Why did China abandon logistics routes through Russia?

Exclusive. China has reduced its use of logistics routes via Russia, primarily due to mass seizures of goods by Russian customs since October 2024. Russia has tightened controls on the transit of goods, especially mechanical and electronic products that may be considered dual-use goods (potentially usable for military purposes). This has led to the seizure of a significant number of Chinese goods, which has undermined the confidence of Chinese suppliers in this route. According to Andrew Jiang, CEO of Shanghai-based Air Sea Transport, rail shipments have been suspended since November 2024 due to these problems.

In addition, Western sanctions have complicated transit, as some of the confiscated goods have remained in Russia due to export restrictions. This has paralyzed logistics flows, as up to 80 containers are transported to Europe via Russia every month. Against this backdrop, China and Kazakhstan have opened an alternative rail route through Turkmenistan, Iran and Turkey, and are also actively developing other bypass routes through Central Asia and the Caspian Sea, in particular the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TMTM).

An additional factor is the geopolitical situation, in particular the Russian-Ukrainian war, which has made routes through Russia less safe and economically profitable. China, seeking to avoid risks and sanctions restrictions, is reorienting itself to new logistics corridors that ensure stability and uninterrupted supplies to Europe.

As of August 2025, the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TCITR), also known as the Middle Corridor, is actively developing and is undergoing significant expansion and modernization.

Institutional development

The TMTM project was officially launched in 2013 with the establishment of a Coordination Committee, and has been operating as a multimodal route (rail and sea transport) since 2017. In 2023, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Kazakhstan agreed to establish a joint company to facilitate the transit of goods, which will contribute to better coordination.

In June 2025, a meeting of the TMTM Development Working Group was held in Warsaw, where key agreements were reached on deepening cooperation, in particular in the digitalization of logistics processes and the stability of shipping in the Caspian Sea.

Infrastructure improvements

The route's capacity currently stands at 6 million tons of cargo per year, but by the end of 2025 it is planned to increase it to 10 million tons, as well as up to 200 containers per year.

Kazakhstan is investing in the modernization of the ports of Aktau and Kuryk, the creation of a container hub in Aktau, and the expansion of its own ferry fleet. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has allocated 2023 billion euros to Kazakhstan in 1,5 for the development of transit infrastructure.

New ferry routes are planned between ports on the eastern and western shores of the Caspian Sea (for example, with the port of Neftechala in Azerbaijan) in 2025–2026.

Growth in transportation volumes

In 2022, cargo transportation volume increased 2,5 times to 1,48 million tons, and Kazakhstan's exports via TMTM increased 6,5 times. In the first half of 2023, 1,7 million tons of cargo were transported, which is 85,3% more than in the same period of the previous year.

In 2024, the volume of container transportation from China to Europe increased 14 times compared to 2023, and delivery times decreased: from Altynkol (Kazakhstan) to Baku - 9 days, to the ports of Georgia - 12 days, to Constanta (Romania) - 20–22 days.

International support

The European Union actively supports TMTM, allocating 10 billion euros for the development of transport connections in Central Asia, Transcaucasia and Turkey to replace Russian routes.

China sees the TMTM as a key element of the Belt and Road Initiative, contributing to the economic development of its western provinces.

The US, UK and Turkey also support the project, seeing it as a way to reduce dependence on Russian transport routes.

The project's shortcomings include a lack of unified coordination, delays at customs, outdated infrastructure, and high transportation costs. In 2023, a decline in transit container traffic was observed due to these problems. It is planned to reduce transit time to 11–13 days by increasing speed, reducing tariffs, and simplifying customs procedures. In 2025–2026, the number of container trains is expected to increase to 600 per year between Kazakhstan and China. TMTM is considered a regional, but not a major transcontinental route, contributing to the economic integration of the countries of Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Turkey.

Thus, TMTM is at a stage of active development with a focus on infrastructure modernization, increasing capacity, and attracting international investment. However, to fully compete with other routes, logistical and coordination constraints need to be eliminated.

Mykhailo Koval, observer