Fuel prices will rise: when should drivers prepare for +2 UAH/l and what is behind the new wave of price increases

When the gas station scoreboard is still calm, but the numbers in contracts and the law leave no doubt

The beginning of 2026 passed without any shock jumps in fuel prices, but the market is already operating under new rules: since January 1, excise duties on gasoline, diesel and autogas have been increased in Ukraine, and oil prices are rising on world markets amid geopolitical turbulence.^{web:467 web:470} Experts warn: if the current trend with rising Brent prices and weakening hryvnia takes hold, in the coming weeks Ukrainian gas stations may add an average of up to UAH 2 per liter to the price tags for gasoline and diesel, while the price increase for gas will be somewhat softer.^{web:462 web:472} Formally, "time X" has already arrived - excise taxes have been in effect since January 1, but the real wave of retail price correction is only gaining strength, tied to contracts, inventories, and traders' behavior.

What has already changed: new excise taxes and the first signals from gas stations

The key factor determining the new price reality on the fuel market is the increase in excise duties, stipulated by current legislation and Ukraine's European integration obligations.^{web:467 web:470} From January 1, 2026, the excise duty rates per 1000 liters are: for gasoline – 300,8 euros (versus 271,7 euros previously), for diesel fuel – 253,8 euros (was 215,7 euros), for autogas – 198 euros (instead of 173 euros)^{web:467 web:475} This is not cosmetics: we are talking about tens of euros for every thousand liters, which networks will one way or another include in the final price for the consumer.

At the same time, changes on gas station shelves are still restrained: according to specialized monitoring data, A-95 gasoline in mid-January is sold on average at 58,4–58,5 UAH/l, which is only a kopeck higher than the level at the beginning of the month.^{web:474 web:468} Autogas, on the other hand, has already shown its first reaction to the new excise taxes – its average retail price has increased by approximately 30 kopecks per liter, while gasoline and diesel are still being held back by old stocks and a reduction in the markup.^web:475 .

How much can prices increase: market forecasts

Market analysts agree on the assessment: the base scenario is a fuel price increase of 1–2 UAH/l in the coming weeks, provided that external factors do not worsen.^{web:462 web:471} The founder of the Prime group of companies, Dmytro Leushkin, indicates that the potential for growth to UAH 2/l is realized if Brent oil rises to USD 68–69 per barrel and the hryvnia to dollar exchange rate weakens to about UAH 44/dollar.^web:462 According to him, under such conditions, chains will already be "forced" to adjust retail prices.

Similar assessments are voiced by Serhiy Kuyun, director of the consulting company "A-95": wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel have already increased by approximately UAH 2/l, and if the situation with oil and the exchange rate does not change, the retail segment will inevitably rise to new levels.^{web:462 web:463} This is not a one-time jump, but a gradual "rewriting" of price tags as gas stations switch to fuel from new contracts.

Why the excise tax increase didn't hit prices instantly

The legislative decision on excise duties is already in effect, but the fuel market does not switch on like a light in a room. Experts emphasize: in the first weeks of 2026, networks live off stocks purchased at old rates and partially reduce trade margins so as not to provoke consumer panic against the backdrop of winter bills and energy risks^{web:471 web:468} That is why at the beginning of the year, the increase in excise taxes formally "did not lead" to a sharp increase in prices at gas stations.

However, this is not a cancellation of the effect, but a postponement. As the cheaper resource is exhausted and new batches of fuel are purchased taking into account increased taxes and more expensive oil, only those networks with better logistics contracts and turnover will be able to gain time.^{web:467 web:473} For the rest, price adjustment becomes a matter of business survival, not choice.

World oil and hryvnia exchange rate: a double blow to cost prices

Internal taxes are not the only, and not always the strongest, factor. The prices of oil and oil products on world markets and the exchange rate of the hryvnia against major currencies play a significant role in the allocation of gas station costs. As of mid-January, Brent oil is trading at around $66 per barrel and has a tendency to rise against the backdrop of protests in Iran and the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East.^web:462 . In parallel, the official hryvnia exchange rate has already approached the mark of 43 UAH/USD and remains under pressure due to military risk and the seasonal factor of energy imports.^web:462 .

Experts estimate that the weakening of the hryvnia and the rise in oil prices alone have already “added” about UAH 1,5–2 to the cost of a liter of fuel – even before the full effect of excise taxes has passed through to retail.^{web:462 web:472} If these factors do not reverse, further price containment becomes a matter of the strength of the financial cushions of large chains and competition in local markets.

Demand, generators and winter: why the "scary scenario" of shortages didn't work

Another variable is demand. In 2022–2023, Ukrainians have already felt what the fuel market looks like on the verge: queues, restrictions, gaps in logistics. At the beginning of 2026, the situation is different. Yes, the use of generators against the background of long power outages increases the consumption of diesel and gasoline, but this effect is partially offset by the traditional winter decline in mobility^{web:462 web:468} According to market participants, in terms of sales volumes, the country has reached the level of the conditional "June", while the peak months - July-August - are still ahead.

Leushkin emphasizes that logistics, despite problems with the shortage of fuel trucks and a tight delivery schedule, is currently coping; the networks' reserves, combined with expected deliveries, do not pose a threat of a physical shortage.^web:462 This avoids another price accelerator – panic buying – and keeps the market closer to a “planned price increase” regime, rather than a shock jump.

What official forecasts say: the position of the NBU and the parliament

The National Bank directly warns in its macro forecasts: in 2026, fuel prices in Ukraine will increase significantly due to the increase in excise taxes, although the timing and scale of the correction depend on the situation on external markets and the exchange rate.^web:466 The NBU considers the increase in fuel prices as one of the factors of inflation, which will operate for several years in a row, while Ukraine brings excise rates closer to European ones.

