2 trillion in 2 weeks - the economy does not respond to the orders of the Kremlin?

If you like statistics and professionally read business news, then you cannot laugh at those "onolithegs" who gloat about the "sudden" growth of the Russian ruble or only indicator of growth in the economy of the Russian Federation (this is the agricultural sector).

At first, the ruble grew against the background of a total collapse of imports (something about 50%) with a simultaneous continuing decrease in export volumes.

Secondly, as for the agro-industrial complex, it actually accounts for about 5% (2013% in 4) of the Russian economy. Thirdly, ordinary people and semi-state banks collected dollars, the first peak of debt payments abroad this year passed, now legal entities need rubles for tax payments, and individuals for household expenses. Prices at the same time continue to accelerate, and salaries and incomes fall, as well as GDP (rate at stagflation!).

Meanwhile, the Central Bank does not reduce turnover at all expenditure of reserves, however (like the Ministry of Finance, like the Ministry of Economic Development, like all state system banks) behaves like a desperate cheater.

How and in what is it expressed? Let's assume that the crisis is filled with funds from the reserve not registered, as currency interventions. For example, from March 27 to April 3, reserves "just took and decreased" by $ 5,5 billion. And the volume of both reserve funds for the month of March is approx to $ 10 billion. And this has nothing to do with fluctuations inside the bi-currency basket, or anything else similar. And by the way, two reserve funds, this is on April 3 - 42,7%. funds of the amount that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation indicates as its reserves, but which it cannot use.

However, these manipulations are not presented as interventions.

But the concealment of interventions and the use of funds from state reserve funds - these are just two methods. In fact, the government of Russia is trying to put out the fire of the crisis, including with "medical alcohol", which is unpredictable in this situation ordinary budget funds.

It is easy to prove if you have the desire and ability.

Let's leave behind the gargantuan losses of Russian companies, mass layoffs in the state and private sector, the default of Russian regions for approximately RUR 107 billion, the decline of foreign trade, the sagging of deals and the loss of access to technologies. These are separate topics.

Let's analyze the financial and economic news of Russia on the almost neutral RBC, for example, March 26 to April 10 inclusive In two weeks without the effect of the weekend.

First, briefly about foreign currency. $ 18 billion Russia directs into the currency pool of the non-working BRICS organization, in which it itself barely overtakes South Africa. Another $110 million - this is a new loan for the government of Belarus. Expenses, let's say, for maintaining the image of a global and regional leader. Let's write it down - $18 billion.

Now rubles.

So, RUR 300 billion "recapitalization" of Vnesheconombank (VEB)

RUR 167 billion The Central Suburban Passenger Company is asking state funds for the purchase of new trains. And he will get it, because its shareholders are completely state-owned, and its funds are also state-owned.

RUR 100 billion The United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) will receive Superjet for support that no one needs and as a gift.

But there is not enough money for everyone, so the Duma would like to withdraw this amount trillion rubles, provided for the refinancing of banks this year. However, the banks themselves lack a trillion (Moody's expert opinion)! Since the trillion was foreseen last year, then we will not consider ego. And here are the new demands – both of the banks and the UAC, we will, because they will receive them, because the authorities have nowhere to go.

On the contrary, banks need at least additional RUR 40 billion every hour in 2015-2017 Including

Additionally and separately —  RUR 100 billion The banks required funds from the Ministry of Finance to subsidize questionable mortgage loans - and the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation agreed.

RUR 93 billion the debts of 71 subjects of the federation on budget loans were restructured by the Russian government. This is less than half of what is needed, but they don't look at the teeth of a gifted horse.

RUR 60 billion - this is the approximate amount of compensation for the difference in the transfer of problematic loans from foreign currency to rubles, which the Central Bank agrees to give to commercial banks. The protests of borrowers robbed by devaluation are painfully annoying.

RUR 26 billion received VTB from the National Welfare Fund (NFB) for the construction of the Central Ring Road.

RUR 17 billion - allocated by the government to small and medium-sized enterprises

RUR 15,7 billion  - rehabilitation of Mosoblbank, funds allocated by the Central Bank

RUR 10,7 billion the government will spend on the purchase of motor vehicles for state needs

RUR 10 billion the government contributed to the charter capital of the odious "Rosselkhozbank", which is under sanctions and has squandered huge funds from budget programs.

RUR 6 billion Regions will receive funds from the Housing and Communal Services Reform Assistance Fund under the emergency housing liquidation program.

RUR 5 billion the government allocated small innovative enterprises

RUR 4 billion -- received from state funds "Rostelecom"

RUR 1 billion — "Rossets"

RUR 1,5 billion The Central Bank allocates 51 banks for preferential car loans

They thought that the Mikhalkovs would not be given money for "Edym doma", because everything turned out to be painfully scandalous, and vice-premier Dvorkovich was against it? AND who is it? Anyway...

RUR 700 млн - will select a profile state agency.

RUR 300 млн - the budget of the Moscow region.

Funny 55 млн spent on... the image of the Ministry of Health

As a result - RUR 958 billion 450 million. In dollars - $ 18 billion.

A month ago, the amount of funds in the Reserve Fund was estimated at 4,72 trillion rubles, or $77,05 billion, the amount of funds of the National Bank was 4,59 trillion rubles, or $74,92 billion. Thus, in March, the total amount of funds in the Reserve Fund Fonde and FNB decreased by 539 billion rubles. Or at 5.78%. In general, it is clear where and how much was taken.

Now let's combine these two amounts - RUR 1,918 trillion or $36,11 billion.

Those who have been painted, and those who have already flown away For two weeks. We will not extrapolate - extrapolation would mean that December Russia will turn into a hopeless bankrupt. So far, the situation is developing within the framework of already rather old prediction of Sergei Guriev - k in November, the reserves will show the bottom, the financial and banking system, despite constant stimulation, will be destabilized.

How to compare these numbers? If with the general international reserves of the Russian Federation, it was used up in two weeks more than 10%. If the Central Bank has its own reserves, that is about 20%. If with the revenues of the budget of the Russian Federation, then after the fresh sequestration - 15.3%. If with military expenses - then 58.3%. In two weeks.

But the pilot who closed himself in the cockpit could no longer be stopped. Now the trap crisis is entering the phase of growing deficit of goods and services with falling purchasing power, growth of "gross" demand for imports in the conditions of the failure of import substitution (in the current Russian conditions it is foolish to talk about it - there is no ego for the same reason that Andrey Heim and Konstantin Novoselov is not in "Skolkovo"), which means the next cycle of devaluation, only with less possibilities of its control.

Because the basic external and internal conditions of economic activity in Russia did not change for the better, but worsened. It is possible to throw away another $100 billion or even $200 billion to the council refusal of reforms, Putin's rating and the notorious stability. But why, if a large-scale sequestration of the budget has been carried out and the social stability of the grassroots is already shaken?

One often gets the impression that the Russian authorities insane. Apparently, they consider themselves some kind of Keynesians...

Only crazy people could simply burn $36 billion in two weeks - after all, this is more than Zuckerberg's.

And, it seems, they intend to do it further.

Maxim Mykhaylenko

photo from the site: render.ru