Brussels fights for Serbia, Moscow for Montenegro

Exclusive. Until Belgrade trying to hold on on the pillar expensive integration into the EU and digests the terrible example of Georgia, hung by the collective West on the hook of the parliamentary elections on October 26 - Putin's agents stirred in Montenegro. Over the past ten years, tens of thousands of Russians have moved here (and "Russians" - sometimes it is difficult to distinguish immigrants from different countries of the former USSR), which is very significant for a country with a small population. And it seems that immigration has become an electoral factor. But, as you know, extreme political circles in Belgrade do not lose hope of returning Montenegro, even despite the fact that it became a member of NATO (however, Serbian planning has always been distinguished by dreaminess and irrationalism), because, for example, the Montenegrin Orthodox Church has not yet received autocephaly. This means that Montenegro is vulnerable (since a considerable part of its citizens continue to consider themselves Serbs). Since the second half of the 2010s, Serbia, which has been squeezed by Moscow, even tried to go all-in. But while the professional community anxiously followed Belgrade and, as a rule, in the direction of Kosovo, problems crept in from the other side.

Thus, on July 13, the Supreme Court in Podgorica handed down an acquittal to the defendants in the case of preparing a coup d'état during the parliamentary elections in October 2016. The demand for a putsch became known after the elections, in November 2016, when the Montenegrin prosecutor's office announced that a group of "nationalists from Russia" was preparing an attempt on the life of the Prime Minister of Montenegro Milo Djukanovic. Russians Eduard Shishmakov and Vladimir Popov were named as the organizers, who wanted to prevent the country from joining NATO and tried to bring the pro-Russian opposition to power. They were accused of creating a criminal organization for the purpose of committing crimes (Part 1 of Article 401a of the Criminal Code of Montenegro) and terrorism (Article 20, Part 1 of Article 447 of the Criminal Code of Montenegro). Shishmakov was also charged with incitement to commit an act against the constitutional order and security of Montenegro (Part 2 of Article 24 and Part 1 of Article 373). According to the investigation, they gave the accomplices money and instructions through the Serbian nationalist Aleksandr Sindjelic - he eventually became the main prosecution witness. Among the alleged conspirators were the leaders of the opposition coalition of the "Democratic Front" party Andriy Mandych and Milan Knezhevich, as well as the party's translator Anania Nikichu, who was granted asylum by Russia.

What were the grounds for the acquittal? None. The reason for this judicial disgrace is exhaustively explained by another, not at all legal, circumstance.

On July 24, the Parliament of Montenegro approved the updated composition of the government - it included representatives of Serbian radical and pro-Russian parties: New Serbian Democracy, the Democratic People's Party and the pro-Western Bosnian Party. The Serbian People's Party (SNP), representatives of the Albanian parties, the centrist "Democrats" and "Dvyzhenie Evropa Seijs" (PES), headed by Prime Minister Milojko Spaich, remained in the coalition. Pro-Russian parties received two vice-premier and three ministerial positions, Bosnians - one vice-premier and five ministerial. Almost all deputies from opposition parties, in particular the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), the Public Movement of the URA (GP URA), the Social Democrats (SD), and the Croatian Civil Initiative (HGI), did not participate in the vote.

For some reason, Prime Minister Spaich expects that changes in the government (which has already collapsed more than once after elections with extremely close results) will contribute to improving the well-being of citizens and accelerate the movement of Montenegro to join the EU. Although it is clear that until the return to power of Milo Djukanovych (or some of his successors from the DPS), serious progress in the field of European integration can be forgotten. Montenegro can be gradually pulled into the same trap as Hungary, Slovakia, Georgia, and in the past - Moldova and Armenia (not to mention long-suffering Ukraine). This is when the Russian agents, calmly strolling in freedom, blindly put sticks in the wheels of this integration, covering themselves with demagoguery about their supposedly democratic values ​​and "personal path" and "cultural code". A special path, as is known, is the trajectory of a well-dressed night club visitor to the basement toilet, and the "cultural code" is the psychoanalyst's number in the contact list. Getting out of such a rut can be damned difficult - as the example of wild Russia demonstrates to us every day (where such turns as in Georgia or Montenegro are undoubtedly applauded).

Fortunately, however, all Montenegrin governments in opposition to Djukanovic were extremely short-lived, and democratic control from NATO, in theory, will not disappear anywhere. And while Vučić, thinking about how he will pay off China, is surrounded by demonstrators opposing the policies of the mining company Rio Tinto, and Putin is having fun with the Palestinian leader Abu Mazen, these two factors must again play their role: after all, in Montenegro there is no Ivanishvili, and Mylojko Spaichu is still very far from the one who managed to establish a one-party dictatorship in Hungary. And European integration in Podgorica is much more serious than that in Belgrade, trying to get to Europe without soap: with the non-recognition of Kosovo, with Chinese and Russian investors, with the Russian intelligence center in Niš, with Orban's virus in the political and economic systems, and so on. So it is possible that Montenegro will be able to get out: if, of course, in Brussels they will keep this issue in the field of vision, and not let everything go by itself, as it happened throughout the 2010s.

Joseph Gayichanalyst Candidacy Assessment Institute (CAI), Podgorica, for Newsky