Member of the Parliamentary Committee on Finance and Customs Policy Oleksiy Leonov estimates the direct effect of increasing excise taxes for 2026 within the range of 1–2 UAH/l for the main types of fuel^web:470 He emphasizes: this is a forced step within the framework of European integration obligations, which will simultaneously allow adding approximately UAH 14–15 billion to the budget due to increased excise revenues.

Why do some experts believe that prices may increase less?

Amid the “scary” forecasts of up to +2–3 UAH/l, more restrained voices are also being heard. Some analysts suggest that competition between networks and limited solvent demand may force gas stations to take part of the blow, sacrificing margins.^{web:468 web:473} An additional argument is the growth in fuel sales: the more liters you can sell, the easier it is to "spread" the increased costs per unit of goods.

In such a scenario, the price increase will remain closer to the lower estimates (1–1,5 UAH/l) and will be spread out over time, rather than happening all at once.^web:468 But even in this case, the trend towards rising fuel prices throughout 2026 remains irreversible: the basic tax and global conditions are changing, not just the short-term situation.

Autogas, gasoline, diesel: which will become more expensive faster?

The first "reaction" of the market was autogas: due to a shorter circulation cycle and sensitivity to excise taxes, its prices at gas stations have already increased by an average of 30 kopecks per liter since the beginning of the year.^web:475 For many drivers, especially taxi drivers and commercial vehicles, this is already a tangible signal, because gas is often chosen as a cheaper alternative to gasoline.

Gasoline and diesel, according to experts, will catch up later, but the higher excise component and more expensive resource on global markets mean that their contribution to the final check will be more noticeable.^{web:462 web:472} The expected average price increase of 1,5–2 UAH/l in the coming weeks is not only about taxes, but also about the price of the risk of war, unstable exchange rates, and global energy turbulence.

What this means for family and business budgets

For households that drive 50–100 liters per month, an extra UAH 1,5–2 per liter will mean an additional UAH 75–200 in monthly expenses. Against the backdrop of utility bills and rising food prices, this does not seem like a disaster, but it adds to the overall pressure on the family budget, especially in large cities, where cars are often not a luxury but a necessity.^web:462 For small and medium-sized businesses with a large fleet (delivery, logistics, service companies), even such "small" changes multiply by tens of thousands of kilometers and turn into a tangible expense item.

In the longer term, more expensive fuel will push businesses to save on logistics, review routes, partially electrify fleets, and plan trips more accurately.^{web:468 web:473} For urban infrastructure, this could mean a new round of discussions about public transport, parking and incentives for switching to more fuel-efficient cars.

How drivers can prepare for new price tags

At the individual level, the room for maneuver is not unlimited, but it is there. Experts advise to be more careful when planning trips, combine routes, monitor the technical condition of the car (tire pressure, engine oil quality, timely maintenance), which allows you to save up to 5–10% on fuel consumption in real city conditions.^web:468 A separate point is the use of loyalty programs and bonus systems of gas station networks, which can partially mitigate the effect of price increases.

For those who are just planning to change their car, fuel price trends are an additional argument to take a closer look at fuel-efficient engines, hybrids, or electric vehicles where infrastructure and budget allow.^web:473 Fuel in Ukraine will not become cheaper in the coming years – and this should be factored into the calculations just like taxes or insurance.

Is a price reversal possible in 2026?

Theoretically, a certain price pullback is possible in the event of a sharp drop in oil prices or a strengthening of the hryvnia - for example, after positive signals regarding the security situation or large-scale financial injections from partners.^{web:462 web:471} But even then, the excise component will remain elevated: this is a parameter already built into the system that does not depend on the operational situation.

A more realistic scenario is short “respites” or local promotions of networks against the background of a general upward trend.^{web:467 web:470} Ukraine is gradually bringing fuel tax rates closer to the European level – and this means that the era of a relatively cheap liter of gasoline or diesel is just as surely a thing of the past as the era of cheap electricity.

Sources

1. Minfin.com.ua: "Due to the increase in excise taxes, fuel in Ukraine will become more expensive in 2026" - the structure of new excise tax rates, assessment of their impact on retail prices^web:467 .
2. TSN.ua: "In Ukraine, excise taxes on fuel, cigarettes and sweet drinks will increase in 2026: how prices will change" - Oleksiy Leonov's comment on the expected price increase of 1–2 UAH/l and the fiscal effect^web:470 .
3. OBOZREVATEL: "Ukrainian gas stations will cancel current gasoline prices: the NBU told what to prepare for" - the National Bank's forecast for a significant increase in fuel prices in 2026 due to excise taxes^web:466 .
4. Informant: "Prices at gas stations in Ukraine will increase significantly already in January: a terrible forecast from experts" - estimates by Dmytro Leushkin and Serhiy Kuyun about the potential for growth of up to 2 UAH/l if oil prices rise and the hryvnia devalues^web:462 .
5. TSN: "Gasoline and diesel prices will rise in the coming days: expert explains the reasons" - analysis of wholesale price dynamics and forecast of retail price growth by the end of January^web:463 .
6. UNN: "Increase in excise duties on fuel from January 1: expert answers whether we should expect an increase in gasoline prices" - current excise rates on gasoline, diesel and gas from January 1, 2026 and the first changes at gas stations^web:475 .
7. OBOZREVATEL: “Prices at Ukrainian gas stations: what is happening with gasoline and diesel” – the current price level for A-95 gasoline and other types of fuel in mid-January 2026^web:474 .