Central Asia. Leaders. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

Exclusive. Against the background of formal and official news of varying degrees of specificity about the strengthening of cooperation and comes to Kazakhstan investments from China, Germany (712 million euros), Malaysia, Qatar, the Netherlands (accumulated $120 billion in investments!) and South Korea, as well as the growing state investment in the production of rare and rare-earth metals, a few articles about existing difficulties attract attention. Summarizing their array, which is relatively small, the following can be noted.

- The legal base, especially in terms of protecting the rights of minority shareholders and intellectual property, is not perfect enough in Kazakhstan. This is not fatal, but requires knowledge of bottlenecks and precautionary measures taken in advance.

- Despite catastrophic floods this spring, a number of regions of Kazakhstan are experiencing water shortages. At the same time 44% of Kazakhstan's surface water resources are replenished from sources located outside the country. This creates a long list of problems that should be considered when investing in agriculture.

- For 10 years, from 2013 to 2023, the share of foreign investments decreased from 33,5% to 18,9%, which is due to the completion of the construction of large oil and gas projects in the western regions. In order to change the situation with the attraction of investments in the non-raw sector and move away from the raw model of development, it is necessary to significantly restructure the economy and phase-by-stage localization of high-tech production. And this rests on a long series of problems: personnel, household, tax, etc.

In other words, the extensive stage of the development of Kazakhstan's economy has basically been passed. New investments make sense only in the intensification of production, and this stage has not yet been launched, and now there is a pause. There was nowhere to invest according to the old schemes, and new spaces for investments have not yet been fully created and earned. Thus, investments in fixed capital in the field of railway freight transportation in Kazakhstan in the first quarter of 2024 decreased by half compared to 2023 - saturation has come. A transition of the economy to a new quality is necessary - both at the general technological level and along the length of technological chains.

Politically, Kazakhstan is difficult to balance, moreover, in a situation where there is simply no unequivocally successful solution. Thus, Astana removed the "Taliban" movement from the list of terrorist organizations, "based on the consideration of the importance of trade and economic development cooperation with modern Afghanistan» - and also, although this was not said directly, and with China, where they show great interest in Afghanistan. Undoubtedly, this will trigger retaliatory actions in neighboring countries - first of all, in Tajikistan.

Also, Kazakhstan refused to extradite to Ukraine the killer who attempted to assassinate the oppositionist Aidos Sadykov, who had received asylum in Kyiv, and then voluntarily surrendered to the Kazakh authorities. True, Tokaev promises to help in the investigation, but it looks more like a write-off. The question of who was Sadykov's client remains open, but the presence of a Russian trace is very likely.

On the other hand, the Kazakh authorities are forced to suppress pro-Russian separatist activities, causing gnashing of teeth in Russia, but, if possible, without bringing the situation to a serious aggravation. Thus, at the beginning of June, two pro-Russian activists who called in February 2024 on the Internet to hold a referendum on the separation of the East Kazakhstan region from the Republic of Kazakhstan were sentenced to five years in prison "for calling for a coup d'état and separatist activities." The Kazakh authorities cannot afford not to respond to such appeals, having a 7500-kilometer poorly guarded border with Russia, Russian missile ranges and areas designated for dropping parts of Russian missiles on their territory, as well as three million ethnic Russians out of Kazakhstan's 20 million population.

Uzbekistan

If Kazakhstan is the economic leader of the region, then Uzbekistan takes a solid second place, which, given its size, is an excellent indicator. The general picture in this country, in general, is similar to Kazakhstan: there is a desire to diversify the investment portfolio and economic cooperation, diluted China's influence; There is a mutual interest of the parties, and there is some investment growth. But everything is going slowly, and China remains the No. 1 partner for now. From the new: on June 17-19, a delegation from the Khorezm region, headed by the head of the territorial department of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, visited Poland. But this, again, is only guesswork and mutual groping.

It is also interesting that 4 branches of leading South Korean universities are successfully operating in Uzbekistan, and more than 11 thousand Uzbek students are studying in South Korea. This also somewhat erodes the influence of the People's Republic of China, although its scale remains the largest in this area.

He is trying to maintain his position in Uzbekistan and Russia. On May 27, Putin, commenting on the Russian-Uzbek talks in Tashkent, said that direct Russian investments in Uzbekistan have reached almost $10 billion and are growing every year. In practice, there are no prospects for Russia in Uzbekistan, except for the supply of Russian gas to Uzbekistan through Kazakhstan, and the construction of channels for the supply of sub-sanctioned products to Russia, which will be revealed and closed under the pressure of Western countries.

The direction of labor migration from Uzbekistan is changing, leaving Russia.

First, salaries in Uzbekistan itself, especially in the construction industry, have grown so much that it has become unprofitable to go to Russia. The number of Uzbek labor migrants in Russia has decreased from 4 to 6 to approximately 1 million.

Secondly, Uzbek guest workers are opening the EU labor market for themselves, while mainly Latvian and Polish ones. Yes, Latvia is currently conducting an organized recruitment of 600 Uzbek truck drivers.

Anvar Rakhimovanalyst CAI (Tashkent), for Newsky