Did Israel win the 12-day war with Iran? FT: Without the collapse of the regime in Tehran, it is questionable

Twelve days of war, hundreds of missiles, dozens of destroyed facilities and thousands of dead - but can we call it a victory? As the smoke cleared over Tehran and Jerusalem, and world leaders rushed to declare "peace", it became clear: the strategic dilemma between Israel and the US has not disappeared. The FT and leading international publications analyze why, without the collapse of the regime in Iran, Israel's "victory" remains only a temporary illusion.

The “12-Day War”: What Happened and Why It’s Not the End

The conflict between Israel and Iran, which has already been dubbed the “12-day war” by the world media, began with surprise strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and quickly escalated into a large-scale exchange of missile attacks. The US intervened by striking three of Iran’s nuclear facilities, and Iran responded by shelling a US base in Qatar and launching a new wave of missiles at Israel. ZN.ua, RFE / RL, Al Jazeera.

The ceasefire announced by Donald Trump was only a pause: within a few hours the parties accused each other of violations, and the US president for the first time publicly criticized the Israeli government for a "serious violation" of the terms of the agreement. ZN.uaThis was a notable departure from Washington's traditional support for Israel and exposed the tension in relations between the White House and Netanyahu.

Military results: Israel's tactical victory, but not strategic

Israel announced the achievement of all the objectives of the operation: the destruction of key nuclear and missile facilities, the elimination of part of the Iranian military leadership, complete air superiority. Mossad demonstrated the ability to penetrate deep into the Iranian security structures, and American B-2s with “bunker” bombs became a decisive factor in the destruction of underground facilities. RFE / RL, AP News.

However, despite the scale of the destruction, Iran's nuclear program was not completely destroyed: some of the highly enriched uranium (over 400 kg) was evacuated, and the underground infrastructure of Fordo remained intact. RFE / RL, ReutersBrookings Institution experts warn that these materials could become the basis for a covert nuclear program, and a military strike does not solve the problem completely.

Iran: Defeat without collapse, new motivation for the regime

Iran suffered catastrophic losses: part of its nuclear, missile, and drone infrastructure was destroyed, a significant part of its military leadership was eliminated, and its air defense system was rendered powerless against Israeli strikes. RFE / RL, Al Jazeera. But most importantly, the regime in Tehran survived without collapsing. This only strengthened the Iranian leaders' belief in the danger from Israel and the United States and gave new impetus to restore military potential and legitimacy within the country.

Restoring its nuclear and missile programs, as well as its network of proxy groups, will become a strategic priority for Tehran, even if it is extremely difficult. ZN.ua, Al Jazeera.

USA: “peacemaker” or player without control?

Donald Trump has positioned himself as the architect of the ceasefire that “stopped the war” and saved the Middle East from disaster. But his willingness to publicly accuse Israel of violating the ceasefire and sharply address both sides has come as a surprise even to allies. ZN.ua, Financial TimesThis exposed the tension in relations between Washington and Netanyahu, and also showed that the US does not control the situation in the region as it used to.

The comparison with the Six-Day War of 1967, which Trump actively uses, has a double implication: just six years later, in 1973, Israel again found itself at war with Egypt and Syria. ZN.ua.

Can we talk about Israel's victory?

Analysts at the FT, RFE/RL, Al Jazeera and elsewhere agree: Israel has achieved a tactical victory, but strategically it remains in the same trap. Without regime change in Iran or a radical overhaul of its policies, Israel’s “victory” remains in question. ZN.ua, Al JazeeraIran has not suffered a final defeat, and Israel and the United States are forced to look for new ways to ensure peace in the region.

The idea of ​​peacemaking has lost popularity in Israel since the Hamas attack in 2023. Netanyahu's strategy is a bet on regional hegemony, but for a country with a population of 10 million surrounded by hundreds of millions, this will always be a precarious advantage. ZN.ua, Newsweek.

The world's reaction: fragile peace and new risks

The truce looks fragile: within hours of its announcement, the parties accused each other of violations, and experts warn of the possibility of a new escalation. RFE / RL, Washington PostThe international community is calling for the resumption of negotiations, but trust between the parties is at a minimum.

The problem of nuclear weapons also remains unresolved: part of Iran's stockpiles have disappeared from the IAEA's field of vision, and the military path does not guarantee complete control. RFE / RL.

Conclusions: What's next for Israel, Iran, and the world?

The “12-day war” was a test for all players. Israel demonstrated military power, but did not solve the main problem - the existence of a hostile regime in Iran. Iran lost resources, but retained power and received a new incentive to restore military potential. The United States lost its monopoly on control of the region. The main risks are a new arms race, the threat of nuclear proliferation and continued instability in the Middle East.

Without radical change in Tehran or a new diplomatic architecture, Israel's victory will remain incomplete. The world has received another reminder: no war solves strategic problems without political change.

Sources

ZN.ua,
RFE / RL,
Al Jazeera,
AP News,
Reuters,
Al Jazeera,
Financial Times,
Newsweek,
Washington Post