Danish Police Security and Intelligence Service — has been publishing separate assessments of the espionage threat for several years, where the main players are Russia and China, as well as Iran, but it is noted that other states also carry out intelligence activities on the territory of the kingdom.^{12 17} . The latest documents emphasize that the objects of interest are not only military and political structures, but also universities, research centers and private businesses.^{12 17} .

The Arctic dimension adds another ingredient to this cocktail: the struggle for control over future Arctic Ocean transport corridors and access to resources on the shelf.^{1 6 9} . The Danish report notes that the US, Russia and China are actively increasing their military and economic presence in the Arctic, and any crisis in the region will automatically affect Greenland and, accordingly, Denmark.^{1 6 12} That is why American interest in the island is seen not only as an opportunity, but also as a risk if it takes on too aggressive or unilateral forms.^{6 12 14} .

Why is this important for NATO and for Ukraine?

The fact that a NATO member country like Denmark officially includes the United States on the list of potential threats becomes a mirror of a much broader process - the erosion of automatic trust within the Alliance.^{6 9 14} For other European states, this is a signal to prepare for scenarios in which American support may be limited, conditional, or tied to purely domestic political cycles in Washington.^{14 15} For Ukraine, which is critically dependent on American military and financial aid, the Danish report is also important: it once again emphasizes that the issue of European security is increasingly being discussed as a problem “within the system”, and not only as a confrontation with Russia.^{9 12 16} .

At the same time, the document directly states that it is the uncertainty about the role of the United States that may push Russia to more active hybrid activities: from cyberattacks to sabotage of critical infrastructure, including gas pipelines and cable networks in the Baltic Sea.^{1 9 16} Against the backdrop of the explosions at Nord Stream and numerous incidents with suspicious vessels, this warning sounds like a very concrete, not a theoretical, remark.^{10 16} For Ukraine, this means that the western rear is also nervous — and the more unstable the American line looks, the more European capitals will look at their security and support for Kyiv through the prism of their own risks.^{9 12 16} .

How the world reacted to the Danish report

The publication of the report has already caused a wave of comments in the international media: Bloomberg, CNN, Reuters and a number of European publications noted that such wording regarding the United States appears for the first time in official documents of a NATO ally.^{1 6 9} Some analysts interpret this as Denmark's desire to insure itself in advance against possible political changes in Washington, including further disruptions around support for Ukraine and commitments in Europe.^{9 14 15} Others see this as a sign of a deeper transformation: European allies are less willing to accept the US as a “natural” leader and increasingly see it as a powerful but unpredictable partner.^{14 15 19} .

American official structures are reacting with restraint so far: diplomatic sources speak of "careful study of the text" and emphasize that cooperation with Denmark remains "strong and mutually beneficial."^{6 19} At the same time, the very fact that such formulations even have to be commented on shows how far the world has come from the period when the United States was automatically considered the unconditional guarantor of security for all its allies.^{9 14 19} .

What does this mean for the future of European security?

Putting emotions aside, the Danish report says a simple thing: Europe is entering a period when it will have to simultaneously live with the Russian threat, Chinese pressure, and the unpredictability of American policy.^{9 12 15} For Denmark, this means strengthening its own defense capabilities, investing in countering espionage and cyber threats, and striking a careful balance between close cooperation with the United States and protecting its own space for maneuver — especially in Greenland and the Arctic.^{1 6 12} For the EU as a whole, this is another argument in favor of strengthening “strategic autonomy” — not as a replacement for NATO, but as an insurance policy in case the American “umbrella service” suddenly becomes more expensive or unstable.^{9 14 15} .

For Ukraine, such openness by Denmark is both a challenge and an opportunity: on the one hand, Europe sees even more clearly that its security cannot depend on the mood of one capital; on the other, Kyiv will have to work even more actively with European partners, who are already including scenarios with weaker or more selective US participation in their strategies.^{9 12 16} In such a configuration, the Ukrainian issue ceases to be an “Eastern European problem” and finally becomes a test of the continent’s ability to think independently about its security — and to honestly name threats even when they come not only from the East.^{9 12 16} .

Sources

1. Meduza: "Denmark called the US a possible security threat for the first time"
2. European integration Ukrainian media: retelling the key points of the Danish intelligence report on security threats
3. Kurs/Ukrainian news portals: materials on the assessment of the USA as a potential threat in the DDIS report
4. CNN: Publications on Danish intelligence report and emphasis on the roles of the US, Russia and China
5. NDTV and other international TV channels: news that Danish intelligence first described the US as a possible risk
6. Bloomberg: “Danish Spy Agency Now Views US as a Possible Security Concern” — analysis of formulations about US economic and technological pressure
7. Ground / world news aggregators: a brief overview of the Danish report on the rise of external threats
8. Official materials of the Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS): annual threat reviews and assessments of the role of the USA, Russia, China and the Arctic
9. PET (Danish Police Security and Intelligence Service) publications: Espionage threat assessment against Denmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands
10. Materials on the investigation of sabotage on gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea (in particular, Nord Stream) in the European press
11. Reuters, Washington Examiner: articles about doubts by Denmark and other allies about the stability of the US role as the guarantor of Europe's security
12. New York Times: “Danish Intelligence Report Raises Concerns About US” — an interpretation of the report’s authors’ motives
13. International Arctic Security Think Tanks: Analysis of US, Russian, and Chinese Competition in the Arctic and Greenland
14. Reviews by Politico and other analytical media about the US's "transactional" approach to allies and its impact on European armies
15. European security think tanks: publications on the consequences of US policy uncertainty for NATO and support for Ukraine
16. International Cybersecurity Research: Hybrid Threat Assessment for the Baltic States and Northern Europe
17. Biographical and official sources on the status of Greenland and its importance for the Kingdom of Denmark and NATO
18. Comments from experts in European media on changes in the perception of the US as the leader of the Western world